I feel like sealed product will always continue to go up, but singles may retrace, as packs get opened, more singles will be in the system but less sealed product will be available.
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Is it really a “speculative frenzy” when the PSA 10 chase card sells for 500% the cost of the box?
In June, the box was $120 and the Charizard was $1500- which is is 1150% return… I’d say the box price is catching up to the PSA 10 cards.
Yes. Because only 3% of copies submitted to PSA actually get a PSA 10. So the PSA 10 Charizard value is more or a less a non-factor in terms of the EV of the box.
Aside from that, it’s insane to be pay 5x MSRP for a box that was printed as heavily as Evolutions was, of which an unbelievable amount is being hoarded, and (most importantly) that could be reprinted at any point. The fact that the box is worth as much as it’s currently worth is because of speculators. This is clear because this was a product that was readily available at MSRP for the past four years. The fundamentals of the product haven’t changed in the past two weeks.
I have a thread that has been following the rise of this box since July. It’s not the lasts two weeks. However, what has changed in the last several weeks was alluded to by @gottaketchumall several months ago. He noticed the distribution chain was tightening up, and that his in particular would be out by October:
www.elitefourum.com/t/evolutions-box-is-120-while-its-psa-10-charizard-is-1500/28300/12
www.elitefourum.com/t/evolutions-box-is-120-while-its-psa-10-charizard-is-1500/28300/69
People love to say the product was hoarded, etc. but don’t offer any proof. Who’s hoarding? Who’s to say that just as many people bought and opened it? What we can see right now is that the demand for this set is clearly high enough to send a “mass produced” booster into the territory we see it now. (FYI all booster boxes are mass produced)
At the end of the day, every out of print box raises in value.
All modern sealed product is being hoarded. If you don’t believe me, join any Pokemon TCG Facebook group and see the astonishing hoards of modern product many people have amassed. People are investing their life savings in sealed Modern Pokemon product. More sealed product is being kept sealed for ‘investment’ purposes than ever before. Do you genuinely believe that modern sealed product isn’t being hoarded en masse? If you need proof, I can screenshot and post literally hundreds (if not thousands) of examples of people who have publicly posted their hoards of modern sealed product. I didn’t realize this was a controversial observation.
“Every out of print box raises in value” – this has historically been true. But the current conditions are such that this may not remain true. I’ve witnessed a very similar thing happen in Magic. Starting in 2013-ish, ‘investing’ in sealed MTG product started becoming more popular and widespread. Incidentally, very few (if any) sealed Magic products from 2013-onward have outperformed the S&P 500 whereas many pre-2013 sealed products have. My guess, based on past experience, is that there will be a glut of supply sealed modern Pokemon product in 5-10 years relative to the demand that will then exist for it.
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I’m about to get in a base set box from someone wanting me to sell it for him. By the time he shipped it and I get it, he might have made another $5,000.
This is the time we are in. Congrats to all who held. It will not last (of course) but what a time.
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Basically, vintage all the way!
It’s not so much controversial as it is you can’t believe everything you see on the internet. A picture only tells half the story.
How many of those hoarders are actually hoarding vs. flexing on a forum and selling as soon as they can make $1 a box more than they paid?
How appealing was it to hold onto their cardboard when they lost their job and had real bills to pay?
Life has a way of smacking your plans around a bit.
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True, because of the print-run - though, it somewhat changes if Nintendo bring in signature cards or even 1st edition ~
Compared to Modern? Absolutely. But don’t think vintage is 100% safe either. People are underestimating the supply and the amount of people who simply aren’t yet aware of the current state of the market. This is specifically directed at Unlimited Base, but it honestly even applies to sets like Jungle/Fossil/Team Rocket (even in 1st Ed.). The less volatile sets are naturally going to be lower supply sets (anything Neo through EX). Early WotC sets may outperform those sets, but early WotC is more subject to price volatility because of the supply.
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Sure, if demand was uniform throughout the wotc sets. We cant look at demand for WOTC has one big bucket.
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Of course. No one has exact numbers about how much product is being hoarded. But it’s significant – certainly on the order of tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of boxes worth of sealed product. Consider this: how much would, say, an EX Sandstorm box be worth if there were 20,000 more boxes in existence? The supply absolutely could not be absorbed at the current $5k a box. Honestly, the boxes might not even be worth $500 each. And this is for a 17 year old set with low PSA pops and a very low supply of raw mint cards. Now consider the future prospects of modern boxes: high psa pops, high supply of raw mint cards, and much more than 20,000 sealed boxes worth of product being kept sealed. I wouldn’t touch modern sealed product ‘investing’ with a ten-foot pole. But this is just my perspective; follow your instincts.
Demand is not uniform – you’re correct. But the lower supply, the more resistant something is to price volatility. Consider, for instance, if interest in collecting Pokemon cards uniformly dropped by 90%. The market for Base Unlimited cards would become saturated, and prices would drop like a rock. Would trophy card prices drop? Possibly. But not nearly to the degree that the highest supply cards will.
The same principle applies to sealed product. Base Unlimited boxes are inherently more subject to price volatility than, say, EX Deoxys boxes. If, hypothetically, the demand for Base Unlimited boxes dropped by 90% and the demand for EX Deoxys boxes also dropped by 90%, the Base Unlimited box would be much more severely impacted. That’s just a function of the economic reality of supply and demand – it has nothing to do with personal opinion.
Base Unlimited boxes are pure gold in a time like this where there’s tons of interest in the hobby. If this level of interest remains constant, the higher-demand, higher supply items will vastly outperform better than the lower-demand, lower supply items. This is what has happened and what is continuing to happen. But if interest drops off, lower-demand/supply items will be less adversely impacted.
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That depends on if the arbitrage of the box is there. For base unlimited, light packs selling at $500 easy means a box would be bought up at 20k all day, regardless of organic demand.
The same is currently happening with modern product. Evolutions for example, a PSA 8 Charizard just sold for $500 alone from a $450-500 box. Even if the organic demand is in the toilet, it’s worth anyone’s time to buy it, break it and piece it out.
In addition to the factors I mentioned in the previous post, the longer that opening boxes for arbitrage makes sense, is just one more factor for less sealed product hoarding.
Could this thread be kept as more of just a guide for known sales, offers and approximated valuation?
It’s a gold standard item for the hobby and it deserves a thread like the PSA 10 1st Ed set thread. I don’t think it needs an OP that is kept up to date religiously or a running value or anything but comparisons to Skyridge and other unnecessary speculation and predictions just dilute the actual solid information, particularly with this item and it’s variants where historically you can go through phases where this information is difficult to find.
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Preach xuzu
And guys chill on quoting a million paragraphs just message each other through the inbox
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The point of a forum is to have a public place to share your ideas/knowledge/questions surrounding a hobby.
There is the whole forum for that. OP was quite specific and the thread is in a specific subforum for the purpose laid out.
So this sub forum should be renamed from Price and Market Discussion to what? Price and Market Short Answers Only?
@pokenoob, maybe you should be renamed to guy_who_doesn’t_read_OP
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