I think people have to learn from the past… here is a close analogy to something quite similar, which in fact was released in a more restrictive ways and where the raw card was selling for $2K+:
So in 6 months (or less) likely the pop report of (grey…) will likely to go 5 times the pop of the “pikachu on the ball promo”… Also probably thousands received from Pokemon Centers are heading to PSA as we speak.
I still stand by saying psa 10 will hoover around $60-70 within a year.
This frenzy/mania is pretty much driven by FOMO amplified by influencers and repeated in way that maintain that feeling (obviously when the next big things comes this will vanish and price will start plummeting)
I think the demand for the card far exceeds the demand for Pikachu on the ball in my opinion, so even if you set everything else aside I’d have a hard time believing this card could drop that low. To me this card seems similar in distribution and difficulty to grade as Special Delivery Pikachu, so I’d guess PSA 10s fall more in the line with those prices . That said, I still think the demand for this card is higher and without another wave there still seem to be people who wanted the card that couldn’t get it without going to eBay or another marketplace.
I doubt , but let’s just patient and wait next year to evaluate the situation (if it’s still worth it and we will have waves of other items where people will fomo.)
Another wave has already been announced - people tend to forget that.
Pokemon jointly with the Van Gogh museum decided to stop giving this free card due to potential security threat from people preying on museum visitors to buy for resell or just plainly pressure visitors.
They announced that pokemon will collaborate with selected game store in Netherlands to distribute the cards early next year (exactly similar to what happened to “pikachu on the ball”). So more supply is on its way and no brainer on what will happen next.
For sellers, they will be just able to recoup their grading fee and purchase cost. For buyers… by the time when the card will be cheap , they won’t be any buyer , that’s how it works , further pressuring the price downward.
I m glad if one day the discussion will move toward something more of a real problem for many of those buyers and also evaluating marketing tactics being used : false scarcity, fomo, buyer impulse, addiction etc…
In all cases, the pokemon marketing unit got the pulse of the market and reaffirmation that people cannot stop fomo even in the current economical context.
The extra supply hitting dutch game stores is not extra, it is just leftover supply from the museum, no extra cards will be printed for that release.
The demand for this card is so much higher than that for pikachu on the ball or special delivery promos. I can see it dipping a bit, but I would expect the price not to crash.
You forgot to factor in that international shipping from UK and EU are both extremely expensive. Pikachu on the ball costs like $15 to the locals but close to $40-50 for foreigners during their local game store release. This would apply to van gogh pika too.
It is a Pikachu, but the print run of this is more than set cards, so I don’t see how it’ll maintain its price.
I am super bearish now though. Refuse to buy anything because I believe the market is actually really shallow and the economy being shit is making it worse.
The stamp pikachu promo has over 10,000 graded copies at PSA with a psa 10 rate of nearly 90% and yet raw versions of that card are selling for almost 400 and psa 10 copies selling for around 500$.
This card has a psa 10 rate of about 50%. You’re ludicrous or high on copium if you think psa 10 copies if this card will ever sell below 100 dollars.
If PSA 9 goes lower than raw we are literally chilling. It doesnt seem like the easiest grade, but i guess we will have a clearer picture in a few months. I also think the best condition copies are going into PSA first bc the cost of grading is still relatively high, but that may not be a huge factor with the whole grade as many as quickly as possible thing going on today. Itd be interesting to see if the growth of PSA 10s decreases + how sharply in the next 6 months
Were they confirmed to be coming back? Last time I talked to customer service a couple weeks ago they said there was still a 90 day wait on some existing orders to be produced.
A short time during the release date they had a message that the prints would come back. The message has no changed and does not include anything about the prints, but I guess they will still come back.
Interesting. Theoretically something they can produce themselves should be the easiest item to bring back. Most likely just getting caught up on production at the moment I would assume.
They also have to deal with the fiasco of trying to drop the museum items online and the site died before the drop even happened, so they had to postpone it.
the amount of people who think the card is gonna crash. the price went up on TCGplayer to 180 each. and Japan paying 250 each. yea they won’t go down. even with the wave early next year
Supply is mostly gone now because thousands and thousands of cards are currently sitting at grading companies.
All these cards will eventually come back and hit the market in the next few months.
Very curious how things will balance out.
Crystal ball mode ON 
]
, that’s how it works 
, further pressuring the price downward.
