Tracking EX Series Booster Box Prices

[zorloth]

@dareisay

@zorloth

Troll and Toad just updated their buylist prices on boxes within the past week – I know this because I’ve been keeping data on their buylist prices on a weekly basis for ~7 months now. Not sure about D&A’s obviously, but their buylist prices seem to be pretty current. I put the buylist prices in the original post, btw. As you said, definitely a good way to establish floor prices for items.

Ah! Ok, good to know.

Oh! Oops, sorry about that. I must have missed that while writing out the list that I posted.

Would you like me to delete the list that I posted since you put the buylist prices in your original post?

Not necessary, unless you want you .

[nearmintpokemon]

I remember purchasing that TRR box for 24k about a month ago. Your ex dragon box purchase was one of the motivating factors lol. Glad to see someone who loves the ex era as much as I do.

[zorloth]

@nearmintpokemon

I remember purchasing that TRR box for 24k about a month ago. Your ex dragon box purchase was one of the motivating factors lol. Glad to see someone who loves the ex era as much as I do.

That’s awesome to hear! TRR is my dream box; so jealous haha. Amazing purchase.

And I’m glad to see that I’m not alone in loving the EX Series

[nearmintpokemon]

It’s a really wonderful set. As a fellow set collector, I also wanted to keep it incase I needed to open it to complete the set. I’ve personally found it to be the most difficult to complete of the ex era sets (post ex dragon/aqua magma where reverse holo scratches are so easy, but I got really lucky and finished those up earlier on).

I’ve always enjoyed seeing your insight and discussions about collecting cards from the ex era. Hope you find a box and complete your collection goals at some point!

[qwachansey]

Something I have wondered: at what point does a box become rare enough that as a collectors’ item, intended for keeping as a sealed box instead of doing a box break, the previous price is irrelevant? For most of these boxes, they are already at a premium beyond 36x a booster pack price, and for some they are well beyond the “best possible” pulls (every optimized ex, holo and gold star could grade a psa 10 and still not cover the cost).

The member with the EX Deoxys box here mentioned that if they sold, they would never be able to re-obtain. Let’s say I am going for a sealed ex booster box collection in 2025, and a dozen EX Delta Species boxes have sold publiclly btwn 2021-2024. The price has already reached “irrational” pricing, in that the contents at current prices, regardless of pulls or grades, could not cover the cost. So who is to say I would not have to pay double the previous price?

[modestmudkip]

And dont forget all boxes will go up in value at least a bit when cgc starts grading packs. Some people will open their boxes, keep the heavies and grade all 24 lights. Even with rare boxes this will definitely happen

[modestmudkip]

maybe one day theyll grade boxes like vga does and then those with patience will finally be rewarded

[zorloth]

@qwachansey

Something I have wondered: at what point does a box become rare enough that as a collectors’ item, intended for keeping as a sealed box instead of doing a box break, the previous price is irrelevant? For most of these boxes, they are already at a premium beyond 36x a booster pack price, and for some they are well beyond the “best possible” pulls (every optimized ex, holo and gold star could grade a psa 10 and still not cover the cost).

The member with the EX Deoxys box here mentioned that if they sold, they would never be able to re-obtain. Let’s say I am going for a sealed ex booster box collection in 2025, and a dozen EX Delta Species boxes have sold publiclly btwn 2021-2024. The price has already reached “irrational” pricing, in that the contents at current prices, regardless of pulls or grades, could not cover the cost. So who is to say I would not have to pay double the previous price?

I think that your observation is basically that some of the rarest booster boxes will behave more like trophy cards. If you sell one, there’s no reasonable expectation that you’ll be able to re-acquire it for the same price (at any point – even immediately after selling it).

At this point, the quantity of some of the boxes are so limited that the sum of the parts (those being booster packs) are totally divorced from the value of the sealed box. There’s a reason why an EX Deoxys box is worth as much as a Skyridge box and it’s not because the EV is remotely near that of Skyridge. As you stated, it’s just a super rare item that, if someone wants it for the sake of having it, they have to pay whatever the people who own that box would be willing to sell it for.

[zorloth]

@modestmudkip

And dont forget all boxes will go up in value at least a bit when cgc starts grading packs. Some people will open their boxes, keep the heavies and grade all 24 lights. Even with rare boxes this will definitely happen

I agree that this will happen with some boxes, but not with something like a Deoxys or TRR. I honestly doubt that a single Deoxys box, for instance, will be opened for the sake of grading the packs. At this point, if someone opens a Deoxys box, they’re opening it because they want the experience of opening it. Because once the shrinkwrap is off, you’re not making your money back.

[milad101]

*stares at my 2 opened deoxys boxes from years ago* haha oh well

[modestmudkip]

@zorloth

@modestmudkip

And dont forget all boxes will go up in value at least a bit when cgc starts grading packs. Some people will open their boxes, keep the heavies and grade all 24 lights. Even with rare boxes this will definitely happen

I agree that this will happen with some boxes, but not with something like a Deoxys or TRR. I honestly doubt that a single Deoxys box, for instance, will be opened for the sake of grading the packs. At this point, if someone opens a Deoxys box, they’re opening it because they want the experience of opening it. Because once the shrinkwrap is off, you’re not making your money back.

If cgc 10 packs go for a lot, there are no other ways to get these set packs in a 10. Plus the bonus of getting to keep the heavies yourself. I think people would go for it

[zorloth]

@modestmudkip

@zorloth

I agree that this will happen with some boxes, but not with something like a Deoxys or TRR. I honestly doubt that a single Deoxys box, for instance, will be opened for the sake of grading the packs. At this point, if someone opens a Deoxys box, they’re opening it because they want the experience of opening it. Because once the shrinkwrap is off, you’re not making your money back.

If cgc 10 packs go for a lot, there are no other ways to get these set packs in a 10. Plus the bonus of getting to keep the heavies yourself. I think people would go for it

But the value of the sealed box will always be more than the value of 36 CGC 10 packs. Because the box can, at any point, be converted into the latter, but the latter can never be converted into the former. I doubt that people will do it with the rarest boxes, but it’ll be interesting to see what impact it has.

[littellthe3rd]

@modestmudkip

And dont forget all boxes will go up in value at least a bit when cgc starts grading packs. Some people will open their boxes, keep the heavies and grade all 24 lights. Even with rare boxes this will definitely happen

Any word on when CGC will grade packs? Personally I wouldn’t send my cards there to be graded but would probably try out sending a couple light packs I have.

[modestmudkip]

@littellthe3rd

@modestmudkip

And dont forget all boxes will go up in value at least a bit when cgc starts grading packs. Some people will open their boxes, keep the heavies and grade all 24 lights. Even with rare boxes this will definitely happen

Any word on when CGC will grade packs? Personally I wouldn’t send my cards there to be graded but would probably try out sending a couple light packs I have.

Most up to date answer we have is “soon”

[cedar]

@zorloth

@modestmudkip

If cgc 10 packs go for a lot, there are no other ways to get these set packs in a 10. Plus the bonus of getting to keep the heavies yourself. I think people would go for it

But the value of the sealed box will always be more than the value of 36 CGC 10 packs. Because the box can, at any point, be converted into the latter, but the latter can never be converted into the former. I doubt that people will do it with the rarest boxes, but it’ll be interesting to see what impact it has.

I want to hear more opinions on this. The sum of 36 PSA unlimited fossil packs seems to be a lot more than the box. For TRR the box is more (granted not much sales data). I can see @zorloth point when there’s only a handful of boxes left.

[zorloth]

@cedar

@zorloth

But the value of the sealed box will always be more than the value of 36 CGC 10 packs. Because the box can, at any point, be converted into the latter, but the latter can never be converted into the former. I doubt that people will do it with the rarest boxes, but it’ll be interesting to see what impact it has.

I want to hear more opinions on this. The sum of 36 PSA unlimited fossil packs seems to be a lot more than the box. For TRR the box is more (granted not much sales data). I can see @zorloth point when there’s only a handful of boxes left.

If 36 PSA Unlimited Fossil packs are more than the value of the box, then that’s just a market abnormality. Markets are sometimes slow to adjust, and that sort of thing gets worked out over time.

[caslon]

@zorloth

@thatblastoiseguy

@zorloth , EX Deoxys is a little closer to USD 20,000 - there’s a box that exists locally, and I know the seller tried to move it locally and through Virbank but failed to do so. From there, I guess we derive the value of the rest of the boxes in relation to this + whatever was recently sold. This was 1-2 months ago.

I do feel that the ex-series is quite undervalued though, in relation to the price movement that we’ve seen in base. Thus, ex box prices could really be a mixed bag, as recent purchases are probably more reflective of what people are missing from their collections or something rather than which set is the most valuable/is the most popular.

Each pack has a reverse holo, which is minimum $20 in PSA 9 and minimum $40 in PSA 10. Assuming a 50/50 split

what an assumption i mean ex sucks dont buy it

[modestmudkip]

@caslon

@zorloth

Each pack has a reverse holo, which is minimum $20 in PSA 9 and minimum $40 in PSA 10. Assuming a 50/50 split

what an assumption i mean ex sucks dont buy it

if theres a 20k box Im sure it would be gone. Heck Id buy it immediately. Probably anyone would. If it cant sell for 20 somethings off with the box

[caslon]

@modestmudkip

@caslon

what an assumption i mean ex sucks dont buy it

if theres a 20k box Im sure it would be gone. Heck Id buy it immediately. Probably anyone would. If it cant sell for 20 somethings off with the box

what i meant is 99% of the revs will be psa 8 or lower

[zorloth]

@caslon

@modestmudkip

if theres a 20k box Im sure it would be gone. Heck Id buy it immediately. Probably anyone would. If it cant sell for 20 somethings off with the box

what i meant is 99% of the revs will be psa 8 or lower

That’s not true at all – most will be PSA 9 and a decent amount will get 10s. The only issue with Ruby Sapphire is the obnoxiously thick horizontal print lines (not sure if this is what they’re called – not similar to print lines from WotC holos). But those aren’t on most cards.