This is only true for the short term in the market as prices were driven by impulsive emotions and current trends so is completely unsustainable.
Fundamentals and logic are much more important and will prevail every time in the long term as it’s not driven and inflated by emotions but analysis of the market.
Yes prices that are completely irrational and volatile based on FOMO will fall into balance. This balance will happen in the mid-long term.
Can I borrow your crystal ball?
This is the point I’m making - No one truly knows anything, and to say otherwise is simply silly.
You can make an educated guess - but as I said above, Moonbreon has defied all logic (ignore the recent pump) and 99% of people’s predictions in this forum by staying around $1k for so long.
Some other alts behave similarly, some don’t.
Clearly there is sustained demand for the cards. They will likely do well in the long run value wise - but who knows.
“Fundamentals” are also not static. There are more fundamentals outside of “older minter rarer better”.
Seriously though, I’d like to borrow your crystal ball.
I need several of these for my artist collections, and I’ve asked myself this many time. I’ve decided to disregard them. They’re not worth it at all, IMO. There are just so many units printed, and I can’t see people holding them for a decade, only to see zero growth or even negative growth.
We are in a golden era of art, and with more and more great cards coming out, I can’t see how the old ones, with almost ZERO fundamentals, will retain value. I could be wrong, but I flat-out refuse to engage with them right now.
@charizardespana No one truly knows. Well, we KNOW this is true. heh
You have good points, but…
The trick is to try to see where the lines are converging. Patterns emerge over time, and there may be things that can be anticipated through these patterns. The trick is to filter the info. There’s still a lot of noise over some of these chase cards, and it’s hard to see if it’s genuine interest, or egoism (which is highly pervasive in society today). I prefer to try to find the egotism, and remove it… I can’t yet. So I, personally, choose not to get involved.
No crystal ball here I’m afraid, just a long time collector who’s seen it all and with a dash of common sense.
Moonbreon has been released now for almost 3 years. Thats still relatively short term by all means even within Pokemon. Maybe it’s quite a long time for collectors who entered in the 2020 boom.
So I suppose it depends on what your term long run means in terms of time because I think we’re just talking of different time frames. My long term isn’t equal to your long run.
Right well you just seemed so certain, I assumed you had knowledge we didn’t !
Ok, so define a timeframe of when something is “doing well” or “doing badly”?
It’s all very subjective.
Modern alts could do well in the next 15 years - many kids/adults got into the hobby in swsh era and its logical that these items could appreciate over time.
Perhaps they will look back in 10 years with some nostalgia to it.
Swsh era has probably been one of the most “popular” blocks in the last decade, arguably as popular as Evo during Pokémon Go release.
Prices will likely come back down on alts but long term (whatever that is for you) I see them having the potential of doing ok.
Ps. I don’t own any modern cards besides the ones I’ve opened with my kids - I personally have no interest in them.
It’s not about making accurate predictions or being right or wrong. I personally never made any prediction on whether Moonbreon would go up, down or sideways and I wouldn’t make a prediction today either.
The reality we find ourselves in right now is just one of many options. We could have just as well ended up in a situation where Moonbreon slowly trends up or down for many years. It’s easy to say retroactively what the best choice was.
For me, the opportunity cost at buying @ $800 was not worth it. The downside risk was also, and continues to be, extraordinarily high.
People like to look to the top of the mountain when trying to speculate on things. But these things tend to already be optimized for the current market so it tends to be a gamble with a lot of potential downside risk. In contrast, virtually all of my best speculative purchases have been things no one was paying attention to bought at bottom floor prices (ie. with virtually no downside risk).
So no one is smart or stupid by making a profit (or not making a profit) off of Moonbreon in the same way that no one is smart or stupid for winning money from (or choosing not to play) a slot machine.
Very new modern set has 2-3 cards people deem as chase cards. They are all subbed at higher rates and quantity. The price usually goes around the $200-300 mark. Few months later the price drops substantially. Few reasons is because a new set is released so the chain starts all over again. Modern is seen as higher in demand because it’s newer, cooler, interesting but once a new set comes out the prices drop off. Same with majority of consumer goods. New iPhone gets released with 10% minimal differences then last years model and the price of last years model drops off and people don’t prefer it. It’s ingrained in people’s brain to believe that the newer is always better. Moonbreon is an outlier. There hasn’t been a card from a modern set that has reached the sales and desire for that card. Modern is more liquid than vintage because it’s cheaper and makes a couple extra bucks faster. There will always be someone new to Pokemon who spends a bunch of money buying packs and ETBs searching for that chase card because a YouTuber or WhatNot streamer or Let’s Gooooo! Screamer said to. Grade everything they say, you’ll be rich! lol. You can get products from distributors cheap and then resell them for a minimal profit. You do it in large amounts and people make a good nickle. BGS shouldn’t be used with Pokemon demand for obvious reasons and CGC is the poor man’s PSA. Outside of PSA 10s and buying raw for binders nobody wants a modern card in anything under PSA 10. (Again there’s a handful of cards that are outliers). Why would you? Most modern cards at PSA 10 are around the 40-50 dollar range. Most modern sets have 2-3 cards max that are over $200 in PSA 10. If you take the financial aspect out(which is what modern is only for) grading modern is pointless. For example if you were given 20k to spend on only modern or vintage, which would you choose? A bunch of moonbreons PSA 10s or a full base set holo set or a Neo Destiny Shining Set or bunch of Gold Stars in PSA 10? I know what I would choose. Sorry for the long word salad but hopefully this gave some insight on my thought process and why I believe vintage will always be in higher demand.
I get that this forum skews heavily towards interest in vintage. And I think there are some cool not modern cards. And I also think that everyone should definitely buy what interests them. It’s my opinion that maybe people have a blind spot for various reasons that I could only speculate on regarding modern.
So, imagine you’re a new person who entered in the last five years. Or better yet, show these two pictures to any kid and ask them in a non creepy way which one they prefer. My point is, I think demand is massive for modern (xy forward) from anyone entering and even people who grew up with the original cards.
To answer the question, if I got 10k and had to spend it on pokemon, I’m going to choose the best looking cards. Full art cards look better to the majority of people. In my opinion people entering in the future are also going to feel this way, just look at what people are interested in right now. The majority are not going to want to collect WOTC
I do think that ultramodern alt arts won’t continue to go up at these rates. A large percentage of people will move on to whatever else pokemon comes up with next assuming it looks as good or better than SWSH. The original question of this thread was whether the price is justified given then fundamentals. Demand and art wasn’t listed so I think it was a flawed question. If the question included those items I think the answer would be yes
Pretty much this.
“Fundamentals” as repeated in this forum aren’t the only fundamentals.
I don’t collect modern but I see the allure and think some prices are justified.
But give me 1k or a Moonbreon PSA 9(one just sold for close to this) and I’m buying Wotc all day.
The great thing about this hobby is how diverse it is with collectors. Everyone likes what they like. I prefer vintage 1996-2007, old back Japanese, Japanese promos, and pikachu. Some people are species collectors or only collect modern FA. Everyone has their thing they love. None are bad. Everyone will always have their opinion and engage in dialogue about the hobby. At the end of the day if someone says modern is better than vintage it’s just an opinion not a fact. Same other way around. However I don’t see how modern is in such a massive demand were I I need to my lcs and clear them out of everything. 90% of the time they are offering discounts on everything because they have a hard time selling it. Everyone playing at the tables is playing Yu-Gi-Oh and MTG. Walmart and Target always are fully stocked. A lot of slabs on Z&G and Probstien are selling really cheap. I don’t see the huge demand in my real life day to day activities especially in the NYC area that I live in with so many people.
Will modern be able to recreate that natural emotion to these cards ? People come back to the vintage cards not because of the artwork on a piece of cardboard, there’s layers to it.
That’s why vintage cards are still being bought 25 years after they released
i’d be willing to bet most cards are still being bought aside from some random trainers regardless of era. even also, i doubt many people are going out of their way to buy energy flow from gym heroes.
you could argue more people are buying vintage than, say BW, but also, more people were collecting during the first few years than BW. just like more people are collecting today than BW.
in another 25 years, i doubt there will be as many 60+ year olds who say “you know what, i want to get back into pokemon for the first time since i was a kid” as, say, 30ish year olds who are growing up with current gens.
i don’t expect current modern to have as high of a ceiling as the upper end of vintage, but i do expect it to have a higher floor.
for example, i don’t expect it to be as easy to go and buy a raw (damaged) umbreon V SR SA (in any language) for $30 in 20 years like you can with the neo 2 holo today.
You think these cards will still be sought after in 25 years, I’m not so sure. Neither of us have a crystal ball though so we will need to wait!
Love your take and the points you made.
Lots of linear thinking going on here especially for a hobby that is so dynamic. If you compare the state of the hobby between now and 2019 or 2014 or 2009 or 2004 or 1999 they are all completely different from each other. I couldn’t tell you what Pokemon collecting is going to look like in 2029 but I think you’re in for a suprise if you think the current market dynamic are going to be relevant then
What do you think TPCI adding serialized 1/case (or rarer) versions of the top chase cards in sets would do to the hobby?
Make it worse
If you need to rely on serialized cards to have interest it means Pokémon is beyond saving since that is what dead tcg or sports cards need in order to manufacture demand as a last resort
Serialized cards would mark the downfall of the Pokemon TCG. I love modern, but you can count me out if it turns to parallels, serialized cards, etc.
Excuse my naivety. What are serialized cards?
