Do you think SECRET RARE Charizard price will go down??

Market
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Do you think that the Burning Shadows secret rare Charizard prices will go down?

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Yes

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Market saturation negates rarity. With the way pokemon is priniting the latest sets, I believe its price will go down.

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Ive been watching the PSA 10’s over the last month; holy have they gone down A LOT.

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My price target on the card is $150.

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You might be lowballing it, but I definitely don’t see this staying a $500+ card. I’d say in the $250 range perhaps… Which is about what a PSA 10 Evolutions is worth I think.

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I’d predict this to have up to 30% of the eventual Pop of the M Evolutions Zard and price at least double of that card. Other Hyper Rare 10s price below where I thought they’d be. This card’s accessibility & availability is much greater than similarly priced WOTC cards. The market should correct itself. I believe $150 is a healthy & attainable price where I could buy it and reasonable assume that price will hold value. This card has a high supply and competes in some way with all newer zards. All it takes is a few more bad add zards to be printed to yank the market share away and pull that price down. The set is still being printed. There’s too much against the card.

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I agree 100%. All of your points are valid, I guess only time will tell how low this thing can do. I’d love to buy some at $150 per, I probably passed on a few raw 10s in that price range but I didn’t want to end up with $50 9s a couple years from now.

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2 months after Burning Shadows’ release and already there are 89/185 graded gem mint. The value is going to drop in the next few months.

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Most importantly.

Hyper rare Zard just doesn’t look that good.

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That is what I do not understand. And it applies to many of the newer secret rare cards.

You can get Base Set Unlimited cards for the same price or even less than SM series secret rares. Specifically PSA 9 cards in both sets. Dont know about other grades. Only been monitoring PSA 9s.

Seems strange to me.

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I think people are so quick to hold on to the value and scarcity of older cards but fail to understand that new generations of Pokemon fans/collectors are born every day and that for some of these newer collectors, their emotional attachment is going to be to these EXACT hyper rare Charizards and such, and not base set.

The people so quick to dismiss everything that is current are some of those that are undoubtedly going to miss the boat down the road on turning a potentially huge profit. Prices are so low for product right now if you put in the time that you can get any recent card from the last few years with relative ease + on the cheap.

I think it’s time some people adjust their thinking as the market shifts to accommodate newer generation collectors; there’s not going to be an endless supply of base set/WOTC cards and the emotional attachment necessary to fuel that market at this same rate. By the time some collectors can afford them they will be well beyond their reach or they won’t even bother and instead will turn to the cards they actually grew up with (the cards that people are quick to dismiss now).

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Amen.

A lot of these kids could not care less about older WOTC product. @admiral77 Base Unlimited is just as available as some of these newer sets. The PSA 10s have big potential, but I don’t see that much growth when it comes to 9s. Someone recently pointed out that even the 8s and 9s Charizard have been pretty much selling at the same prices over the last few years.

These new cards will be worth something eventually, but in the case of this Charizard you must agree it is quite overpriced. I don’t think it’s dropping to $150, but we will find out soon enough. Every other card I agree with you. I can find PSA 10 Ultra Rares and Secret Rares at $10 each. lol

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I actually really like the art of the FA/SR zard moreso than most of the other GX’s so far. But I just don’t care for the GX border, and strongly dislike the rainbow rare gimmick. If they just had the full art layout with the standard yellow border I think the card would look perfect. Or bring back ex-era holo borders pls nintendo.

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This card will hit $120 in few months. There are so much boxes and blisters out there…

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The regular ultra rare Charizard GX looks a lot better imo.

My favourite FA Hyper Rare cards so far have been Umbreon and Espeon tbh. I mentioned in a different thread but the art style of hyper rares lends itself better to simpler, less expressive designs.

I prefer my Charizards looking aggressive and visceral.

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This won’t happen for years though, if it happens at all.

I also wouldn’t assume that there’s the same attachment with HR Zard like there is a WotC Charizard. You can draw parallels with Plasma blast Zard but it’s an older card with a lower print run, less product opened and it looks phenomenal.

I’d also wouldn’t be as quick to say that there’s children aged 7-13 who will be in 15 year’s time buying cards released today how we buy WotC product and cards now… but we will be seeing WotC cards in the 6-figures… assuming China doesn’t invade and the west loses WW3.

We need to look at the scarcity of the cards, the fact that when People were exposed to Pokemon there wasn’t the multitude of IP and brands competing for the same spotlight and the fact that Nintendo’s market share in digital media while strong, is dwindling and will continue to dwindle if they don’t fully embrace multi-platform distribution. You can argue Pokemon Go already did this but there were more adults playing than children.

Pokemon was in the right place at the right time and there will never be another time like it.
Then you have to look at whether or not TCGs will be as popular as they are now amongst the age group who’s only just being exposed to them. There was no Steam, iOS or Android store when we were first exposed to Pokemon and even to a lesser extent Yu-Gi-Oh!. I’d include MtG but MtG’s playerbase is much older and Hearthstone (and it’s clones with different IP) is basically the MtG of the 2010s.

These IPs wouldn’t be nearly as popular if they were released in 2017.

I really think that new IPs with physical collectables trying to break into the market in the next few years are going to suffer in their long-term value because everything is mass-produced and people’s attention (including children and young teenagers)is split in so many different ways.

I understand the point you’re coming from but I’d expect Ex Dragons secret rare Charizard or even FireRed & LeafGreen Charizard Ex to do anything significant before the hyper rare Zard. There’s no point to aggressively buy these now.

If the Pokemon company were to come out tomorrow with the decision to port FireRed/LeafGreen or even the HGSS games onto iOS and Android then I’d be agreeing with you 100% because then they would have put their games where the impressionable children are actually playing them and being exposed to IP.

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Here’s what I think:

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Im not overly concerned with growth. I am a collector, not an investor. I just wanted to purchase cards I like, are in reasonably good condition, and wont brake the bank. Hence the PSA 9 over 10.

But that aside, how could there be more WOTC product than Sun and Moon?? Sun and Moon has massive print runs and WOTC product is 20 years old. That is 20 years of cards being played with, destroyed, thrown out.

That doesnt make sense…

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@admiral77

Just alone unlimited Base set was printed to oblivion when WOTC realized 1st ed. / shadowless boxes won’t satisfy the demand + most of the sets have 1st ed. and unlimited versions compared to english Sun&Moon sets, twice the labour.