Almost always
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I think the 2 year thing is based on the assumption that you want to buy low so thatâs approximately the timeframe when there is still available supply but interest has moved on making it a good âlowâ point
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The market is indeed in a weird state so that the 2 year waiting doesnât feel like very universal guideline. The sampling or follow-up isnât very thorough but iâve seen a bunch of cards that had the cheapest price on day one and then started to climb, a lot of them are still sub 20$ cards so not that it has any massive difference. I did sell the gengar vmax alt art around the 2 year mark with big profit too after buying it close to the release which i mentioned in other thread too but that might be a bit outlier too since i usually donât follow the card prices of the ones i already own, but still something relatively notable out of that 2 year guideline.
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thank you for sharing your perspective. Btw, where is the best place to look at price history?
TCGPlayer for sales on their platform across pretty much all TCGs.
For eBay thereâs pricecharting or pokedata which also captures for graded cards. TCGFish as well for graded cards.
But obviously that depends on the data captured which is reliant on naming conventions and descriptions being correct/accurate.
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Thank you for the informative response. Iâm mostly curious about Japanese price histories. I know TCGplayer often doesnât have that. Any leads for JP prices?
For graded cards 130point dot com is really good but Iâm also new to this and there may be better options. I also donât speak Japanese so assume sales from over there are hard to find data on unless you speak the language.
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one thing i should have specified is that i was speaking on japanese versions. i know eng is by far more volatile. it seems more prone to influence from hype through social media/content creators. never know when all of a sudden things will spike momentarily which often lead to conversations like these.
jp typically is more stable (one clear exception was the waifu boom a year or two ago). most cards get close to bottoming out after a couple months aside from high class packs (such as shiny treasures ex or vstar universe) where there are numerous reprints throughout the following year that continue to lower prices.
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People here really donât understand demand because itâs hard to measure lol.
I wouldnât necessarily say people here donât understand it. Everyone has a different take and opinion. Demand for vintage will always be higher than modern. The day that itâs not will be the day I step away from collecting for good.
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I mean vintage demand isnât necessarily higher than modern lol. It really depends on what set you are talking about. Overtime the longer PokĂ©mon lasts, the demand is gonna be concentrated more so on the best cards of every era not just one particular era. Like for wotc vintage Iâm being honest if you didnât grow up in that era most people arenât gonna care too much about most sets besides base set cause of the initial cost basis making the overall demand much less than modern lol.
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Unfortunately I canât agree with any one thing you said. If I decide one day to start investing in Pokemon cards instead of collecting them, there might be a sliver of a chance I might be open to believing that. Until then,(very unlikely) I will continue to believe vintage will always be in a higher demand. Price points also prove this. It makes zero sense for me to say that modern is in a higher demand OR that the demand for modern and vintage is the same.
Price points definitely do not prove this. It depends on what you are even trying to define. Are you talking about market cap for a card? Which card and set are you comparing? Raw or graded? Psa 10? What about Cgc or bgs slabs? Market liquidity? Like you have to be way more specific if you are trying to generalize with such a broad statement in terms of demand lol.
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Can you elaborate this?
Itâs kinda funny how fast those Van Gogh Pikachuâs are being sent in just the past month
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The demand today is definitely way higher for modern than vintage. However thatâs a recent phenomenon in the past 3-4 years.
Demand changes over time. Modern becomes vintage. Evolutions was a boring saturated set, now itâs highly regarded. Hidden Fates was enormously popular but no one seems interested in it anymore.
Demand isnât static for perpetuity
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Fomo > any fundamentals/logic
Remember even if they are pop 4k in a PSA 10 there is still way more demand than supply.
I, like many people here, didnt buy any because we thought we were smarter than the market and âMoonbreon definitely gonna dump after it goes around $800â
Maybe we are the stupid ones!
Lesson learned.
That being said, now is a dangerous time to buy.
If you like the art, buy when they are cheaper.
If you are buying for an investment purpose, buy when they are cheaper.
Sadly people are buying them now as they are thinking they must continue continue to go up.
What goes up just come downâŠ
But hey maybe Iâm just being stoopid again.
Just because itâs irrational to you doesnât mean it is to others.
Iâm fairly sure 99% of normal people think we are all monkeys for spending as much on cardboard as we do.
Maybe we were irrational for NOT stacking these Moon kitty things sub $800?
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lol yea thatâs the million dollar question right now
Definitely dangerous times for speculators (which is a majority of modern demand) as the people buying now are âmaturingâ in the hobby at a time where stuff has only gone up exponentially and a time when grading is basically a participation trophy (to quote @gottaketchumall )They werenât around, or donât know, what happened to sports cards and comics in the 90s. The donât know that âmodernâ pokemon miserably failed from 2004-2016, when the amount of cards printed was like 1/10th of current. If the fomo/flipper mentality ever disappears, modern is going to have a really bad time. That doesnât need to be true for all cards, however (maybe moonbreon really is iconic) but it will be true for the other 99%.
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I think you are doing what I said we were all trying to do (and it failed us) - trying to be too smart / logical / analytical about it.
The fact that moonbreon stayed the price it did around $1k for so long, defied all logic (and therefore a lot of us missed out on an opportunity).
Most people I know who bought them are noobs for sure but are genuine collectors.
I have given up trying to guess the market - itâll do what it does.
Iâll buy stuff I like at a price point I think is cheap - eg Shadowless 9s are so undervalued rn in my opinion.
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