Can you point to a part of the market that hasn’t preformed very poorly the past several months?
To call it a ‘major retrace’ on Evolutions is quite a stretch.
@parkermrparker The $400-500 dollar boxes are scams brother. There have been a handful of them each day for months now. Boxes are selling between $700-$850.
I said “was coming” it will keep on going down, those prices were and are not sustainable. Still if someone paid like 80-200 for those boxes they will have absolutely nothing to fear, is mostly the people who bought at the peak and to the hype.
Of course everything is short-mid term, perhaps in x years we will be laughing at how “cheap” a $400 evolution box was but that we can’t foresee.
Its hard to really compare the performance of Evolutions currently to other sets/eras i.e WOTC or Hidden Fates as they all have their own intricacies that you just cant see in a small time period. Once you zoom out over a larger time horizon you will begin to see separation in performance.
There’s so many statements people make to fit their belief but you can equally find many instances of their statement not applying to another set/card with the same fundamentals. i.e everyone saying low pop/scarse items going up while everything else going down in this downturn is simply not true yet many repeat this statement everytime theres a random EX/WOTC holo thats sold for a record price, theres equally been many other EX/WOTC Holo that have fallen 30% in the last 2-3 months with the same Pop fundamentals.
Evolutions however is still holding pretty well atleast in the UK for booster boxes but I do believe its just a matter of time before the PSA returns create too much downward pressure and they hit some sort of floor before its at the point people purchase it for fun.
How’s evolutions boxes doing?
Personally, sealed Cases scare me. I hold no collectors value to the shipping box the products came packaged in just cause there’s some label and a worded tape. I only want the verifiable sealed boxes and there’s only one way to make sure you didn’t get knockoffs, fakes or trash. The shipping box it comes in is a nice bonus, but having it sealed is honestly just too risky IMO. I open all my sealed cases for this reason but I do keep the box since it literally is sized to fit and fits well. Even if I was in a position to buy direct from Pokemon with receipt in hand, I would feel too anxious to not at least open the box to make sure Pokemon didn’t screw up the order.
That makes sense. I’ve had that thought with a base set case. There is inherently a lot of faith in the deal.
About $700 on average
It’s probably time for a small update.
It’s been 5 months, 18 days since my quoted post.
Evolutions Charizard has seen a mindblowing pop increase since then of 4713, an increase of 52%, and an average of 28 charizards a day.
Meanwhile, the base set unlimited Charizard pop has seen an increase of 5932, an increase of 30%, and an average of 35 charizards a day, with a distribution spread far deeper into the lower pops.
Also, you will see there is now 2615 more PSA 9 Evo charizards than PSA 9 Base set unlimited charizards.
I think that’s pretty crazy. Considering there’s still such a huge amount of sealed product and ungraded cards.
I was going to start a new thread but the continuation of this one is likely more appropriate for these comments. I’ll do some larger updates soon.
@rainbowgx, I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet, either. The Base/Evolutions mania reached a fever pitch back in November – bulk subs from back then haven’t even started to come back yet. In other words, the real wave is yet to come.
Exactly. You can expect that a lot of the pricier cards have already been submitted at higher tiers and have more or less made their way through the system.
What we have seen reflected so far has been from the initial covid boom, along with prioritised submissions. The post LP bulk submissions haven’t been processed yet.
The wave will be comprised of primarily:a) low cost bulk;b) cards significantly cheaper at the time of their submission than now, that were below the stated value submission limit; and
c) more expensive cards submitted by people whom hoped to fly under the radar from receiving an upcharge.
The throughput issue of the grading companies (the bottle neck) is seemingly still providing an artificial scarcity of many of these cards.
On a slight tangent and speaking generally, we could still see significant new waves of supply hitting the market in the future as new potential sources of cards are met with the news of increasing prices. For example, this most recent wave has primarily hit the demographic of LP’s followers, the crypto crew, and many big youtubers with similar demographics. But there is still large segments of the population that have no idea that their collections are accumulating in value in their storage.
A lot of people expected that after the Pokemon Go boom most of the sources of supply had surfaced, which turned out to be largely false. This would be a problem if demand couldn’t increase proportionately to the increase in supply. Which thankfully had been happening for the Pokemon card market as a whole. But we saw fatigue and an expected tapering off recently. Even now there is pockets of over exuberance in cards and products, that are highly unlikely to sustain their levels of demand. Evolutions being one such bucket of products.
At the time of its increase in both price and popularity, it had prominent youtubers and celebrities pumping its sense of greatness, and these people had no idea about pokemon cards at all. Meanwhile their followers all jumped in naively, trusting in what their idols said as they pointed to how valuable these cards were. None of them realising their gains were predicated on the greater fool theory and that they were buying into products with weak fundamentals, but thinking they were getting in early on something with great investability.
Now there is just an ever increasing supply of these cards as a result of mass openings (and yet it’s still widely available sealed and in mass), meanwhile demand is likely only to further diminish without the hype. Evolutions has no fundamentals going for it from an investment perspective and is currently not at a price that is even close to enticing.
It’s like a cargo ship. The hype wave pushed it up, but the supply it’s carrying ensures it goes back down. It doesn’t mean it can’t go back up, but you need another hype wave to achieve a similar result. Meanwhile, the cargo in this example is becoming heavier with the aforementioned increasing supply. If people still think it’s a good investment, that’s fine, but the perceived risk to reward just isn’t there for me.
I don’t think another hype wave will happen. I feel like the 25th has the same type of vibe as evolutions does, so a lot of is not most people will drop evo in favor of 25th
Boxes going for 700-750
Pretty good value retention in context of the whole market.
Evolutions was $100 a box in Early August of 2020. It has held between $700-$800 for months, and after sitting stale for months like a lot of cards, it seems to be seeing some movement in demand and price recently.
We will have to see what the fall-winter season brings, which is when Evolutions saw its biggest growth last year.
My safest guess and i am highly stressing guess here…
Box will sit around 650-850 mark for the next year or 2 and slowly climb to that 1k mark again and possibly 1.2-1.5k mark 3+ years from now. It’s still sealed product with a mid/high demand and as they say “sealed product is king”. 
Cheers
