We have no idea. We cannot control or even correctly estimate any of these aspects. Perhaps we hit that ‘bubble’ a very vocal minority keep talking about and prices stay flat. Or the market is still growing steadily which most of us expect. Or some random billionaire drops $10M on a Pokemon buyout next year and leaves everyone speechless. lol
As long as Gary keeps buying them that won’t happen. I mean think about it. If a card ends for a high price we think ok well I didn’t win it but now that guy that was willing to pay that high price has his copy so he won’t try to buy another one generally speaking so you think the next auction you will have a better chance at getting one for cheaper or the price you want to pay. But what if that person wants as many as he can get and is always willing to pay that high price? Well then it’s never going to sell below for what he values it. So if he has the means to always buy every copy that comes up and will always pay that “premium” price then it’s never going to go below it. Only direction is up maybe someone comes along that outbids that premium price well then that guy that’s buying them all has to be prepared to bid higher next time.
One thing the Great Depression of the 1930s and even several recessions since including 2008/9 showed us is that collecting and entertainment are recession proof. When times get that bad, we grasp for what brings us the most happiness…like Charizards lol.
I anticipate the 9 to grow at roughly 1/5th the rate the 10 does, seeing as how there are approximately 5 times as many of them. However the lows will be lower, since more exist and would hit the market in a downturn. Another potential variable, it would seem there are quite a few people unwilling to part with the card no matter the price. Considering where things were 10 years ago, it’ll be really interesting to see where they are in another 10.
A few things to keep in mind about the availability of 9s:
10s were easily available a year ago. My post from last year in this thread mentioned a PWCC block that had 2 10s on auction. Based on what I saw in the Giant Auction Thread, it seems like right now there are more buyers ready at $40k than copies available. The availability of 10s has only really dropped off in the last year. The pop report says there almost 600 9s. Naturally it will take longer for the availability of 9s to drop off like it has for the 10s (if ever).
And while there’s little doubt that there are more 9s than 10s, I can guarantee there isn’t 600. We are talking about what is probably the most regraded card in the hobby. How many unsuccessful attempts to crack a 9 and upgrade it have there been? How many cards have been sent back and forth between PSA and BGS? The past few weeks here I’ve read multiple threads about people looking to cross BGS charizards to PSA. I would be surprised if those Charizards weren’t originally cards crossed over from PSA to BGS. That was the trendy thing to do when everyone was talking about the BGS 10 Zard.