That’s extraordinarily optimistic short of a major resupply. Not even Special Delivery Charizord fell that low (Special Delivery Charizard #SWSH075 Prices | Pokemon Promo | Pokemon Cards) and that was a situation where individual resellers had thousands of copies due to a Pokemon Center exploit. This is just a better promo too, to the point where the demand crosses over to Japan. I agree that demand will fade over time, but so will supply, It doesn’t take long for resellers to sell the 5 extra copies they were lucky enough to get.
Here’s the cheapest copy I could find on ebay right now. I actually just bought one this morning for $100USD from a fellow Canadian seller in case my 1 Pokemon center order falls through. $100 seems more than fair for one of the most thought-out English promos ever released.
A few days ago they dropped to 50usd on ebay already.
Maybe i am too optimistic but i think this card is currently printed so much to meet demand. Combine that with the fact that in a few months there is definitely a new ‘stonker’ card where demand goes that i could see 25 - 50 usd price range. But yes this is way better than special delivery Charizard imo.
I think as of right now we really have no clue how many they made. Everyone’s basing numbers off of the merch selling out quickly, but that’s not really reliable. With how hard the website was hit, we have no idea if there were thousands or tens of thousands of each item.
I think we’ll have to wait until people actually start getting their Pokémon Center orders in to have any real idea of distribution. Their tweet also implied they were out of merch but not cards, or that they will print more cards. Either way their intention seems to be to distribute more.
In six months, I don’t see this card staying above $50. There will be many printed over the coming weeks and something new and interesting will be catching everyone’s eye by then. And in 9 months, we’ll have more clamor over Worlds, so why would anyone be thinking about this specific promo?
It was sitting at $80 for most of that day. I would not characterize the trend since the 29th as a “drop” at all. It has increased a modest amount. That doesn’t mean it will continue to increase or can’t fall in price, but that’s situation currently.
I sincerely think that there is an underestimation of the demand here. You could add a 0 to the print run total and I am not fully convinced that would cut the price to $50. It appears there are a lot of people betting and waiting on the price falling. There are a lot of buyers today at $100, how many more buyers will there be (and how many copies will they buy) if it hits $50?
It’s correcting to a price where it cannot sell immediately. Further assumptions are based on unknowns when the exhibition has only been a week, not even halfway through
I’m not sure why they’re different, but the sales were legitimate. I saw them being sold as they were happening in real time.
@koala We aren’t in disagreement here. The price will correct to wherever supply/demand meet. Seeing that there are 3 full months left in the exhibition, and TPCi’s commitment to making the promo widely available, I’m less optimistic on the price holding at $100 than others.
For the record, that’s not my stance. I just wanted to provide an argument that additional supply or time might not drop the card as much as people hope. I’ll point to SDC again
It started really high and fell really quickly when people discovered the Pokemon Center exploit. It basically held stable at that point for over a year.
Interesting thing to @Dyl’s point is that while SCD was not available for under $40 on eBay, every week one could buy a code for $7.99 and then run another $20 order through Pokémon Center or several orders if you have several payment methods/addresses. So even though the price never went below $40 on eBay, there was still a means of getting SCD for effectively $7.99 per week. Demand was definitely satiated by late fall 2022.
I can’t imagine the supply of this promo will not meet the supply of SCD, aka rerelease. But as @koala said that is pure speculation.
This leaves out the part where people found an exploit that lets them buy effectively unlimited copies and consolidated a ton of supply in the hands of a small number of people that quickly drove down the price.
I believe the reason the code cost $8 is related to this exploit. It’s easier to make $8 doing nothing than trying to buy up a supply of the card to sell and all the illiquid Pokemon center merchandise with it. It’s not a realistic representation of the price.
I’m not sure that I would compare this event/promo to Special Delivery Charizard. This event/promo is getting far more attention from wider audience. Pokemon-specific groups and gamer publishings are not the only ones talking about it.
Forbes, BBC, and the Smithsonian Magazine wrote on the topic.
This level of notoriety will certainly increase demand but also supply. The promo is supposedly a print-to-demand product through the museum and (possibly?) through TPCi’s online presence - though we need to wait and see on that latter part.
Regardless of why the code was cheap, the point is that most people would not bother buying the card on the secondary market. Why would I buy one on eBay when I could readily at any time buy a $5 code and get the card with a piece of Pokemon merch? The cost of the card was effectively $5 + the price of qualifying merch for a really really long time. It was available whenever you wanted one.
We shall see what happens. Dyl is making my argument for me re: Demand. Anything about the supply is an assumption at this point and will definitely tip the scales in the end. This will be a more popular card than SDC. Not to mention the additional interest from China and Japan that was not a significant factor for past Pokemon Center releases.
