as people like rudy also is noticing, pokemon demand is huge. 30k for the most iconic and recognizable box is not an accident. don’t be surprised that this box continues to go up till at least end of 2020, into 2021. same goes for those charizards. i mean just look at the auction prices right now for pwcc for all the variants of base set.
As I stated in another thread: when Base Unlimited becomes too expensive, people will then shift towards Base 2 (I know right?!) and Jungle and Fossil - which they have already; then possibly Team Rocket due to Dark Charizard (still very underrated), and those who are still in the hobby and do their research will learn of the low-print run of the Neo sets and Skyridge ~
The price gap has narrowed a lot, though. Skyridge was $25k when Base was $5k (just earlier this year). Now Base is ~$30k and Skyridge is ~$45k. If the Base box price maintains over time, then one would expect Skyridge to have a lot of room to potentially increase in value even more. And if the Base box price climbs even more, then Skyridge almost has to increase because it’s just not right for Base boxes to be worth as much as Skyridge boxes lol.
After the events of Logan Paul bringing a great deal of attention to the hobby in October? Nope ~
For example, a 1st Neo Discovery box sold for $13k in July 2020 on Collector’s Cache, and an opened Skyridge box went for $22k on eBay in August. This week 1st Team Rocket went past $16k and 1st Fossil $17k, respectively.
People get too hung up on ratios holding over time especially since the ratios dont have a ton of history and are just pulled from a choice period in the past 12 months generally.
I agree that ratios don’t have to hold up over time. Just because a Base box is $35k doesn’t mean a Skyridge box has to be $175k. Of course not. But price ratios of comparable items (i.e., sealed WotC booster boxes) don’t naturally go from 5:1 to 1.25:1 within a matter of a few months. Obviously items won’t move exactly in tandem. But this is not natural price movement. The obvious conclusion is not that the Skyridge box is deflated, but that the Base box is inflated by ongoing speculative investing that simply isn’t targeting Skyridge.
Skyridge is very niche compared to Base or some of the other more popular sets. I’m not saying it doesn’t have room to grow, but I would not expect a 5:1 ratio ever again at current Base prices.
I agree that the 5:1 ratio is not going to happen with current Base prices. But Base boxes have just about doubled in the past couple weeks, so what the Base box will settle at is still very much unclear. It could go up to $50k or could go down to $10k. Neither would surprise me at all.
Yes, for the same reason that anything/Base ratio has tanked over the past month: Evolutions boxes are the target of an ongoing speculative frenzy, whereas others boxes aren’t (or at least not nearly to the same extent).
Price floor is an interesting concept for any asset. I have one base box but frankly wish I had another so I had more long term flexibility with the product. I am not a buyer at $30k+ but I think very many of us would be if for whatever reason prices slipped. The question is where does the bottom support come in after the most recent price increases. My assumption would be that the floor would be a lot closer to $20k than a $10k number but that of course would be up to the buyer pool.
Definitely interesting. Although I have a personal aversion that will keep me from ever being a buyer at more than a few thousand:
So let’s just say I have a personal bias when it comes to Unlimited Base lol. Regardless, I think the floor is definitely lower than $20k. The box was $10k just a few months ago. And it could retrace to $10k and STILL be double what it was worth last year lol. Most people who own the box don’t realize that it’s now worth nearly this much. I know this from personal experience. I paid ~$400 for my Ruby box, ~$250 for my Power Keepers box, and ~$450 for my Unlimited Gym Heroes box back in 2014ish. And I had zero clue that they were worth a penny more than I paid for them until last fall lol. People not currently involved in the hobby don’t have any clue about the state of the current market.