I think you guys are being a little too pessimistic. Im sure there are people who just follow their favourite youtubers but I think theres some overgeneralizations being made here. Aside from the context of modern hype-stonk-investing, these are still very popular Pokemon card sets. I dont think theres any valid reason to assume these sets wont be loved and enjoyed by collectors over time. I dont have a dog in the fight with modern English set speculation, but I would very confidently expect that ES will increase in value over time. Do I think the boxes are gonna moon shot to $3000 in the next 5 years? Probably not. But i wouldnt be surprised if ES boxes were closer to $1000 in 5 years.
P.S. âthese setsâ referring to the commonly noted popular, highly printed SwSh sets
I would honestly be highly surprised if evolving skies gets to 1000 in 5 years.
For the last 4/5 sets prices are down 30% for every box bought at release. You need an almost 50% gain to just break even.
Etb are down close to 50% for many sets.
We are in different times now, the stonking is over.
Im ready to be wrong on all this so i can make 50usd on my 2 modern boxesđ
âWe are in different times now, the stonking is over.â
Iâve only been on E4 since 2016, and even Iâve seen your exact sentiment of âpokemon is never going to be as popular as it was during Xâ come and go on this forum twice when popularity was down. (and popularity is potentially only down because of economic factors, not desirability)
Just as housing prices could sky rocket when interest rates drop, I imagine once inflation cools off, people are going to flock right back to pokemon and want their old collections that they âhadâ to sell.
And if thatâs not the case, pretty much anything that happens in real life is a black swan event for people to go back to Pokemon.
I just think the pandemic and many coincidences came together last years creating a storm that probably wont be seen for a very long time, but as i said im ready to be wrong and think there are many fantastic looking modern cards, its just the value that doesnt make sense to me.
The reason it took 12 years for base set to matter is because thatâs how long it takes a 7 year old to reach the age where they have disposable income.
You donât need to wait 12 years for modern product today because a hugely significant part of the market now are people who are 25+ already. This was not a thing in 1999
1,000 is NOT the actual number of chase cards stolen, just an example to illustrate my point. Actual total number of stolen cards would definitely be higher than that. Note only 1 thief was caught.
When numerator is reduced (chase cards stolen and replaced by Vs by thieves) and denominator remains the same (total packs), the pull rate will be greatly affected. Even if numerator reduces by just 10%.
Ignore those noises created by those âpessimistsâ. They donât like nor own ES sealed products and its chase cards (as admitted and revealed by them), theyâre just deliberately doing it.
This talk about the speed of the market had me curious because I feel like I make out the 1999 Pokemon boom to be a much longer lasting moment than it actually was. It was such an iconic and memorable time, I forget that it actually went by in the blink of an eye.
The time between now and English moonbreonâs release is about 814 days. For comparison, 814 days after Base Set came out was right in between the releases of English Neo Genesis and Discovery. By now the Pokemon boom is already winding down. In a year the YGO TCG will release, and Pokemon will fully become uncool.
Things obviously move way faster now with the speed of information and culture exchange through the internet, but things moved pretty quickly back then too.
Edit: This is unrelated to the topic, but I just realized if you do the same comparison but use the vintage boom of 2020 as the starting point instead, that adds a year, which means the time it took for vintage to go from its all time highs in 2020 to the current âcrashedâ state where so many people are saying itâs dead and stupid, is roughly the same amount of time for that same thing to happen back in 1999-2002. Funny that.
I feel like you post the same thing on repeat very regularly. Why do you care so much about a part of the market you disdain?
Stop using r/pokeinvesting. Stop listening to stonktubers.
E4 is not either place and that sentiment you surround yourself with does not exist here. And no, one poster does not count.
As I said, this discussion is circular, repetitive and absolutely nothing new is brought up every time it happens. Just the usual suspects declaring their feelings as definitive. What is the point?
lol one of his latest posts is very telling : âIf i had mountains of cases evolving skies sitting in my basements, i would do everything i could to try to make everyone believe it is the best investment in the worldđ â
The opposite could equally be stated, that if you had no ES as you simply watched it climb and climb and climb while your risk aversion prevents you from ever dipping your feet in the water, you would do everything you could to justify why you were so smart for never taking part in the free tendies party.
Evolving Skies has seen stability for many months now at $400-$450 per booster box. There are some signs that things could break out toward $500+ in 2024.
My question is: Why? Maybe this was influenced by holiday money? Maybe itâs noise in the data? Only time will tell.
I think as we get further and further from sword and shield, the supply is just naturally decaying or going into collectors/investors stashes and off the market. Seems no more booster box reprints and the best set of Swsh era has made it a popular move. FOLO as well of it being the Swsh version of Team Up long term (from some Poketubers I watch occasionally).
I got to give this set credit that it is holding in price. Iâm curious to see how this set might continue to appreciate in spite of the fact that I cannot make sense of it. The set is driven by its alt arts, but the pull rates are so low that I canât imagine anyone paying $400 to open it to probably get a $10 Full Art V majority of the time. But booster boxes going up in price has historically been the norm, so it just feels weird to bet against them appreciating.
Rotation (coming April 2024) 
