Would love to hear everyone’s POV on the market and hear people’s underpriced finds recently.
I’ve been grabbing PSA 10 Neo Japanese Holos like a madman for under $100, and this seems wild to me. Other base set holos in PSA 9 or PSA 8 are crazy cheap too. I “understand” why people sell due to fear and needing funds, but I can’t fathom how anyone can rationalize liquidating at that cost.
Not trying to throw shame, as these individuals are hooking me up
I think it’s a good time to be buying if you can. All markets have been very bearish/negative with a lot of doomsday talk almost all year (recession, depression, etc). A lot of people have lost interest in investments and collectibles and many have basically given up on it since it’s not all just easy money like it was in late 2020/early 2021.
With this said, I have been mostly impressed with how most cards have held up in price. Not everything has totally collapsed, and some cards have actually risen or remained strong even under negative sentiment. Even though I’m not a huge modern investor, there’s no denying that Evolving Skies has been one of the best investments out of any form of investment over the past 6-12 months if you bought any box or sealed case.
Regardless, I’ve been buying cards all through the summer, but also taking my time with it and not going too deep. Just slow and patient accumulation. It seems many people and stores are desperate to raise capital, and I’ve seen many more sales and promos than usual from game stores I buy from which has been nice. I’ve focused mainly on WOTC era NM condition cards and just building up my binder sets, and at times picking up the odd high grade slab that I could snag at auction for a good price.
Lately because of the strong USD rise, I have not been buying any higher priced cards. The exchange rate is brutal for non-US buyers, along with the huge duties and taxes at the border. Instead, I have sold off some extra cards in USD I had and once the currencies shift around again I am hoping to re-invest some more capital into more expensive cards. In the meantime because stocks and cryptos are down, I have been parking money there to cost average down where I can.
Because of the overall uncertainty, I would recommend buying slowly for now, but also accepting that the downside risk is now much lower than ever and to not be too scared to buy. At some point this market and every other market will turn hard to the upside and IMO it will catch many off guard because it’s been dragging on for a while now and the herd is falling asleep and not seeing the long-term opportunity at play.
You just need to be willing to take a few punches to the face from here and know you are getting most things at a huge discount from just a year or 2 ago and accept the risks.
I have a lot of thoughts and feelings about the market right now but the bit that I have found most striking recently is illustrated by these charts on https://tcgfish.com/
In this first chart, we see ASP for both ENG and JPN Graded Cards cards compared. As you can see, both Languages crested with the boom but ENG (as a whole) has returned to pre-covid levels while JPN has held a significant amount of the growth seen during the boom. As a result, JPN ASP has overtaken ENG - something I had never considered possible. It’s taken for granted the ENG is more valuable than the JPN but it appears that this has flipped when you account for ALL graded card sales.
Of course, a given high-grade ENG holo might still far outpace its JPN counterpart, but on average JPN is out ahead.
ENG ASP ~ $85
JPN ASP ~ $135
Why might this be? Well, there are a few reasons that come to mind immediately but more research would be needed to be sure. My hunch is that the supply of Japanese cards, especially modern cards, is much less elastic than it is for ENG and thus Price has remained stickier post boom as a result. This difference in supply elasticity likely comes down to the following factors (and others)
Furthermore, when you consider this Transaction Volume chart (also on TCGFish) you can see that JPN’s share of transactions over the last 3 months is consistent with its share over the last 3 years. This suggests that while demand for JPN is certainly growing along with ENG, it isn’t outpacing ENG. This, IMO, points back to Supply as the underlying driver of ASP for JPN.
I thought this was super interesting when I first saw it, and I think it says a LOT about the differences in which Modern cards are being handled on the JPN side vs the ENG side especially (since these sets were printed and graded much more than vintage and have a larger impact on these averages).
This sea change might have other ripple effects. Perhaps people who mostly only consider buying ENG will reconsider JPN as the delta between ASP dawns on them. Perhaps especially those interested in Modern.
Dude, that breakdown was rad. Thank you for sharing all of that! 
This is definitely happening, but I also think that when the market is the way it is right now, a lot of the people who were less seriously into the hobby get bored and just move on. It’s certainly less exciting (and stressful) than it was for the past couple of years. For me that’s a good thing because it’s a lot easier to just relax and enjoy cards, but I think that also can make some people bored and less interested in staying in the hobby.
There are several examples of collectors on e4 that finally started collecting Japanese cards in the last 2-3 years, after only collecting their native language previously. More people have realized that Japanese is superior, thus driving up demand.
Yeah, I have seen that too but am hesitant to say that’s what caused the switch. Demand undoubtedly increased but demand for English also increased. The second chart I shared isn’t a peerrrfect measure of demand but it does measure how many times people completed checkout for each language and the ratio of ENG:JPN over the last 3 months is basically the same as the past 3 years as a whole which suggests that there isn’t a relative trend upward for JPN transactions. I’ve def seen some people switch over completely but that’s more anecdotal IMO. My hunch is still that JPN does a better job of controlling supply, both for standard Modern AND special promo releases - and that difference in the characteristics of supply are what is driving ASP for JPN.
Great analysis.
Another thing to consider: PSA has graded millions of Pokemon cards over the last few years, and a disproportionate number of them seem to be of the lower value English variety. It seems that the types of people that submitted modern bulk in mass quantities tended to do so more with English rather than Japanese cards.
I don’t have data to back this up but it seems quite likely based on the absurd growth in English pop reports for many lower value cards.
Surely this has affected the average slab sale prices for the two languages in different ways, with the English average pulled down more by the influx of newly graded bulk.
Despite having a lot of newcomers these past 1-2 years, lots already left/are leaving. But there’s a % of those that would remain interested in the collecting aspect.
Even if that % is small, lets say 10% (being super pesimistic) plus the semi-old collectors catching up/adquiring more knowledge, it’s only natural that the hobby matures.
Part of that maturity, is knowing which cards were severely undervalued, underprinted and actually rare or scarce. A lot of japanese vintage cards, promos do tickle all those boxes and if not they at least hold better fundamentals than their english counterparts. Even modern japanese can’t compete with the humongous amount that is printed in english.
I don’t like giving personal anecdotes but myself and a couple of buddies have been heavily buying japanese stuff for a year now despite having years of buying just english.
There seems to be a common assumption that people gravitate towards collecting Japanese over time. It is treated almost like an inevitability by some people in the hobby, that English is a stop gap on the way to Japanese.
It is a reasonable enough narrative that might be demonstrated by many in this community, but I think if we are talking about the entire market as a whole then the reality is much more complicated.
First, I think we can all agree that greater depth and engagement in the hobby is required for one to even learn about Japanese cards, especially the many exclusives, since most of us did not grow up with them. That knowledge is a barrier that countless many collectors may never cross. A community such as this is its own bubble filled with people who actually took that deep dive. It is not necessarily the obvious end journey.
Second, just because one gains the knowledge and appreciation for Japanese cards does not inherently mean they will shift their collection priorities in that direction over time.
It is commonly said that people coming back to the hobby might start with ultramodern, then revisit their childhood (probably English sets), and then take one of the deeper dives, possibly into the niches of the hobby.
What I think some people might not fully appreciate is just how hard the “revisiting the childhood set cards” actually can be. As a kid I was around for and I opened all WOTC sets.
Personally, I have a goal of getting every 1st Edition WOTC holo in PSA 9. After that I probably want to expand that to all WOTC cards in PSA 9, including the promos, non-holos, and reverses. Basically my goal is the PSA 9 version of what Gemmintpokemon achieved in PSA 10.
That is a massive goal that could easily occupy me for the next decade… or more.
Yes I appreciate Japanese, acknowledge its uniqueness, and admire its exclusives and trophies and print quality and all its other positives. However, my nostalgic connection to English WOTC and hugely ambitious goals there make it impractical for me to branch out anytime soon in any meaningful way.
I realize this is an anecdote, but I do think it is worth remembering that there may be many other collectors out there that have a goal similar to mine, whether it be raw or graded. English might not have the same endgame or difficulty as Japanese, but it can still become an immense journey in its own right.
This probably only loosely relates to the topic at hand (whole market trends and shifts between English and Japanese), but it’s something I’ve felt should be expressed, as another perspective on the common narrative that I see posted all the time.
All I can say is 2020 prices are making me grateful for current prices. Woulda been really hard to complete my collection goals if prices stayed close to peak prices.
I’m not trying to be controversial, but why do you believe Japanese is superior? I got into modern Japanese due to better handling on supply, and I got into vintage Japanese due to being the OG artworks and the much lower price.
A PSA 10 Japanese Jungle Vaporeon is $300-$00, while the English in 1st edition is probably $6000? Rough guess on prices, but that is a no-brainer when just looking at the math. The demand for Japanese has to be much lower on Vintage, which is why I can keep grabbing these for so cheap.
Well, know I am over here solo following you and your buddies same plan 
A great part about having nostalgia for English and collecting English sets is I don’t have any attachment to Japanese, meaning I can use them for profit and not feel an ounce of regret when it comes time to sell.
I just collect the cards, so prices of graded cards don’t matter when it comes to what is better. Japanese has a lot more unique cards, promos, holos, etc, making it far superior
Do you buy cards in hopes of larger percentage growth in order to flip into your primary goal cards? I only have nostalgia for cards up to Neo Genesis, so I personally agree with your thoughts. I buy many cards in hopes of them growing more than others to grab more grail cards later.
I’ll probably be wrong, so know if looking for a bunch of Japanese holos, or 1st edition PSA10 Jungle/Fossil common/uncommons in 10 years, hit me up 
Side note, how do you all have Pokemon underneath your messages? That’s cool!
I don’t know if ‘superior’ is the right word in this case unless you’re looking at the top end of the hobby with card value. I definitely agree that Japanese has more depth in terms of unique releases along with better print quality on average, but it seems too reductionist imo to say JP > ENG or vice versa.
I have many interests in the hobby that extend beyond my collection goals. I love ultramodern, and I do actually buy some Japanese cards (mainly the 20th and 25th Anniversary cards and products).
I have not tried to make money in one area of the hobby solely to fund collection goals in another area of the hobby. Everything I buy is something I thoroughly enjoy as a collector. However, I do expect to consolidate and focus more in the future, especially if I start noticing my goals getting out of reach. So there may come a time in the future when I’ll sell things that don’t contribute towards my goals, to help me achieve my goals. For this reason I do try picking up duplicates of things I really like and “believe in”, so that I might capture some of that possible growth without needing to ever sell my last copy of something.
As a whole I see many opportunities in the current market and I don’t feel any FOMO pressure. However, as we know nothing here is static, and there is always the personal risk that the hobby could grow faster than one’s own budget. So for that reason it’s always good to recalibrate and reassess goals. Maybe the things I’m after today won’t be the same a year from now and I’ll have different goals entirely. I try to remain open to new ideas and to not be too rigid with my decisions.
It is just personal preference between English and Japanese but Japanese has almost always had better quality. And in regard to more modern cards, Japanese has a finer (usually considered better or more appealing) texture on full arts. Plus the endless amounts promos.
Vintage Japanese had guaranteed holos for most sets. Coupled with higher quality so higher grades in Japanese aren’t as hard to get as vintage English plus more sentimental attachment and demand for English results in most vintage Japanese holos being cheaper than English.
Is Japanese vintage better because they had better set quality or are vintage psa 10 English holos better than Japanese because they’re less common because of worse print quality? Semantics.
