jawsh98
61
I have bought randomly since 2017 and have been buying at least one thing a week since early 2020. I did not go to school for finance, but based on experience, those who think they’re going to time the market usually get surprised. Not trying to spin you, I just like to share my thoughts.
My assumption on PSA is that most people will chill as it’s not “cool” right now to collect cards. People who were grading like crazy are out of the market or have already graded their expensive cards. Those who are out will wait until the next bull market, as they did in 2018 until 2020. Would love to see a huge influx of WOTC or vintage cards come to the market, but would bet the house that they won’t.
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jabby
62
All markets are a little complex though, and not everything is trending in a single direction. There are still many cards in the Pokemon space and other hobbies that are seeing strong sales and continued organic demand in this environment and everyone buying today has access to the same news, headlines and info that me and you have, and most of us factor these risks in to our purchases. In addition, believe it or not, but you can find many stocks out there that have actually gone up a lot this year as well:
Exxon, anyone?
Anyone who wants to panic and sell, they can. It doesn’t mean everyone will though. A lot of people don’t even plan to re-sell any cards they buy at all. You mention risk management, but what you need to remember is that many money managers measure downside risk at various market levels. If an investment is down 30, 40, 50% or more compared to it’s highs, that is a great discount in any market and many people would be happy to add to or start their position and continually slowly buy down if possible. Over a 5 or 10 year cycle, those bigger discounts are statistically rare. A lot of market greed happens near highs and lows, and that’s why you need to be patient and slowly buy or sell down after the big moves that happen in either direction.
The other thing you need to consider is time. Let’s say you buy a card today and by this time next year that card is down 15-20%. But what about if in 5 years from now your initial investment is up 50 or 100%? You really need a longer term window. The stocks, cryptos and cards I’m buying today I’m thinking about 5 years from now. I’m totally expecting they could drop another 10 or 20% even, but I’m comfortable with the current discounts and the potential risk. That’s why I generally make modest monthly purchases and use my cash and leverage as responsibly as possible. If we all knew where the bottom is, we’d all maximize our returns, but it simply is not possible no matter what anyone thinks or says.
3 Likes
jawsh98
63
Great description, Amigo.
This is the first bear market that I will have experienced full-time. When I originally started, I didn’t even guess the costs would go up, so I made money on accident come 2020. What do you see is the same from 2017-2020, and what do you see that is different?
One thing I’ve noticed in Europe is many more stores started selling singles in the last year. Even those who used to exclusively sell sealed. Of course their prices are horrendous compared to buying on your own, but buying from a legal entity which is in your country does give you more legal/consumer protection against fakes.
I guess this makes sense as it’s easier for a store to get good margins compared to sealed where consumers can compare prices more easily. After all if you can’t register on cardmarket it’s unlikely you’ll know if the single price is good or not. This may be the way more stores survive this mess.
Did anyone else notice this trend? Especially those in smaller/more isolated markets?
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I predicted pokemon would have a down turn during the pandemic and we got the biggest peak of all time. Now obviously stimulus money contributed heavily but thats only 1 factor. I definitely wouldn’t count on economic downturns to contribute to lower pokemon prices like you said.
This is definitely giving me ‘Lil timmy’ vibes from this video by rudy
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Dyl
67
Yep. Not every dollar is equal when it comes to collectibles. $1,000 PSA 10 graded card is very different from 1,000 $1 cards.
5 Likes
I was making the point that economic downturns don’t necessarily mean collectibles will go down in price…
Exactly, and I was agreeing: “I definitely wouldn’t count on economic downturns to contribute to lower pokemon prices like you said.”
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E-Unit
72
I notice more people dumping sealed, ultra modern collections on FB.
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Really? I cant seem to find many boxes under the 90-100ish dollar point anymore besides battle styles. Which stinks cause i was hoping to get a couple
I just had a buyer tell me they are selling everything modern to buy vintage cards. Of course its just one person and completely anecdotal, but for people speculating with modern, there has to be a fear of saturation. 20% of all pokemon cards printed in the past 2 years is just insane! Pokemon cards being printed is the reason for the global supply chain issues! 
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Modern is crazy overprinted
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I can certainly understand that sentiment. Speculating in Modern can feel more like day trading stocks. A person needs to be on alert for reprint news and try to change their positions accordingly.
It’s fun when it works out, but feels like more work and more risk compared to just buying vintage.
I definitely have serious doubts about Evolving Skies prices holding. It’s a game of timing the next reprint. I’ll probably sell most of my Evo Skies boxes soon and throw the money at VSTAR Universe instead. I feel more comfortable with Japanese Modern as a long term hold, since they seem to avoid the excessive overprinting.
That figure is thrown around a lot but considering pull rates and how many sets SWSH has, alt arts are still pretty rare considering all of that right? Like, not getting an alt art from an entire case of boxes is a thing.
Will
78
Relatively rare maybe, Rayquaza Vmax alternate art has 1718 copies in a PSA 10, whereas Espeon holo from Aquapolis has 391 PSA graded copies total. Rayquaza has been out about a year, and that Espeon card nearly 20.
The demand for alt arts is huge, but will it sustain is the big question.
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The low pull rates in SWSH will create this environment:
- Singles will do well, people will just buy the card they want
- Sealed product will suffer. Very few will be paying top dollar for a sealed booster box and most likely won’t get a decent card
2 Likes
Gus
80
Earlier this year, eBay was forced to start collecting sales tax on sales within Canada, which is the main reason I haven’t been buying as much. There is something in me that can’t bring myself to pay more taxes on a beat-up binder card that has probably been bought and sold or traded 10x.
Also, if I purchase from US sellers, the conversion and import taxes are too much.
I haven’t sold any. stocks since the downturn, but my stock portfolio is down <5% and my actual returns on my card sales have been +40% which was a huge surprise to me considering the negativity.
I know there are lots of opportunities right now, and this may sound greedy or bad, but I was really hoping there would be more blood in the water for the things I’m trying to buy lol
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