I agree. I am not worried about Pokemon. There will be an occasional liquidation of a collection due to awful economic circumstances, but most who are “investing” or collecting seriously are typically in an OK financial circumstance to begin with. We spend our hard-earned money on shiny cardboard for a purpose, and that purpose is what will keep the hobby thriving.
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I’m not worried about the Pokémon market, but I’d be surprised to see all-time highs across the board any time soon. Even the big stuff is down significantly right now - the recession has taken its toll on the market and likely will continue to until things stabilize.
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my guess is that within a 1-1,5 years, the economy will be in a recession and asset prices will start falling and then slowly bottoming (correction in almost all market have started to adjusting or adjustment will accelerate or are about to start… )
The US is already in a recession and global stock markets are down 5 to 30% year over year depending on the country and index. Yes it could continue but there’s already been a significant correction.
That being said, you probably shouldn’t correlate the global macroeconomic environment to specific market segments, especially collectables. Like art, it’s possible for them to have an inverse relationship rather than a direct relationship. Wealth is transferred just as much as it is destroyed during recessions.
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agree
I totally agree, not all cards are impacted the same way by all the economic factors people are going on about lately, and we’ve already seen huge drops. The fact that so many people have this negative/bearish mentality is just a sign of an opportunity to continue buying to me, which is what I’ve been doing every month when I can.
I’ve seen this crap so many times now where everyone gets scared and thinking people are just going to fire sale stuff. Not saying it can’t happen, but it’s never quite like people envision. You can’t as easily liquidate collectibles like stocks or crypto, it’s a totally different market in that sense and takes time for things to play out. I’m still seeing certain cards selling for huge prices, even in this overly negative environment, and in some cases making new highs.
For example, PSA 10 Neo Rev 1st Ed Suicune. One just blew out the August sale last night even with the worsening macro-economic/risks:
So this idea that things are going to zero or whatever some people have been trying to say is just BS depending on where you look. Now at the same time, I know this is just one example and many cards have fallen in price since 2020/2021 and that’s just fine to me. So have many stocks, crypto, real estate and multitude of other investments. It’s totally normal to have price corrections after big moves.
Even people in stocks are making me laugh lately with all the negativity. Look at 5 or 10 year charts. Something like Microsoft is still up 200% if you bought in 5 years ago, but down 30% YTD. Unless you literally bought Jan 1 2022, investors have done very well after 5 years. People just have this short-term mentality where they think they can just get rich, but the reality is it simply does not work that way 99.9% of the time.
So anyway, I’m continuing to buy down on the investments I own. The sun will shine again, and I’m taking advantage of the drops wherever I can. Investing is a marathon and not a race, and people fishing for an exact bottom I think will miss the opportunity once things start to turn again. There simply is no get rich quick in any market, so you have to take advantage when things are down.
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Take a bite out of that tasty dip.
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I think we will see more “modern investors” liquidating in the coming year.
It pains me a lot to sell my entire collection, but I need the money to fund my college education.
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people like this are the reason CGC will not overtake PSA. lets forget 100% of the facts and opinions on their grading - the customer base is simply not the same
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I love your bold takes @wisewailmer.
I like to rile people up from time to time. But generally I believe it
edit: I should note I own a total of 2 psa cards totaling less than 200$ total so I’m by no means a fanboi
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Ads with these huge stories always seem off to me. It looks to me like he’s trying to clear out a closet of stuff he just couldn’t sell. Even without looking close a ton of those are just common and easy to acquire cards.
Maybe it’s all legit, but that whole collection just does not look very optimized to me. He also is really trying to make it sound more special than it is, using words and phrases like ‘insane’ over and over and ‘worth thousands!’.
Edit:
So why has no one bought his collection yet? lol
I believe that this person was selling mystery boxes, and those were some of the items for those mystery boxes.
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Yup, sounds like the typical post 2020 Pokemon ‘entrepreneur’. It might have worked 2 years ago, but times have definitely changed.
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Just echoing @wisewailmer that listing is an instant turnoff. No offense to the seller, but it just reeks of 2020.
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The listing is meme worthy for sure.
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I don’t think it’s being negative when you know time will be tough ahead. I called that risk management and a pinch of realism. Buying now is risky without any doubt. Keeping cash to buy later (6 months - 1.5 y) is less risky for the reasons cited previously (another reason, on the card market front, is the fact that PSA has reopened the flood gate so one will see much more cards on the market than we have have seen so far with a race to the bottom… only that will have a negative effect on the market. ).
To clarify, the economy may have started technically being in a recession, but the its impact is felt way after. Like a shockwave, the impact of the fed increasing interests and a deterioration of the macro economy takes time to propage the real economy.
An analogy: like a bullet Train in full speed with its engine shut off giving the impression that it operate normally albeit at a lower pace… will take time to stop until all past accumulated energy vanish (inertia)… then it takes time to bring it up and to recover (as long as the engine is not broken)… that recovery point is the best time to use that cash.
As of thinking that collectible will be shielded, I very much doubt, i see the opposite but I do hope it is short lived and stabilized quickly. As one said, there is a strong base of collectors that will not necessarily liquidate their collection, but for sure an entire segment of “speculators” will go, reducing liquidity and affecting temporarily the market (that’s what i wish for and that’s positive). And all of that will be fed by negative emotions and will further spiral the downside price pressure.
We sprint marathons, but I get your point 
Jokes aside, I 100% agree with you, and thanks for the detailed breakdown. I’m horrible at articulating my thoughts.
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Do you mean
This “clown” “has” a sick car in his IG profile
?
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correct!
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The problem is actually pinpointing the best time to buy and then actually buying. It’s said time and time again and while technically it’s the best time to buy, timing the market is incredibly unlikely and no one should rely on doing so. That would make the second best time to buy, now. People who buy over time regardless of market conditions (barring extremes) come out on top.
I do agree with your notes about federal policy and their implications for the future. The current economy has and will continue to affect the collectibles market but I highly doubt any doomsday event will happen, mostly because the time for one to occur has already passed.
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