There’s a thread called Debunking No Rarity Japanese Base Set. Has all the sources and everything.
You’re pretty much right but the chances of there actually being a short pack with No Rarities still around,is equivalent to a legit pre release raichu existing. Both are possible but highly unlikely to exist.
Read the article I linked to. Basically, if we apply the same logic to deck boxes then when we opened one deck box and didn’t find no rarity cards we would conclude that they don’t come from deck boxes. Therefore, they don’t come from anywhere?
That footage proves that short packs don’t guarantee no rarity cards, however; with the rest of the evidence we have it’s hard to say it’s impossible to pull no rarity cards from short packs.
*I don’t want to get into this debate about whether or not they come from short packs. I’m tired of debating the point on this forum. The evidence has been presented in the links, make your own decision.*
Yes @teraz, perhaps my reference was too esoteric.
The phrase goes something like, “all swans I’ve ever seen are white, therefore all swans must be white”. This statement uses inductive reasoning to come to a [false] conclusion and is commonly used to demonstrate the faults of inductive logic.
This was in reference to the statement about short packs never containing no rarities. You can make a probabilistic argument such as the probability of pulling no rarities from short packs is extremely low but it’s impossible to say you cannot pull them based on inductive reasoning alone. Having to explain this makes me seem pedantic, but really my original post about swans was just supposed to be a cheeky remark
Yeah I know I am not stupid
That why I wrote this in the thread that I linked:
Anyway people who still think that no rarity cards come from short booster packs speculate.
But yeah, it is maybe easier for reseller to say « hey buy my short booster pack at a premium price because it may contain no rarity cards » even if they have no evidence of it