I think people need to separate the points they are trying to make. First, EV by definition is based on the current value of cards to box. Not what they might be a year or 2 from now. Even if those predictions are correct (that prices will drop), that is a separate point and completely unknown.
Second, The EV for EVolutions has been solid since launch. You could almost always open it and make money. Therefore trying to obscure that reality by the current grading climate is inherently an argument from exception.
I’m not sure if you’re responding to me, but I 100% agree that our predictions about future value of the cards aren’t relevant. This is why my argument explicitly operated under the assumption that the value of PSA-graded Evolutions cards would hold.
But factors such as grading fees and tied-up capital are relevant. When we’re basing our EV calculations on PSA-graded card values, we have to take into account the fact that grading costs $20+ a card and involves tying up capital for a significant length of time.
@zorloth, I was just responding in general. Others made similar posts about future pricing & cost, which are relevant for speculation. Ironically I agree with some-most of the speculation, but the process of EV is just a quick summary of current card price to current box price. The potential long term speculation of the current EV is different, if that makes sense.
After typing this is probably one of the most nuanced points I’ve ever made (tips fedora).
We can get even more nuanced and explore the definition of EV itself. Does EV mean the value or raw cards you get out of the box or the value of cards AFTER they’ve been graded? If it’s the latter definition, you can’t actually get that EV because you can’t get cards graded in any reasonable time frame. Grading cards is clearly where the premium is realized so if we’re saying grading time isn’t relevant to EV, then the definition of EV needs to be the sum of value of raw cards (exclude graded card values).
Very good point. I think there’s no correct answer to this.
And Evolutions cards in particular only really become valuable once graded. This is much less the case with vintage set cards, where I’ve happily paid close to PSA 9 prices for truly pack fresh, mint cards. Whereas good luck selling your pack-fresh Evolutions cards for anywhere remotely close to PSA 9 prices; most raw Evolutions cards are damn near worthless.
And to be clear: I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Scott considering EV to refer to the value of cards after they’re graded. But I do think that if we’re going to conceive of EV in that way that there should be explicit mention of the fact that you’ll be tying up hundreds (or thousands) of dollars for likely over a year.
The conversation now is more about the current grading situation. Which applies to every single set, not just evolutions. EV has always just been a quick numeric snapshot of sealed prices vs its raw or graded contents. Its not an absolute all encompassing perfect idea. But its a slippery slope to start including external factors and speculation. I think its fair to point them out and discuss, but also fair to contextualize ev as a definition.
I’m with Zorloth about the pricing of evo boxes, sure lots of new collectors came in and went straight to the “cheapest set to relieve nostalgia” which is Evo but literally some months or close to a year now, those were collecting dust (plus the huge availability) and such a massive spike in price doesn’t seem natural for that product. An increase? Absolutely, but we are talking like 5x or 10x the price which is absolutely bonkers in that time frame.
Still if you had boxes at $100 or close to that, then nothing to worry about. The set will keep on gaining value, slowly but it will.
I am just seeing this, but I don’t see the boxes @zorloth is talking about… It looks like no members here could ever get it to work out but of course none other than the Great NastraZorloth…
Did any one get even a box? All I see is 36 loose packs for that price. Boxes are all around $900.
I was able to get it in my cart at $595, but it was from the store that later updated that listing to be 36 loose packs. So you’re correct that the $595 price for a sealed box does not appear to be a thing. It did appear to be a thing earlier, though.
Regardless, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to me that the box is worth 50% more than 36 loose packs (especially since they’re almost certainly legit/unweighed). It would make very little sense to pay 50% more a sealed box if one intends to crack it. Clearly the people buying $900 evo boxes are not cracking them. Anyone who wants to crack evo right now would be much better off going for loose packs from large vendors.
Looks like the XY Evolutions Booster boxes are declining. Lots of BIN for $800.
Weird mix of $750 to $1000 solds.
So as a total noob a few months ago, I cut open the case box of XY Evolutions to confirm the contents, does that devalue the box if I try to sell it as a case in the future?
Yeah, the market has really cooled off. I’ve seen 1 box for $500 sell (unsure if seal was broken though), and a few others for $750-$775.
Im sure you could advertise it as a case as long as pics/description describe it as opened. If there’s any markup at all for a sealed case vs. 6 separate boxes, then that’s probably gone. I might be wrong though.
Throwback monday to when i opened 40 evo boxes @ $110 USD.
Ive seen the prices as low as $400 USD in the last couple days.
I predict the holo zard and chansey will be the only cards from this set worth over $250 as PSA 10 in 2 years. I know there isnt any chanseys, yet, and that many cards are selling higher currently, but i suspect things will change over time.
Something we can all agree on: they did blastoise and venusaur dirty, they really deserved holo reprints.
I knew it was probable but I bought a master set for $1K.
It did come with BGS 9.5 Reverse Holo Charizard. The rest of the cards are hit or miss on pack fresh Evolutions… often off centered and/or factory line.
It wasn’t intended as an investment just because I really wanted the set and didn’t want to open packs (at insane prices) to get the cards. I like having it as a binder set since the value isn’t as crazy as base set and I can flip through for nostalgia.
But I’m not sure the master set ever retraces much below say $500… no? So I didn’t do THAT bad. Heck, maybe in the long, long run it still gets back to $1K+. Not selling regardless.
Heck, if the boxes come back down, maybe I’ll buy to open in hopes to upgrade some of my lesser centered or factory line cards. Then again, I should really just buy singles to do that!
