With a card like this I don’t see a drop like that happening, maybe a 10-15% retrace but not a 50-60% retrace. Take for example that PSA 10 version, that card doesn’t feel like it should be a 20k card currently, but it is. Once someone pays that much for a card this scarce, it basically becomes the new price floor. The entry price for an owner to even entertain replying to your offer starts at 20k. There’s only 44 of them, so you have to find someone motivated to sell or blow them out of the water with a deal they can’t refuse. The 9 has a lot bigger chance to retrace but people spending this much on cardboard usually aren’t willing to sell for that kind of loss. They will just hold them. There are people offering 50k plus for PSA 10 Charizards in the buy section, I haven’t seen someone even entertain one of those offers, though I could be wrong. For whatever reason this Rayquaza is becoming one of those cards.
It should be closer to one out of 6 boxes (since there are 3 gold stars in EX Deoxys)? Either way, 144 is not that small of a pop. But there’s probably a portion of those that have been cracked for sets or re-submission, so it’s probably closer to 125ish.
PSA 9 Shadowless Charizard 2017 part 2.
Congrats to the new owner of the card. As long as you like the card, who’s to say what it’s value is and how much you should’ve paid. Hopefully you’ll cherish this item for years to come 
one data point 4k above the recent sales = new value for the card
I’m not saying it’s going to happen… just correcting your faulty logic that I see all the time lately. There are 144 PSA 9’s. As far as I understand 143 of them have been acquired for sub $4k. 1 has been obtained for $7k+. Tomorrow 143 psa 9 rayquaza could sell anywhere from $500 to $4k all while their owners profit on the transaction. Individual people don’t have to lose money for a card to retrace 10, 30, 50, or even 90%+. Just older owners have to sell. There are probably a couple dozen people who own that card at a literal cost basis of <$100.
Again I’m not calling for psa 9 gs ray to fall to $500 but it literally could without a single person losing money because there are 143 other owners that could make it happen many while making a bunch off what they paid for it. This same goes for every single card out there.
I think this is the best way to look at it. I have cards that I could undercut market value by 50% and still double what I invested into it. That’s just me; I’m sure many people who have been around for longer could show much more impressive numbers than that. With this $7k sale there is HUGE incentive for others to list theirs on the market. Even when they undercut others’ prices, they’re still making a killing. An extreme jump like this could easily see people willing to and trying to sell at $5k or $4k for people who thought $3k wasn’t enough.
@chok commented on this above, but this really smells like the PSA 9 Shadowless Charizard pricing situation that happened in late 2017. I bought mine on the way up for what I believe to be a record price at the time - $1250. Within a few months it shot up to nearly $3k. I thought I was lucky I got in when I did, but market availability was extremely low. A sudden jump in price resulted in many people selling their copies, driving the price back down to around what I paid for it. It has since slowly climbed back up and, now with recent market activity, has finally reached that $3k point again. I would be willing to bet that almost no individual lost money in all of that. Sure I lost some opportunity/cost of capital by not selling high and buying back at the low point but that’s hindsight… I just wanted the card, so I kept it.
Of course Rayquaza and Charizard have different people collecting them, different populations, and generally different profiles. The buyer who set the record price seems happy with his purchase and probably isn’t going to panic sell if the card’s price enters free fall and certainly won’t bat an eye at a small retrace. I don’t think there are really any losers here.
true, in theory. but if it is a desirable enough card, people may just hold. like the 1st edition base psa 10 charizard. when that card went from about 5k to 20k then to 40k, i think less than 20 transactions took place in those 4 years, with a pop of 120.
I think this is a good example to carry on what @gottaketchumall is trying to illustrate and also a good reason why to wait for a period of market consolidation when prices go 4x with little sales in between.
One of the holy grails of basketball card collecting is the 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan rookie card (pop 311) in PSA 10.
From June 2018 to March 2019 the price of the card was stable between 18-23k mark. From April 2019 to April 2020 the card slowly rose from 23k to 45k, with many sales incrementally increasing on the previous sale. On the 19th of April 2020 “The Last Dance” aired on Netlfix, a documentary series on Michael Jordan. Following on from the release these are sales prices:
May 5 - 96k + buyers premiums
May 15 - 90k
May 15 - 90k
May 19 - 85k
May 21 - 87k
May 21 - 70k
May 28 - 70k
May 31 - 71k
Currently there’s 5 available fixed priced listings at: 80k BIN, 89k BIN, 90k OBO and 95k OBO and 1 for auction currently at 55k. Not to mention a plethora of BGS 9.5s at the 35k-50k mark.
If you were the buyer of any of the 80k+ cards you would be 17% - 27% down in value and quite possible more depending on future supply and auction results.
In terms of the Rayquaza and applying the above, I’d wait for a few more sale at or around the same price before saying this is the new market price. It’s jumped too much to be considered the new norm when 100+ copies are in the profit.
Edit: for anyone who comes back here, the one for auction sold at 65.6k. Another sold at 51k (was an auction by a 1 feedback seller)
Completely agree with this. And with @chok, comment about the shadowless zard situation.
Don’t listen to what these seasoned members are saying. Everyone knows card prices only go up forever. They are just trying to trick you into waiting for the next $1000 sale meanwhile they are putting together the capital to buy the next one at 8k and cutting you out as competition.
