I do believe that a retrace is healthy for a market. We had multiple swing points broken and it’s retracing. There are base box breaks happening currently and in the near future that should continue to bring awareness.
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The Unlimited Zard has already seen a decent retrace in the 8 and 9 grades, too little sales data on 10s to see how those prices have fared.
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I’m talking about the 10 specifically as that is what the box price is tied to generally.
I see it as a rule of 10% (very loose). The unlimited Zard in a psa 10 is 10% value of the 1st edition version. This will be put to the test if the 1st Zard ever climbs to that 1 million mark!
More supply hitting the market right now and not enough buyers at the $35,000 mark. Makes sense, people shouldn’t forget that they were less than $5,000 one year ago. Pokémon buyers market is still very young. If the PSA 10 charizard unl doesn’t drop, the box shouldn’t drop either
PSA 6-9 drops makes sense because there’s so many out there and so many that are yet to be graded. Those massive price increases are unsustainable
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Anyone seen any recent sales?
even less than that last summer. remember people struggling to get 3.5k for a box at national card shows. haggling with guys over raw shadowless zards for 150$ o.O
The growth in 2020 is like none i think we will ever see in the hobby again. But honestly who knows (that’s what makes it fun and exciting along side just finishing my many set goals) 
Who knows 2021 will have lockdowns, stimulus, 25 year anniversary, and Tokyo olympics. Might give 2020 a run for it’s money.
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Please no
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Anyone have any recent sales?
24k last night PWCC
WOW! Dropping like a rock in water!
Yeah it was inevitable. There is a 56.3% probability of getting at least 1 Charizard in a Base Unlimited booster box. Then if you do get one, there’s probably only a 10% chance it’s going to get a PSA 10.
It’s sort of analogous to this:
Flip a coin. If you get heads, roll two dice. If you get a 12, then jackpot, you just won a PSA 10 Unlimited Charizard!
How much is it worth? Oh, less than 30k? Hey the box cost more than that! *Box price drops*
Note: I own a Base Unlimited box (it’s actually my only sealed vintage item), so I totally don’t want the prices to go down! I’m just being realistic with the numbers. Once the singles go back up, of course the box will follow.
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Interested how you got 56%?
There are 15 different holos, since Machamp can’t be pulled from packs.
I’m assuming there will be 12 holo packs in the box, since this is normally the case.
Each time you open a holo pack, there’s a 14/15 (93.3%) chance it is NOT a Charizard.
After opening 12 holo packs, the odds you still haven’t gotten a Charizard: (14/15)^12
So, the odds you HAVE gotten at least 1 Charizard in 12 holo packs is: 1 - (14/15)^12 = 0.563 = 56.3%
Similarly, in a sealed case of 6 boxes, the odds of at least 1 Charizard is 1 - (14/15)^72 = 99.3%
Of course, I’m also assuming that all 15 holos are equally likely to be obtained from holo packs. I haven’t seen any evidence that this isn’t the case, but I suppose it’s always possible that some are slightly rarer than others.
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If there’s 12 holos in a box, and 15 unique ones, wouldn’t that make it an 80% chance to pull any specific one?
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Intuitively it seems like it, but it doesn’t quite work that way.
What you are saying would be true IF each box had a guarantee that you wouldn’t get duplicate holos. If there were no duplicates then in that case you’d get 12 unique holo Pokemon in the 12 holo packs. Since there are only 15 Pokemon to choose from, there’d be an 80% chance that Charizard would be one of your 12 unique pulls. That’s probably why it’s easy to assume there’s an 80% chance of getting Charizard.
Another way to see why this isn’t true is imagine that Base Set was smaller and the packs had only 10 different holo Pokemon to choose from, instead of 15. Then you might be tempted to say there’s 10 unique holos, 12 packs, so 120% chance you’d get a specific one. So guaranteed. Of course that can’t be true, because you might get a ton of duplicates and still not get a specific one you are after.
So yeah, the calculations I showed above give the answer according to probability theory.
P = Probability of at least 1 copy of a specific holo in k packs, if there are N unique holos in the set:
P = 1 - ( (N-1) / (N) )^k
k = 12 for every booster box
N = 15 for base set
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I need to take a refresher statistic course. Gary you ever see more than 3 of a certain holo Pokémon in an individual box? Adding in a finite maximum of 3 would play into the math somehow.
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If we do assume that there are never more than 3 copies of the same holo Pokemon in a box, then I think the odds of getting at least 1 Charizard goes up to 61.6%.
You can solve this problem by imagining the following scenario: The machine prints 45 holos. It prints 3 copies of each of the 15 Pokemon.
Of those 45 holos, 12 are randomly inserted into packs.
When you open the 1st pack, there’s a (42/45) chance you won’t get a Charizard.
If you didn’t get a Charizard yet, then when you open the 2nd pack, there’s a (41/44) chance you won’t get a Charizard.
…
If you didn’t get a Charizard yet, then when you open the 12th pack, there’s a (31/34) chance you won’t get a Charizard.
All 3 Charizards in the original pool are still on the table, none of them made it into packs.
The probability of this happening is:
(42/45) * (41/44) * … * (31/34) = 0.384
What we really want to know is, what’s the probability of getting at least 1 Charizard in those 12 packs.
That is 1 - 0.384 = 0.616 = 61.6%.
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61.6% is the lowest probability of the 3 boxes. So your odds are actually higher than that when you average over the 3 boxes…
In this example there’s only one box being opened which we assume has 12 holo packs. 61.6% is the probability of getting at least 1 Charizard in the box, based on the above assumption. You could get 1, 2, or 3 Charizards. The total probability of getting either 1, 2, or 3 Charizards is 61.6%.
Again, this is assuming that it’s impossible to get more than 3 copies of the same holo in the same box. If we remove that restriction, then the odds of at least 1 Charizard in the box falls down to 56.3%.