Yea I tried to buy and it immediately jumps once added to cart so it’s not accurate on this pricing of $580
2 Likes
Not for me:
What I do see, however, is that “the Gaming Company” has two separate listings for boxes:
Which is very weird. I’ve never seen that happen before.
Hmmm, wonder if I’m doing something wrong, never bought from TCGplayer. I’d be a buyer at that price
Not sure who this is aimed at but evo boxes at 1k still had a solid ev. Now it’s even better at $600.
1 Like
Just tried to checkout some XY evo boxes and the price changes to 895. I’m pretty sure at 580 the boxes would sell out fairly quickly. I was ready to buy 3 myself as small fish.
1 Like
On what do you base this? I’d love to see the math behind this. Because all of the math I’ve done has suggested precisely the opposite. The vast majority of pack fresh evo holos will get 9s. And after taking into account grading fees, the time value of money, and eBay fees, you’re actually losing money from grading most evo holo 9s.
2 Likes
Man you really hate evolutions! You are talking like 10s don’t exist or ever happen. I’ve graded numerous evo cases and my 10 ratio is easily 50%. At $600 a box that is an unreal ev. Even just a quick ebay search of mixed 9 and 10 evo puts that well above the $600 price point.
2 Likes
Convincing point! In all seriousness: more accurately, I have a hate boner for unsubstantiated claims. It just happens to be that there are a lot of unsubstantiated claims about Evolutions.
Thanks for the anecdote! The PSA pop report suggests that you’ve gotten extremely lucky. Look at the 9:10 ratios. I’ll believe the actual PSA pop report numbers over your anecdote.
This isn’t what I’d consider ‘math.’ And this doesn’t take into account any of the factors I mentioned, namely “grading fees, the time value of money, and eBay fees.”
3 Likes
Check the pop report for evo grades. Majority of the ex cards are over 50% 10. Majority of the full arts are over 50% 10. This is objective data. Then when you go look up the prices for those cards, you get more objective data that is greater than $600 a box.
Oh and you can sell graded commons and uncommons, furthering the value of evolutions ev.
1 Like
yeah evolutions is one of the easiest pokemon boxes to open and make money
For the sake of argument, I’ll concede that you pull $600+ in cards (once graded) per box. When you factor in grading fees ($20 per card), eBay fees + risk (~15%), and the fact that you’re tying up close to $1000 for a year (box cost + grading fees), it’s terrible value. If PSA returned cards instantly, then it would be a different question. And this is all based on the charitable assumption that PSA-graded evo cards will be worth the same a year from now lol.
I’m sure you already realize all of this, but I think it’s important that it’s clarified before someone who’s really inexperienced gets the idea that opening $600+ Evolutions boxes is a way to make money.
3 Likes
@zorloth one thing to remember is that profitability isn’t the main factor that pushes the value of these boxes. The vast majority of people that collect booster boxes don’t do it for short term profit. It’s more so people just collecting, long term investing or opening for fun. At the time $1k definitely seemed reasonable granted how high WOTC sealed product was & still is. At this point if you want to get close to the experience of opening vintage WOTC at a cheap and affordable price Evolutions is now the only option.
1 Like
I realize. But we were specifically talking about EV. We weren’t talking about if the price point might be fair for other reasons (something that I’ve mentioned many times in this thread).
6 Likes
I’m not sure how the 14 month bulk wait time is/was supposed to be factored in into the EV calculations (hint, it can’t be), so I hope everyone sees the risk of looking at current sales data when deciding what to tie your money into for such a long time, relying on the market conditions of the “far” future in terms of flipping. Also for anyone who has old Evo boxes, from what I’ve seen that printing quality was one of the worst I’ve ever experienced. It looks like @smpratte didn’t grade those batches, so make sure you don’t either or again know the risk.
2 Likes
It absolutely can be factored into the calculation. You’re tying up $x for y months (in the Evolutions packs you opened, as well as the grading fees if you’re using a middleman), and that’s a cost. Look up “time value of money.”
1 Like
Yeah what I mean is the price you’ll get in 14 months, I should have specified that. That would obv. literally be predicting the future. Because that would be the expected “realistic” value of the graded cards.
3 Likes
I can’t imagine there’s much, if anything to gain from cracking evolutions boxes, grading and selling the cards. You’re tying up money for a year and selling into a tidal wave of supply that will hit the market. Evolutions pop report has been on a significant uptick since the end of 2020.
Even if the EV is positive right now, you can’t grade the cards in any reasonable time. The market is too dynamic and prices will be different by the time you can sell the cards.
8 Likes
I was going to link you, Jake, but didn’t want to do so without your permission! Brilliant
2 Likes