I have noticed like most of you all that the prices have sored through the roof in the last year across all 1st ed zard grades. I’ve have been trying to put predictions on the cards growth for next year considering this year has smashed records!! What are everyone’s predictions on values for this card this time next year? I’m mainly talking grades 7 and up.
Thought it would be interesting to look back on and see who’s predictions were closest.
PSA 10: 32k
PSA 9: 7,5k
PSA 8: 3,5k
PSA 7: 2k
6 Likes
I think PSA 8 will be over $3000 by year’s end. This time next year I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s over $4k, or close to $5k
Very true. The 8 is underrated especially when you have a very clean one and thick stamp. i’ve got one on center with no scratches on the front. might try break that 4k price sometime next year 
1 Like
I am gonna say…
PSA 7: 3.5k
PSA 8: 6k
PSA 9: 10k
PSA 10: 30k
I think the bottom tiered cards will grow faster.
In October 2018 if prices keep rising as they have been I wouldn’t be surprised if 10s reach 30-40k or more.
1 Like
I’m curious as to why people are guessing the numbers they are. I think it’s near impossible to make an accurate prediction that isn’t a lucky guess. I’m skeptical that any linear extrapolation of current trends is a good way of predicting in this case.
I think it’s safe to say that a lot of the interest around this card comes from a few specific events. Pawn stars, BGS 10 auction, the SMR feature, recent booster box sale. These things will give people confidence in investing in Charizard (particularly people outside the hobby), increasing demand and therefore value. If something even crazier happens in 2018, you’ll see a further-reaching interest in the card and a price spike for all grades. But of course, there’s no way to predict something like that.
On the supply side, it still seems like Charizard is pretty consistently available. Not too many people can or are willing to drop $20k on a card. For those that are, there seems to be a steady enough supply. PWCC is listing two 9s and two 10s in the next auction. My guess is they will go for current market value, perhaps slightly biased upwards. If supply stays relatively available, my guess is you’ll see a slow climb in value in 2018. I think the next big market event for this card is when a 10 doesn’t appear for consecutive months. People that would be buying 10s will start settling for 9s, rocketing up the value of 9s (and pulling lower grades up with it). Then after another 10 hits the market to break the dry spell, it will sell for a crazy amount (like the BGS 10). There will be a temporary spike in supply as people sell off the 10s they are investing in now. Then rinse and repeat. But this is total speculation and I have no idea if/when it will ever happen.
So I’ll make my guess assuming the 10 dry spell will occur within a year:
PSA 10: 56k
PSA 9: 18k
PSA 8: 12k
PSA 7: 8k
But I would also not be surprised if we only see something like a 20% increase across the board. It’s just not as fun to be correct about a conservative increase. If we look back in a year and I was pretty close with a crazy guess, people will think I’m Nostradamus or something.
2 Likes
I have noticed a very high demand still and countless people willing to pay 20k for the charizard PSA 10.
We have now reached a point of consolidation, prices have stayed fairly stable the last time and we might see more auctions end within the same price range as they have the last couple of weeks/months.
Prices will almost never increase straight linear. It is totally normal to have these consolidation periods, they need to happen to gain the trust and security of collectors. What happens is, people will now start to see the 20k as the “new” price of the Charizard and be confident enough to pay that price at least. This is exactly what we are seeing now, multiple people willing to pay the same amount but hardly any are willing to pay over that amount.
Eventually this will lead to scarcity, because the amount of PSA 10’s sold will eventually dry up, causing people to have to pay more. Last year’s rise was mainly caused by the Pokémon go hype and countless amounts of dumb facebook video’s telling your cards are worth great money. More collectors have entered the hobby and also investors looking to make long term profits. This caused the rapid growth in price.
However, I don’t see any of these events occuring again, hence I am predicting a price rise that is less radical than the price rise we have seen in the last year. But due to scarcity kicking in I can see it hitting the number I predicted.
As you say, yes it’s all just speculation. However I try to make an estimate based on my knowledge of how the market works and also taking in account the variables like supply and demand and event’s like GO 
1 Like
Great prediction. I also agree with @yz2428 that lower grade cards will see more of an increase. It’s already happening anyway.
PSA 10: 30k
PSA 9: 5k
PSA 8: 4k
PSA 7: 2k
I think 10s will eventually go for 40k or even 50k(2x-2.5x) in a few years, while some of the more affordable ones will at the very least quadruple. There’s huge demand for this card, but not very many people can afford it. Most high end collectors already one or several already.
@pkmnflyingmaster You are crazy, Sir. 
I am sure Gary would be happy sell a couple of his babies for $56k.
1 Like
Yeah I posted my reply rather swiftly after this thread had gone up but after some thinking I think I have to adjust my prices for lower graded ones. I think theyll see more of an increase percentage wise than the PSA 10 equivalent.
I actually started writing my post thinking 30k could be optimistic… not sure what happened lol.
But I really do think if there is a sufficient dry period you’ll see 10s hit 50k or higher in less than a year. We saw the same phenomenon with the BGS 10 Charizard and the 1st ed booster box. It’s just a matter of whether or not they will dry up.
I think GO definitely had a large effect on people revisiting their pokemon past, but I think that it was only a small catalyst in the hobby. I think the larger factor is people age 25-35 who are trickling back into the hobby. I believe we have yet to see the full scope of new collectors and the largest spikes will occur within the next 5 years. Pokemon Go was the catalyst for the beginning waves of millennials revisiting the cards that they use to collect when they were kids, but I think the largest waves are yet to come.
I for one did not come back because of Pokemon GO, I’ve never played it. I simply discovered my old cards and wanted to know the value, decided to grade them and now nearly a year later I’ve sunk close to $10k back into the hobby.
As we see millennials graduating college, settling into newer high paying jobs, moving and packing things and discovering their old cards packed away, we are going to see a large increase in collectors.
I think that the Nintendo Switch pokemon title could mimic the pokemon GO craze too, depending on its appeal.
2 Likes
I don’t think PSA 10 will carry as much hype as made out to be; everyone that wants the top card and is willing to pay that kind of money is going to be wanting a BGS 10. The lower grades do have some room for growth for sure; 7 and 8 especially since those who are in it for the sentimental value can reach for those to add it to their collection and take it out of circulation.
Also folks are way overestimating how much spending power Millennials have, especially Millennials themselves.
I don’t fully agree.
With PSA being the grading norm for Pokemon, a PSA 10 copy is considered, in a majority of the community’s eyes, as the “Top Card”. With that being said, the price point should only increase over time for a 10 as it becomes more scarce, since there’s much more PSA collectors than BGS.
Plus with only two BGS 10 copies, how is there enough to go around for everyone who wants a “Gem Mint” copy?.. If they can spend $50K on a BGS 10, and there isn’t any around to buy, they’ll buy the next best thing which is a PSA 10, which will only increase the demand and bring up that price with every copy that appears.
4 Likes
Pretty much disagree with this but I hope others agree so my collection can keep growing;)
Generous gains, yes. But the near doubling that folks here are predicting? I highly, highly doubt that. 20%-30%? I can see that if the number of them posted drops. Doubling? I just can’t see that.
Tell that to the people who paid $10k last year for a 10 lol
I probably look to trends too much for my own good then. Perhaps someone could correlate these hits to price increase jumps.
trends.google.ca/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=charizard%20ebay
trends.google.ca/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=charizard%20psa%2010
Google trends are not going to provide any accurate metric for any collectibles market. It is difficult to extrapolate google trends in general, but they are best for a general overview on a large trend.
With any collectible value, it is pure observation/speculation. Also we are only able to view prices, and never the quantity of participants in the market, average spending power, etc. Those aspects are always an impression, therefore the debate is never ending.
2 Likes