Got almost everything I wanted to say, except card backs and borders. Japanese card backs and borders > English counterparts.
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Damn you, enigma! 
If only I had this same power… 
I’m the total inverse… well, I guess the converse (?) of most people here:
I started with Japanese and didn’t discover english until a little while later. I love certain english sets because of the nostalgia I have for them, but JP WotC era is where I’ll always go for fun.
What’s important is that you find enjoyment in the thing, regardless of whether it makes you money. BUT always remember that it IS just a thing. =) I buy whatever I feel, and generally don’t worry about the ROI unless it’s a large purchase. There are plenty of little places in the hobby that can yield a great value right now, and perhaps a great ROI.
GO to preferences > profile (in the left menu) > scroll to enable signature > choose your pokemon.
Here’s a page on it: How to Get a Sprite Signature
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Fair points. But I think sometimes nostalgia as being the primary force behind collecting is a little over blown. I grew up like the average 90’s kids with WOTC yet I own no WOTC cards. My whole collection with the exception of a few is Japanese promos. None of these cards I grew up with or knew about when I was young. But their story, history and most of all uniquness I’m drawn too. I also see much more value and potential gain in these than WOTC over time. I own things like sealed Pokémon VHS, toys r us toys, cheaper things that may never increase for my nostalgia thirst. Maybe I’m an outlier though.
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People will first go to what theyre most comfortable with and then eventually expand. Look at base set prices in 2020. Most people, or at least most of the increase in demand was base set. Anyone that stayed past that likely expanded their collecting beyond base but but 2020 is striking evidence that nostalgia is a huge driving force in collecting and demand.
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Agree. Still wild that people think 1/10 to 1/20 of the price falls into people’s minds as justified. There is a bit of gambling with all of this, and I’m gambling that Japanese comes up closer to English over the next few years.
Please feel free to talk crap to me if I am wrong down the road 
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Thanks for sharing your experience. You are right, the nostalgia effect could very well be overblown.
Nostalgic motivation in this hobby will of course vary in strength from person to person. I think it also depends on the kind of engagement a person had in the hobby when they were young.
Personally, as a kid I was as much a player as I was a collector. I went to Pokemon League almost every weekend during a majority of the WOTC era — especially the Neo and E-series eras. I have a lot of nostalgia for playing the game during that time period. It is no surprise that those are some of my favorite sets.
I also was always interested in set collection, but as a kid I of course didn’t have the resources to fund that. The only set I completed as a kid was the WOTC Black Star promos.
After spending the better part of the last 20 years seeing the many many holes in my sets, I find myself with an urge to revisit them and complete them.
Pure speculation, but from my own story I wonder if former (and current) players in English-speaking countries may have a higher tendency to collect English in general, including the cards they wouldn’t have ever played with. Likewise for those that ever tried (and probably failed) to complete those English sets through limited openings and trades with friends.
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I have to agree on the nostalgia. The vast majority of cards i own and have bought in the last few years i never knew of as a kid. I grew up with ex, no real connection to WotC, but i have still grown to love it as an adult. I also love and believe in Japanese cards; 95% of my collection is Japanese. I do think it will grow in value, but i dont think vintage japanese set cards will ever outpace or even rly be on par with 1st wotc. If it does, i will be in a very good position lol.
I made my final return to the hobby (here for good this time lol) in 2020 and ive since grown very turned off of english. All the noise and bad experiences ive had with english just rly soured my feelings towards it. Im very happy with the quality of JP cards and purchasing them for a fraction of english prices feels great! In that sense, im quite content with the market as of now. Still think things are moving pretty fast; not rly buying the whole “tons of people are leaving!!” Id be happier if it actually slowed down a bit more lol. Im really hoping the transition out of end game SWSH into early game ScVi will calm things down that little bit more.
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Market seems very strong to me. Ultra modern is on the shelf but still sells quickly, vintage has leveled out and sales are still strong across the board considering the economic situation in the US, IMO.
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I think we haven’t yet seen the eye of the storm. Let me argument.
First from a financial market perspective, the fed started increasing interest rates this year and will probably continue. Monetary policies actions takes time (tighter credit, debt appetite/access falling, speculation disappearing) to propagate to the real economy… my guess is that within a 1-1,5 years, the economy will be in a recession and asset prices will start falling and then slowly bottoming (correction in almost all market have started to adjusting or adjustment will accelerate or are about to start… )
Second, 1 - with far less money to spend on “secondary” items (hobbies, speculative items etc…), price will adjust accordingly… All type of collectibles will be impacted (all vintage, modern, ultra modern, be it En, Jp, Kr, Fr , SP or DE). Not because people will liquidate (some will, if they are under heavy debt), but rather that the amount of buyers will sharply fall (demand side). I think time is gone for expectations that tomorrow prices will be higher than yesterday. At the same time, the supply will increase at two levels. On the one hand, lots of people are sitting on a lot of supply (vintage & modern ) that will most likely hit the market as price are falling, on the other hand, pokemon could also miscalculate the supply needs and inundate the market with too many products (through reprints or too many type of unnecessary products), putting downside pressure on prices and damaging the collectibility aspect of the hobby.
that’s my thought on the market.
Does that mean that I won’t anymore spend money on collectibles and put my money on an index fund? the answer is no. I enjoy collecting, its a lifetime passion. As long as I have a job, (a paid house) and a good health, it’s all good.
I think I will be able to collect more and hopefully stop seeing insane and absurd recent developments (two stupid examples: UPC charizard doubling and being scalped even before its release or seeing people selling hundreds of code cards for special delivery charizard while it was supposed to be a “free” access to one card… )
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Thing is, this is not new.
Anytime there’s a “more exclusive” product it has always sold over the official price, sure maybe not 2x but this will always happens as long as the hobby remains popular, to what degree, could be changing factor.
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Agreed with @fresco . Remember, historically, the most valuable cards were given for free. It may be that cards are being sold at high values now, but there is simply not a formula to make scalping profitable long term. Not at scale, anyway. (of course, a zero -sum game is never productive…)
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Scalping/Flipping is just a product with low supply & high demand being aggressively flipped. Also scalping has become a way of life. There are people who will do anything but get a job. While this is a meme, its accurate that there are people who will waste a ton of energy and time, to make less than what they could a few days at amazon:
I just wouldn’t hold my breath on a recession putting that much of a dent into people flipping product. Shining Legends illustrates the reality of scalping. In 2020, it was the new hot set, with not enough supply. It peaked with the “state of the hobby”. Then something happened, printers went brr, and the scalping ended. That has a better chance of fixing the issue imo than a global recession.
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I appreciate your candor and analysis but I just don’t think this will happen. This is too doomsday to believe it will come into fruition. I think collectibles continue to be in a better than ever position and with Disney’s Lorcana coming on the scene I only see that increasing. The economy, IMO, won’t be nearly as bad as the fears some have and definitely think affect it may have on collectibles is overblown.
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It is pretty awful in the U.S. Many retirees are seeing 20%-30% of their retirement savings washed down the drain and may have to go back onto the job market in their 60s. First time homebuyers are running up against awful mortgage rates and a continued housing shortage. I can’t speak for everyone’s personal situation, but I would argue that things are pretty bad right now. Not to mention the strain on those with dependents or those who rely on a lower income.
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Nice timing on that “Most valuable cards were given for free” since that was just in Scott’s video today, haha
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Plus tha energy crisis
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I appreciate the detailed input, although I disagree, but that’s why I posted this.
I doubt buyers will drop, as Scott noted that collectibles are emotional investments. IMO, the number of buyers/sellers will remain close to the same until the next move up. I believe the majority of people do not have the patience to go through the last 6 months of low sales and stay interested.
I am sure the market will go into a deeper recession, but people now have way more access to information. 90% of people buying cards are for the fun of it and getting a short, exciting experience with their kids. Maybe there is a touch less buying, but to the majority, $5 to make a child happy (or ourselves) is very minimal.
As for the insane flips, those won’t stop, as people have bots and businesses that purely run off of those systems.
I am sure we’re both excited to see it play out. I am with you and “hope” prices come down on bigger cards, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
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Yeah, sh!t is pretty gnarly for many. I like to think that more people are trying to learn about finances. IMO, that was the best part of Covid. People got off their asses and many learned how to make money away from their employers.
Low key, you know this “clown” has a sick car in his IG photos.
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Well if this is real bad then I’m not too worried Pokemon because people are buying and I’m not seeing any deep cause for concern. So if it can weather these awful circumstances you’re speaking of, I feel okay about it.
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