I was surprised to see that the value of Charizard GX in ungraded mint condition is now higher than $100. With prices of PSA 9 at $170, and 10s at 450+, will the prices hold? Or will the value drop since this set is printed so much? What prevents this card from becoming the new Mega Charizard EX full art? Thanks
Gonna drop like a bag of rocks. There’s something like 40 PSA 10 copies already and people are just trying to flip them as fast as they can grade them. To put it into perspective there’s only 90 copies of the Flashfire M zard x and the set has been out for 4 years already, as opposeed to Burning Shadows being barely a month old.
I know the cards may have a slightly different level of demand but I estimate they have roughly the same appeal, and the Flashfire zard psa 10 only sells for $400 atm.
I don’t think it’ll tank the way the Evolutions full art did but I think you’d have to be crazy to buy these graded copies on ebay right now.
Edit: Also, you could either buy this zard right now or you can buy a 1st Ed Fossil Dragonite and still have money left over to treat yourself to a nice steak dinner.
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As long as the set remains being printed, the pricing will not be stable/accurate. It will probably remain a popular card during this cycle but that doesn’t mean it will command that price.
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honestly, you can’t say it will stay stable, but you can’t say that the demand isn’t massive. it is selling multiple times a day over and over at these prices
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The people that said it was overpriced at $65 probably still think it’s overpriced at $115+, but it definitely seems like it’s still trending upward…
My opinion is it will hold some value if they don’t reprint a card that is similar looks. The pull ratio is low, Derium opened 1000 packs and only got one. I believe when Shining legends is out that most are not going to bother with burning shadows. Opening Burning Shadows booster boxes are not worth it in terms of money or chance to get one. If you’re a collector, the only viable option is to purchase one. Most people who actually pull one are keeping it for themselves. That means generally a low supply for sale Plus Evolutions was fun and hade greats. burning shadows hasn’t got that nostalgia effect. Just my thoughts. Only the future will tell.
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I would echo some of the points above about the pull rate. It will be a definitely pattern than the M FA zard. For new sets, HR Charizard is our only hope. 
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This is a good example of the point I’ve tried to make a few times now with modern Ultra Rares. The increase in the number of Ultra Rares per set helps the value of specific cards because the number of packs needed to pull a specific UR gets increasingly high.
A lot of times, people get caught up in the number of Pokemon cards printed. But the number of commons and uncommons floating around doesn’t matter. They can print 10x as many cards overall as a set in the late 2000s and not hurt the value on cards like these so long as the relative rarity is adjusted accordingly.
It’s also worth noting that the number of people collecting just modern cards right now is probably higher than the number of people collecting Pokemon cards period during the Great Pokemon Recession (2006-2009). Modern cards have a ton of demand and for some singles, that demand exceeds the supply.
I expect this card will have the same patterns we see with a lot of stuff, but I’d be shocked if it didn’t also earn a premium in the long run. If you’ve held a few of these, you know that they look better in person than it seemed beforehand. And I’m saying that as someone who has in writing my skepticism toward the card. But it’s a great card and it would take a significant event to tank the value. Comparing this to cards with 5-10x the pull rate won’t cut it as valuable analysis.
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I’ve been really wanting this card, but just can’t justify the price. The booster boxes now and I’m going to have to buy it at some point, but the question is when is a good entry point.
Bought two of these at their “lowest point” on eBay for $60 each, sent both in to PSA, both graded 10s…
I ended up listing one of them on eBay for $800 OBO since that seemed to be the trend and I took a $675 offer (only because there was another card I needed to buy that was being sold at the time and I needed the cash right then and there). I do think this card is a largely “safe” bet to increase in value as it’s got all the hallmarks of a great card…it’s a Charizard, the artwork is great even if it’s just a variant of the normal FA (looks amazing with the Rainbow effect/print), the pull rate is rather low and grading a 10 still isn’t as easy as it seems…
Yes, the PSA 10 pop for this card is already tremendously high (POP 61 (!) w/ a 47% PSA 10 rate) but all that tells us is how popular this card is and how great the demand to get it graded and to own it graded is.
I’d say at the end of the day, to jump on what churlocker was saying, the demand for this card in PSA 10 will far outstrip the supply, so it will age + rise in value rather gracefully; there’s so many rainbow rares out there in the SM sets to collect that regardless of how much product is seemingly being printed there’s plenty of rainbows that are still going to be exceedingly rare to pull + grade a 10, and this is one of those cards.
Definitely will be holding on to my second copy for the long haul to see how high this baby can go. 
Not sure there’s going to be a low point anytime soon…best bet is to hunt for and pay a premium for an ungraded single on eBay/IG that looks good enough to be a 10 and then pray PSA is on your side…
I looked at pretty much every copy on ebay right now. God the quality is bad. Terrible back centering and whitening on 95% of them.
Yeah, i’m not surprised…pretty much anyone who is pulling this card, whether they’ve sent in 1,000+ or 0 cards to PSA before, is sending this card in to get graded…everyone is cognizant of its value and what PSA 9/10 copies are going for right now…this card is a tremendous boost to the hobby probably in ways that a lot of us are not directly seeing right now.
I would still stay on top of listings and such, you’ll come across something good enough eventually…but it’s still going to likely cost a couple/few hundred bucks ungraded.
I pulled a secret rare Escape Rope earlier in the month and the entire back of the card had whitening/chipping all over the four sides. I’ve never seen something like this, the card was beyond played and nearly ruined imo. Shockingly it still sold for $10 dollars a week or two ago and didn’t deter anyone from paying a dollar or two under what a NM copy would go for.
Are cards like this really getting 10s…? Look at that back centering.
www.ebay.com/itm/PSA-10-Charizard-GX-150-147-Hyper-Rare-Burning-Shadows-GEM-MINT/282669591632
I picked up a minimum 9 copy today, at probably higher than I should pay but oh well…
The centering is within PSA’s GEM MINT 10 Specification of 25/75 being the limit for the back centering.
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These pixel measurements would be inaccurate though, right? Due to the angle the picture was taken at.
Exactly. It looks a lot worse than that to me. But whatever I’m not the one paying $200+ for that card lol
The back-centering is not even a problem (looks like it meets PSA’s 75/25 guideline)…that inner-border front-centering is pretty atrocious though (at least to me and my OCD).
As someone who owns every released rainbow rare card in PSA 10 (minus the early-released Shining Legends four and Gardevoir and Tapu Bulu from Burning Shadows, which all will be on their way to PSA next week), it’s pretty clear that PSA seems to have decided to give a ton of leeway to that inner-border centering, period…they don’t seem to believe it detracts from the appeal of the card, which, i’ll admit, is somewhat true…although the front-centering as bad as the Charizard you linked crosses a line for me and imo shouldn’t get a 10.
However, with these rainbow rare artworks the characters exceed that aforementioned inner-border and usually goes to the edge of the card itself, which might be the reason why PSA doesn’t much care for the front-centering on these cards as much as we do…it’s a very minimal detail and the focus remains largely on the Pokemon as well as the intricacy of the rainbow holo/print itself (which is unique for every single rainbow rare card) and the way the card looks when held from various angles/lighting conditions.
Don’t focus so much on the centering when buying rainbow rare cards, just get as mint of a back as possible (no/extremely minimal knicks/whitening), obviously don’t have any holo scratches, send it in and there’s a good chance for a 10…the problem is, of course, finding one that doesn’t have both terrible front centering AND whitening on the reverse that exceeds what PSA’s graders deem is 10-worthy.
Doesn’t matter, the ratio stays the same.
If you want to check out the geogebra I used to make this:
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