Just a question I had. I know there is no going back to pre Covid prices but do you think cards are too expensive and inflated?
Obviously a lot is going on with the Japanese market right now but if you look at a PSA 10 1st Ed charizard. Do you think the plus 150k price is warranted? Same with booster boxes etc.
Thoughts, comments?
It’s a really broad question to try to answer. I think the biggest question to ask in response is “prices are high relative to what?”.
Many cards have returned to close to historical levels. While some aspects of the market remain higher than usual, there are also tons of areas in which prices are lower than they have been in years. Vintage (in general) is much more available in both price and quantity than it was in 2020-2021. You can pick up beautiful modern art for less than $3 for many many cards.
In a more direct response, yes $150k for a 1st Ed Base Charizard PSA 10 is probably a good price. For many, that card is considered to be a holy grail. It’s relatively low pop and can never be truly replicated. Booster box prices seem a bit high in my opinion, but I only buy singles so I don’t really care what box prices are at.
Awesome answer! You’re right it is considered by many to be the grail
box prices seem high until you try to buy one. You have to deal with every other whatnot ripper and investor and collector all willing to fight for them because they are so scarce. Finding a real box for a decent price before all the wolves get to them is literally a nightmare
Basic principles of supply and demand would say no.
My wallet would say yes
That’s a good point. Dealing with all of that is one of the reasons why I don’t bother with trying to acquire boxes. Would rather skip rolling the dice and just buy singles to get what I want
I can’t even imagine how stressful it must be to buy a vintage box. I’d be so worried about a reseal
I generally agree with your assessment that the question is very broad.
But what do you mean by that?
I looked at a lot of card prices and their history. I can’t think of a single card that isn’t at least 50-100% above its 2019 value. And without the boom would not have risen to those price levels, if you look at the historical data.
So, could you elaborate what you mean with that statement?
On one hand, they’re pieces of cardboard made for tiny fractions of what we pay for them.
On the other, the vast majority of cards are extremely affordable (cheaper than $10).
But more importantly, how many non-diminishing sources of happiness do we really have in our lives? Pretty much everything we consume wears down over time: computers, phones, food, clothes, TVs, equipment for other hobbies… but cards can last several lifetimes and, in some cases, become even more appealing over time.
I would say modern is currently overpriced when compared to vintage, or maybe vintage is underpriced compared to modern. The value of some vintage vs some modern cards don’t make sense to me, but the demand for modern just seems much higher at the moment. That can change at any time though, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rise in vintage and/or drop in modern in the near future
I think it depends on which specific part of the market. Vintage was way inflated in late 2020/early 2021 for a whole slew of reasons. Many vintage cards have collapsed since then and have returned to much more normal prices. Honestly vintage has been more or less “dead” for the past year or so and I see almost no one talking about it like in 2020/2021. It’s very quiet and boring, especially compared to Modern or the hype that has been happening more with Japanese cards the past few months. At the same time, the quietness and stability in vintage I think makes it a much better time to collect it than say 2 years ago.
Box prices I can’t really give a good opinion on as I don’t follow it as close. What I can say as someone who bought a case of Evolving Skies for $500ish, I do not believe it should be selling for $2000+ this quickly, but that’s just my opinion. Obviously the market has been willing to pay that much already. Vintage boxes are another story. They don’t necessarily go up for sale as often and I feel it’s harder to determine their value at times. I know recently PWCC ran a Skyridge box through and I think the price seemed fair/realistic to me overall given the scarcity of that box and how infrequently they go up for sale.
Anyway, on a final note I do believe some cards can appear overpriced at times. Like for me there’s many PSA 10s in this hobby that I feel are way overpriced compared to the same card in NM condition. But, their seems to always be a buyer willing to line up and buy it because they clearly love it enough to justify the huge premium. So it’s really going to come down to each individuals perspective and how they perceive the value in owning the cards in their collection.
considering the cost of a pack and pull rates, its a miracle so many cards are as cheap as they are.
a 1:30+ box chance to pull card costing only the price of a few boxes (on the high end) is crazy cheap.
It’s overpriced because you’re seeing things short-term. Back in the 2000s, base Charizard was only $100+ and I thought it’s overpriced as a kid. But now I would gladly buy 10 copies at $100. If you think long-term, almost all cards are currently undervalued! Think and see long-term.
It’s not a good habit of mine but I always compare chase cards to pack odds and when I sell things like gold star latios in the 8ish range for literally the price of 1 heavy pack you start to see the real value of sealed. Deoxys has crap print quality too so spending money to pull one doesn’t even guarantee a great grade
The only right answer: depends.
Some of them, some of them arent.
Modern is. Especially graded 10s. Those people are burning their money. For the same price you could get a piece of history (vintage - which feels undervalued at the moment).
modern is also a piece of history.
While I won’t speak to any specific card, overall I would say yes. Especially modern. I mainly feel this way based on what I’ve seen with the sports card market. Both modern and vintage sports cards. Even MJ rookies have dropped drastically. Modern players, so much more. Pokémon wasn’t stonked as hard as sports cards, but I do think there is still hype-flation playing out, that will take several years to level out.
Ultra-Modern is living a FOMO era, specially in Japanese now.
Vintage is quite quiet…
Markets move in cicles. Vintage could drop a it more, on doubt about that. But it’s the part of the hobby in which organic collectibility exists, and where value should be maintained the most.
Modern, with mass produced scarcity, is a place were the hype with the “new shiny thing” will be replaced for the “newest shiny thing”. Being so much supply of this, will make prices suffer major swings and drops.
For me Vintage is the way to go if someone wants to build a collection that holds value over time.