Evolving Skies Market Watch

Currently happening as we speak in the form of ETB’s and sleeved boosters.

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There was a small second wave that hit the market this past Summer 2022, which is why you see a small dip in price from March to July '22.

Completely agree. Below are the pulls from the one box I’ve opened from this set in December. I feel like I’ve used all of my luck so I won’t be opening any more. :joy:

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It looks like a lot of modern speculators are cashing out right now at $225-230. The number of low-feedback sellers on eBay and TCGPlayer slinging booster boxes is astounding.

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Personally, I bought alot of booster box cases of modern when the market was flooded with product around the end of last year. Im not a BiG BrAiN InVeStOr StOnKeR, but ive been involved in collectables and other markets long enough to see extreme value. Evolving skies was at like $95 a box back then, not buying it at the price seemed stupid.

I’m pretty sure ES is getting another restock wave by the end of the year, unless my LGS told me wrong.

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ok after the fact it’s easy to come to this conclusion,
the reality is that as more boxes get opened and reprint still on the agenda, singles plummet. This happened to pretty much all chase cards, well except this card. So your analysis is right but after the fact.

Seems the Australian reprint for December got cancelled.
Haven’t really heard any US reprints coming besides the ETBs that’s happening now or close to finishing.

I think we will see more BB reprints over the next 3-6 months.

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Some boxes are selling for 250. A case went for 1500. The 230 floor is pretty firmly established now, with only occasional outliers.

Such a crazy thing to witness, barely a year after the set was released and in the current economic climate.

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I would be surprised if anyone is purchasing at $230-250 pre-tax/shipping to open the product. I imagine that many of these sales are speculators increasing their inventory. :upside_down_face:

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Yeah I’m sure that is the majority at this point. Still, that is a phenomenally high price point to be getting in at, as a speculator/investor. Especially for a set that is highly likely to get reprinted.

It is giving me some Vivid Voltage bubble vibes. Those box prices were getting silly too in early 2021. In retrospect Vivid Voltage doesn’t even seem like it was worth all the hype, since it lacks alt arts. It was obviously hyped at the time, but that was before our expectations were raised by the more recent sets.

It is tempting to assume history will repeat itself, but at least for me that suspicion hasn’t been strong enough for me to sell anything (yet).

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Given the pull rates this will sound like a playground-style lie: in my first (and only to date) opening of a box of English Evolving Skies (that I got on a pre-order from Total Cards UK), I ended up pulling 3 alt-arts: the Leafeon Vmax, Golurk and Glaceon V. I thought nothing of it at the time and it wasn’t until later on when pull rates were more widely examined that I realised how much of an outlier my box had been. Of course I’ve no proof of what I pulled, but I’ve nothing to gain from lying about it - just thought it’s an interesting outlier data point for anyone interested! Probably did a bunch of other boxes out of alt arts that should have statistically been in them instead :eyes:

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I agree. Buying in to speculate at this price is risky for sure.

Pull rate is another reason why I would put PSA 10 of the alt over the boxes, mixed with the card quality. Sure you might eventually pull (After 3-4 boxes) an alt art, that will most likely be off center and grade a 9.

That point about speculators selling to other speculators is spot on. I think that kinda seeps out into other areas just now too.

On the main topic, I think from the Modern Sets, Eevee Heroes/Evolving Skies is pretty much 0 risk if you are holding it for a few years. It’s by far been the most popular set of the past few years imo and I don’t see that going away.

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I think this is a great point. Very little downside risk if they purchased for ≤$180 this past year, but I think that a lot of modern speculators are going to be disappointed in the future growth. They may be expecting boxes to go to the moon like what they saw in 2020, but that type of growth is abnormal and unsustainable when so many are hoarding ultramodern boxes. “Good” growth for ultramodern booster boxes should be around 6%-10% per year, not 100% or 200%.

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Evo skies/eevee heroes is such a money maker set im surprised TPCI/TPC hasn’t just done a massive reprint yet. Its just so insanely popular its unreal. Factor in the absurdly low pull rates on both sides…they could reprint SOOOO much of the set and itd still be swiped up.

I still have hope that they pull an evolutions and just absolutely blast the supply. Its hard to be satisfied when it costs over $1000 to complete the alt arts…in english… Who would have thought that a modern card that is just over a year old would be over $300…

We don’t even talk about the Japanese version…

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No one is paying $300 to open a box of Evolving Skies anytime soon. The pull rates are way too low to be opening a box for a slim chance to pull something good. This feels like hot potato right now, especially if they reprint the set.

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They wont be dissapointed.

This have happened over and over, it happened with vivid voltage, darkness ablaze, etc. You might say that they cant be compared since ES is a much better set but we don’t know if future sets are going to set the bare even higher.

Like some of you already mentioned, at this price point it’s hard to imagine people are buying to open product.

Small Update:

Evolving Skies sits around ~$240 (w/shipping) and appears to be leveling out.

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