Ok, thanks for your speculations.
Does it matter what exact rate it is? This whole thread is speculation on future prices and the behavior of those who partake. My point was itâs easier to invest when your buy in is less than the lowest the box has ever been. You essentially remove all risk at that point and using someone who invests like that is a terrible example for the rest of the market. Just like itâs a bad example to use the unseen forces gold stars in your gold star analysis. You seem to like picking extreme outliers in your âanalysisâ so Iâm not sure if youâre just trolling or if this is how you pick investment strategies. If itâs 60% 70% 80% itâs the same difference, itâs essentially impossible to lose. Most investors donât have that safety net so they need to liquidate earlier and thus do not have pallets full obviously
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Regardless of whatever âstolen cardsâ and difficult pull rates that were mentioned, we can roughly get an idea on the scale evolving skies were printed through the pop report from its chase card, compared to earlier precovid sets.
And donât you think saying there are millions of moonbreon fans worldwide is a stretch? Very speculative statement here.
Who knows. Once the new âbigâ chase card comes out, demand for moonbreon may not stay the same. And this is an issue most high pop modern chase cards face. Once the new âbig thingâ is in the spotlight, the high pop will usually affect the older modern chase cards negatively.
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All it took for Team Up and Cosmic Eclipse Boxes to double in price in this era was a couple of people looking back at it and basically saying âmaybe this era was better than we than thought it was when it was releasedâ.
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I think some people have already mentioned it, but the value of collectible toys these days is a bit arbitrary. It seems that whatever a plurality of social media influencers hype up becomes valuable. Do they react to what the masses are saying or do they hype up whatever they want for whatever honest or dishonest reasons they may have?
Comparing to things that happened 20 years ago may be somewhat helpful, but you have to account for how the world has changed since 1999.
I still donât like TU and CE despite years later. Maybe itâs just me??? 
none of Sun Moon was extremely hyped or liked to the levels of SWSH prior to Alt Arts and itâs why the price increases are so substantial when people realize they skipped over some of the ânicerâ cards of the era.
Until people truly understand that even after 1 year of release something is still popular, then it is not hype.
Some things can be just truly popular and well-sought after. Such is REAL demand, but not everyone understoodâŚ
Sure but sometimes the most unpopular stuff at the time it was released pull the rug under people compared to all hype in the current time.
To be fair, I think @thurco was just trying to say that Rudy isnât average by any means. Iâm not sure if you can find another person on social media with bags as heavy as his. He really is the 1%.
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I guess Iâm not seeing how youâve come to this conclusion. We donât know one way or another how many were taken, so whatâs the point in assuming highly pessimistic estimates like this?
We can just as easily say that factory thefts (if they happened to an appreciable amount, which is a big assumption) had no impact on the overall market due to the sheer quantity that we know exists on the market. Estimated pull rates are known and we should only use information we can confirm.
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No way amount of singles are severely limited. The pop report does not agree with that.
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Pop report is irrepresentative.
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Do some people here expect set cards pop to be like 39 copies for PSA 10? That would be trophy cardsâ pop. 
Itâs set cards, it would be normal to have several thousands of pop as booster boxes are printed in pallets after pallets. Then they call it ânot rareâ or âartificial scarcityâ, then I say go for trophy cards like Illustrator Pikachu. 
A repeating cycleâŚ
Itâs like those endless cycles in the movies; you wake up on your bed, accomplish some tasks to change fate, then end in a certain outcome, and you wake up again on your bedâŚ
You must only collect modern.
From WOTC to XY there are lots of set card holos and chase cards that have much lower than 39 PSA 10 copies.
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I do collect ex cards for vintage.
I have some PSA 10 like Mew ex which was population of 39 copies 2 years ago. But these are still set cards, subjected to change. Now itâs 48?
So I prefer to use example which has fixed pop, like trophy cards.
Are you expecting modern pop to be like vintage pop? Not possibleâŚ
Donât engage with him on this. He raises this point in every thread, is disproved, and yet still brings it up everywhere.
You will get more constructive dialogue out of a brick wall.
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Not everyone knows about the factory thefts, why canât I mention it in case people do not know?
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Not disproved, because neither Pokemon nor anyone has proven nor show evidence that the pull rates are not affected. They just say it.
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More like dismissed.
By the continual rants of people on FB, IG, Reddit, whatsapp groups, etc, which I came across, that this ES set is notoriously difficult to pull the top 2 chase cards more than other SWSH sets.
One youtuber even opened over 3,000 ES packs to pull the top chase card.
You ask if people expect set card PSA 10 pops to be 39. The answer is yes to many popular set cards. Then you say you canât compare them because they are older. You move the goalposts to fit your narrative.
Chase set cards reaching thousands of PSA 10s is a very new thing that started around evolutions and became more standard around hidden fates. Itâs not some crazy idea for people that have been collecting a while to not understand the insane pop reports of ultra modern chase cards.