Pokemon is defying the stock and collectibles market.

I was auditing my collection this weekend as it had been some months and I wanted to chart what I paid and more importantly what the current sold listings/market is for my cards. I have been adding to my collection at a nice clip this year as the bulk of my cards purchased were in in 2017. Back then I went after one of each Charizard PSA holo in either 8 or 9 grades up until legendary treasures, and then added specific pokemon (gengar, mewtwo, alakazam, dragonite, tyranitar). Having a general understanding of the fact that they increased significantly over the following year and a half, I was pleasantly, or curiously surprised by the further increase of their price in the last few months when I was updating my chart. Specifically in the last two months.

With the stock market having recovered a little over twenty percent from its March 23rd lows (dow jones anyhow but still down 6000 from its highs) I was expecting a pullback in the card market and to get some deals on cards. Now I must stress the following: 1. I do not hope I ever have to sell the cards I buy and 2. I always buy the particular card I seek slabbed in a beautiful PSA case, which is on an ultra pro card stand (V one). Having said that, I don’t really want the price of my cards to go down. This may seem trivial but I sincerely doubt that anyone on this site thinks, “awesome, my collection is now worth half of what I paid!” HOWEVER, I would gladly buy more cards for my collection at lower prices if they tanked, playing the long game with the contradicting, but I bet common collector mindset, that I will keep these cards and not sell, but one day s*it might hit the fan and I may have to sell. Also, collecting is much like a game; we are competitive, and we go after that card. Some want it now and a specific grade will pay a premium, or in general pay more, while others will pay current market value or wait if no deal can be made via buy it now or wait for an auction and get the “real” value. Maybe they used e4! We feel good if not great if we get a perceived deal on a card, while we may face buyer’s remorse if we perceive to overpay after the fact. We walk a fine line, outside of a few collectors. But as of April 20, 2020, Pokemon cards have not been negatively affected by the corona crash.

Any card purchases that I have made in the last 3 months have been in congruence with that card’s particular uptrend in price. I may have been able to snipe a few auctions but even then, shipping and tax makes it at current buy it now or sold listing. I know taxes are a new thing online, but for me it’s 6.25 percent which is not the worst. But from gold stars, to shining, to base set, to post 2006 set cards, there have been significant jumps in prices. This is most apparent with the more popular species (All the Eevee forms, Charizard, etc…you know the ones)

I am literally one man making pokemon card purchases and following prices everyday to remain knowledgeable to what I can do to add to my collection at a reasonable rate. I am aware some mid-level and larger sellers are cordial with each other and can make deals or may know someone or have access to personal collections that they can purchase much lower price, but provide liquid cash at that moment, which brings a discount. All collectors have options to buy other than ebay, but mainly that one is it. That’s fine, it just means I have to work harder to find the cards I want at a price I am comfortable with. So far, I have been successful in that purpose and accept that prices are up, but I am surprised considering our current times.

I just find it less likely that there is going to be a MTG card or stock market tank of 20-40 percent in the next few months as those markets have experienced. Maybe its goes down, but how much? Five percent? Why? Did so many people that are now struggling have so much dispensable income based in pokemon cards that they now have to liquidate? I know that the next half a year in terms of the economy will likely be very bad, oil is negative on the commodity market, unemployment is in the millions and wages will likely suffer in following years. However, if prices were going to go low, wouldn’t it have happened by now? I have many nieces and nephews and work with kids, and there has been no downtrend in their current appetite for modern pokemon cards, games, movies…whatever, even in this corona crash. Its remarkable to see the price of sealed WOTC and even Non-WOTC 2004-2010 sets, and this is the same for both raw and graded cards of those sets. I don’t follow post 2012ish era, so I cant speak for that but we all know that sales are doing well in the least since 2016, after all it got myself and millions of others from my generation back into pokemon in some form.

Pokemon has overcome what other sports and non-cards markets have already faced and the stock market in general.I do not think this is bad, or good. It is independent of what I want and I am amazed at the resilience of a discretionary-fund based hobby. You don’t need these cards, you want them. At least I know I do :blush:

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totally.

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I think newer, cheaper cards will be affected at some point as those are the easiest price point. People buying cards at that price point are sadly most likely to be impacted. People with more expensive cards presumably don’t need to sell. And even if some do, the others probably have enough liquidity to take advantage of the “deal” and support the market. If we head into a new great depression on the other hand, all bets are off. FWIW, my buying and my own outlook for vintage cards has not been impacted by what is happening. I have seen this with vintage comic books in 2001 and 2008. The prices for the vintage items, if they are impacted in the short run, will still rise in the long run. It’s just age/income demographics and aging in of the next generation of the fan base into the work force and into income. Coupled with a fixed supply of product. We’ve got a good 20+ years if that dynamic, at least. Now that the hobby is firmly established across multiple generations of people, the hooks are in. Of course, these are just my opinions. Can’t argue that going heavy on Pokemon right now is a better or safer investment than buying into the Dow when it was at its recent bottom of 18,500. So I “invest” in these cards at my own risk.

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If the recession continues for a long period of time, I wouldn’t be surprised if cards started to decrease. On the other hand, the current pokemon market leans towards more increases.

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Pokémon market will get hit hard if this recession lasts a while. Currently everyone In the states is using their 1.5k stimulus on online shopping and Pokémon cards. Once the stimulus dries up we should see some falls. My opinion only.

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lol

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The trend is your friend. Go along with the ride while keeping your finger on the pulse and have a great time.

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My sentiments as well. We’ll see what the future holds :confused:

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I’m enjoying watching this massive spike in prices tho! Fun to watch if you have built positions in the hobby from before 2020 like most of us here!

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Must be nice :sob: im here scrambling and trying to build my collection before prices soar too high out of reach.

But i am glad to see the hobby thrive though. Make all this work worth it when i do snag that card i want :grin:

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It’s crazy how fast cards have moved. I remember cards sitting at the 30-35 range for years jumping to 100-150 now. I’m happy to have bought a good amount, but it must be frustrating just getting into collecting now.

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Couple of things. One, I think you are grossly overestimating how many people are actually spending their stimulus check on Pokemon cards, and two, the prices started skyrocketing before the stimulus checks were even released.

I hope you’re right, because I would love to see prices dip so I can snatch some cards, but I’m just not sure that is going to happen. Plus, prices have increased so much that it’s not like they are going to suddenly drop back to where they were before all of this occurred. Some of these cards have doubled, tripled and even quadrupled in value.

Anyway, I think PSA being closed and people working from home having more disposable income are the primary reasons for the boom; not the stimulus check.

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I think we’ll be due for a correction sooner or later, but it’s not certain if that would even be during this economic downturn. You can argue that once people start running out of rent money, they will sell some of their collection, but at what rate and how many sperm whales are waiting to snatch up anything that pops up for even a little under market value? I’m continually shocked by the low availability of certain cards that had 10x as many copies available a year or two ago. Even if people dump some of their collection, it’s not unlikely that those cards, being injected into a scarce market, would be snatched up quickly by those with enough financial cushion to endure this economic contraction.

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Remember the USA is not the only country that exists in the world so even if the buying pool drops in the states there will be a UKian, European or Kangarooian to take their place, a lot of countries outside the US have a much more individually focused economic stimulus so it is easier for someone to bust out some juice for their fav collectable.

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I don’t think so. I don’t know one person who got their stimulus check yet, no one in my family for sure. So does that mean the spike is coming?

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This is great news. Sellers can now increase their international prices🤣

My wife earns just too much for me to claim unemployment benefits, and my company is taking full timers from less busy stores to cover shifts at the busier stores(the store I work at) because they are being paid anyway. So I am still technically employed but can’t get any hours.

The company I work for is also making too much money for them to claim the JobKeeper allowance that the Australian Government is offering to bigger companies to keep casual employees on the payroll. So no 1500/fortnight for me from that either.

Collecting is the last I can do right now, unfortunately. But it seems people generally still have a bunch of dispensable income for Pokemon. This hobby continues to show me how little I understand about economic market trends and predictability.

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I got my Stimulus check days ago, as well as my entire family.

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Same. Everyone I live and work with haven’t received anything yet. My one friend Megan did but I think she’s the only one so far