Is the Pokemon card market stagnating?

[pfm]

I went to an event recently. There were a lot of vendors and comparably not many attendees. The impression I got was that it was hard to sell things and virtually no vendor was buying anything.

One thing I’ll note is that nearly every vendor sold the same kind of things. Just a combination of the following:

• vintage English binder with very played cards
• modern sparkly binder, with Japanese and English golds, supporter, alts etc.
• CGC junk slabs, modern 10s, NM graded vintage
• the occasional more valuable slab but these tend to be not priced to sell

Overall it struck me that there really was not much diversity in what you could buy. Or more specifically, everyone was selling the lowest hanging fruits.

I had a brief discussion with one of the vendors who re-entered during 2020. He mentioned he hoped this was “the bottom”, meaning that prices are currently their lowest and will stagnate or rise from this point today.

I think he’s in for a rough time.

I started collecting graded in 2013 and have been pretty active since 2016. I’ve seen what the bottom looks like. I do not think we will ever go back to those prices, but I do think we are at the beginning of whatever is happening, not the end.

The one nuance often lost in this type of discussion is that “Pokemon cards” are not all the same. There are cards that will weather every storm and will always remain relatively desirable and valuable. And there’s a spectrum between that and what many would call junk slabs. That spectrum applies to both rarity and condition - meaning a card that is more rare or in a condition that is hard to acquire will have an extra layer of protection against the general market trends.

That said, I think we have hit an inflection point. Specifically that the number of cards slabbed, singles listed and sellers in the market are beginning to exceed the current demand for a lot of different categories of cards. What I mean by this is similar to what happened to base set in 2020-2021. The demand outstripped the supply by a significant degree. PSA 10 Bulbasaur sold for $15k, played unlimited copies sold for $25. Then there was an immediate and dramatic correction once PSA returns started coming back and the supply of cards completely outstripped the demand - because the supply was created under the assumption that 2021 demand would hold.

I think we are in the middle of a slow-motion version of that across a larger category of cards. I think in the last year, the demand has shrunk and also the buying power of the average consumer had shrunk. Meaning there are less people buying and they are more particular about what they are actually buying. At the same time, new LLCs and logo-branded instagram accounts and online cardshops are popping up daily. Every month it seems another 200k undesirable cards are being graded by CGC to be put in mystery boxes. Those cards don’t just vanish, they end up right back on the secondary market.

We are reaching a point of unsuitability. Attempting to pour more water in a cup that entirely full. What happens? it overflows. I think we are at the beginning of a moment where there is just a collapse in price for the average collect-a-con vendor inventory.

Here’s are signs to look out for:

• mass liquidation of slabs or modern hits
• more mystery boxes
• record low auctions
• slabs at 50% the cost of grading them
• more sellers complaining about prices (buyers are quiet )

I don’t think the effect of so much supply has baked in quite yet. Over time, I think the sentiment will shift in response to the reality that it just much harder to sell anything today. That sentiment is self-fulfilling too, leading to more people being particular about what they buy or not buying at all.

tldr:

What do you think?

[Will]

I agree that desirable items will remain desireable and perform better than their less desireable, or overly plentiful, counterparts.

Gemrate has been showing there have been about as many TCG cards graded by PSA than football, basketball, baseball, and soccer combined for at least the past few months I’ve been checking. Now not all of those are Pokemon, but the number is still noteable (over 500k tcg cards per month).

I’m excited to see what the next year brings. It’s still a while down the line, but if we do see a downtrend, the 30th anniversary in 2026 will be an interesting watch too to see if it has a significant impact.

[jonbo]

I agree. On a tangentially related note, I have always wondered where all of this crap goes. Who is absorbing it all? People sending in thousands of mostly garbage cards to CGC every month to churn through on Whatnot - where do they go???

It’s mostly just a rhetorical question but the reason I bring it up is because it has always struck me as totally unsustainable. I think whatever we’re experiencing the start of lately is going to really be highlighted by the absolute mountain of total crap that has to be out there somewhere. I just can’t see a world where someone can keep doing that over and over “forever” and have people still be interested.

[corinn]

@pfm

but I do think we are at the beginning of whatever is happening, not the end.

Absolutely agree with this. I came back to collecting in the last two year and while researching the market/hobby I have seen so much junk being sold/bought/traded and so many cards being graded that had no business even being in a penny sleeve.

I understand maybe grading 1 or 2 cards because they have sentimental value to the collector, but people will grade anything “vintage”. It’ll be very interesting to see what’s going to happen in the coming year.

[expedition]

From personal/anecdotal experience:

I try to flip/grade to fund my own collection goals, and I’ve noticed cards being a lot harder to move. Luckily, I recently sold a fair amount to a first time vendor (he mentioned some convention in February that he was buying inventory for), and I didn’t want to mention it to him, but I also thought it was going to be pretty bleak.

At the same time the cards I’m eyeing or want to keep for the long haul seem to be very steady (which are mostly the higher end/more expensive cards). Something something K shaped.

I reckon this will be the lull that will see a lot of people leave the hobby again…

[wisewailmer]

So many people are overleveraged RN it’s beyond scary

[eeveeteam]

I always run across doubles, buying lots where I need a few of the cards, and sell the rest. Cards sit for weeks or months before selling. A year or 2 ago, if priced right, a card would sell overnight.

[smpratte]

Its probably pretty stagnant for people selling the same cards the same way.

[wisewailmer]

I said it yesterday but we’re in denial phase. I’ve seen a few in the bargaining phase
“Oh I paid this I can’t take any lower”

But yeah it’s the start of the grief process for those who bought heavily in 2020-23 (and didn’t liquidate in the same time lol)

[tm26]

Stagnating has a negative connotation to it; I think things are normalizing. Sounds like a lot of what is being pushed are items buyers have little urgency to purchase. Whatever’s worth buying typically isn’t priced to sell.

[pfm]

Aka the vast majority of people by definition

[pfm]

I’m sure the people who are stuck with a bunch of inventory they can’t move without taking a loss will be happy to find out the market is only “normalizing” and not “stagnating”

[triple]

Collectibles are just down right now, which means I can buy more for less hehe

[brendantheclayboy]

I hope grading starts to lose popularity again like it was pre 2020 and especially modern starting to be viewed as pointless and silly to grade, which it of course is. And on top of that I cringed incredibly hard when people started sending in played cards in 2020. Those don’t belong in slabs, what is the point unless you value sending in sentimental cards for collection that you won’t be selling (and therefore never seen on market anyway)? So I hope anyone doing that these days gets a hard wake up call and stops flooding ebay with bullshit that I have to scroll past when I am looking for cards.

I’ve always been in the camp that I hate that pokemon became so expensive and would love it to go down and become more accessible so that just the people who want to buy remain. Exception goes to the people who make a living out of it but also find it hard to sell any cards because the love the hobby so much.

Also a note is that literally every single freaking card I want is only going up. So…. Where’s my stagnation?

[JoshB]

These last few months I’ve almost completely halted attempts to grow my eBay store (both vintage/modern) from what is currently a pretty insignificant presence on eBay UK. Partly because of other life priorities, but mainly because of everything pfm’s laid out here. And that’s not out of despair, but just out of an objective reaction to the longer term market shift.

It’s simply not worth it to sell most cards right now, regardless of era. Especially if you don’t have a large audience or social media-buffed buyer pool who will err on the side of loyalty purchases that afford the seller a reasonable margin. But for me, that’s fine. I refuse to sell anything at a loss, and I will switch my focus towards other cash flows that will fund more purchases. I’ll just sit on what I have until the sun shines again.

Shadowless holos, no rarity JP base, Masaki promos and Lucky Stadium PSA 9+ promos are examples of what’s on the current JoshB buylist (Gengar PSA 9 Masaki recently eluded me ending at sub £1k - just what). Similarly, for modern purchases I have much less of a trawler net approach than I’ve previously had, and instead started to make far more focused decisions, reserving capital exclusively for what I see as those long-term “no-brainers”. PWGFH Promo being the most recent example.

I suppose the TL;DR would be, recognise what’s happening, shift approach accordingly, adjust patience levels. Adjust expectations. Remember history often repeats itself. Especially remember what the modern shills said about vintage in 2023.

[tm26]

It’s those same inventories that have contributed to an unsustainable price point for items that really aren’t scarce at all. You noted that nearly every vendor was selling the same kinds of things. What did they think was going to inevitably happen? Did they think themselves immune to the laws of supply and demand?

[smpratte]

Exactly! Stagnation implies not selling. Plenty of items are selling, some more than fine. In fact the market is very liquid. This is entirely an oversupply issue. More specifically, too many people selling the same cards. Along with cards that have no added value graded.

[thsigma]

the cabal works in mysterious ways

[JoshB]

For me, stagnation in this regard describes what’s happening to average sale prices (of all cards, all eras) rather than a description of their liquidity. There’s definitely still plenty of liquidity, but cards are simply liquid at lower prices. Sellers capitulating and resigning to lower, or negative, margins as a result of the overbearing downward market pressures described above. I certainly don’t see all this as an inherently “bad” thing, just an inevitable economic reaction. In general, and as you’ve said before @smpratte, it’s a much better time to be a buyer - 2017 vibes coming back.

[Typhlosion_Collector]

Margin Call: The Music Has Stopped