While I appreciate his efforts, when you start doing these analyzes seriously, you should realize that you have to do it for all cards. Holo cards can account for less than a third of the value of a box (it varies greatly from a set to another). In that case, giving an eyeball approximation for 2/3 of the value of the box (the “bulk”) renders the whole analysis worthless. Furthermore, while I appreciate the efforts of using PSA population data, it is well known that PSA 9 cards are heavily resubmitted, so this data is greatly inaccurate. Finally, a consideration should be given for the cost of grading cards. This cost is extremely impactful on the value of a box. For instance, per my analysis, the expected value of a Base Set Unlimited box is currently around $8,892 and would be $13,896 with no grading cost (averaged to $35 per card worth being graded).
To follow-up on my previous message : I decided to step up my game and model using the actual PSA grading costs. This should have been done from the beginning.
I am very pleased to report that an average $35 grading cost per card appeared to be an overestimation. This change brings the current expected value of Jungle from $20,340 to $24,552. I didn’t run the update for the other sets yet.
The last remaining approximation in my models is the PSA population probability. Other than that and stale data points, the models are perfectly accurate.
I urge people not to settle for less than perfect models to support the purchase of booster packs with the intent of opening them.
Can you plz do for Genesis?
I hear ZandG makes up half his data for that website. Garbage.
I’ve had some private offers on cards that you had to estimate prices for due to lack of sales, and your estimates are generally pretty accurate.
Understand that modelling can be pinpoint accurate for sets that are liquid enough (Base Set, Jungle, Fossil and Team Rocket), but approximations have to be done otherwise. Neo sets are very illiquid. Looking at completed auctions, I feel like it’s a combination of both low supply and low demand.
I estimate that a Neo Genesis box, for holo’s only, is worth about $13,212. I roughly estimate the expected value of the box to be between $22,000 and $26,000. I use 10%/60%/30% for PSA 10/9/8 for holo’s and lots and lots of estimations.
Neo Genesis has exceptional holo’s, but everything else pulls it back. The non-holo rares are extraordinarily weak. The bulk cards are generally weaker than earlier sets and it has energy cards. People are so focused on holo cards, but most of the value of the boxes is derived from the bulk.
That said, there is an argument to be made that bulk cards probably won’t appreciate as quickly as holo cards.
So your calcs have Jungle and Genesis as roughly the same EV? Interesting
Correct.
Jungle / Neo Genesis
Holo : 550 / 1101
Rare : 75 / 30-39
Uncommon : 40 / 25-32
Common : 47 / 25-32
Energy : - / 10-18
Jungle : 12*550+24*75+108*40+252*47 = $24,564
Neo Genesis (lower) : 12*1101+24*30+108*25+216*25+36*10 = $22,392
Neo Genesis (upper) : 12*1101+24*39+108*32+216*32+36*18 = $25,164
Again, Jungle is rigorously modelled. The only approximation is the PSA population distribution. There is no value estimation (or nearly none). For Neo Genesis, I used a lot of approximations and estimated the value of a lot of cards (for certain grades) and not just out of necessity. The lower estimate is very conservative and likely too low. The upper estimate is what I would consider realistic. It is not impossible for the expected value to slightly exceed the upper estimate. In short, we can say that the expected value of Neo Genesis is close to $25,000.
If you have some time for yourself, it would be great to study how different types of card appreciate over time. I’d be mostly interested in knowing how faster common vs rare vs iconic cards appreciate over time. If rare and iconic (e.g. Lugia?) cards appreciate faster than common cards, then maybe we can make the argument that Neo Genesis will appreciate faster than Jungle.
I understand the reasoning behind what you’re saying
But let’s be real, the value is in the holos and that’s what people carz about and submit.
This ain’t base 1st and yes people are submitting more commons and uncommons for genesis but still it’s still insignificant
Also there’s something called demand.
It’s quality not quantity.
Especially with genesis!
Again I understand that you’re including this but it won’t matter.
People keep light packs closed for a reason vs heavies
People still believe you own cases of neo genesis lolll
Demand and supply for graded bulk cards is lower than for holo’s, but they’re selling relatively well and account for most of the value of most boxes… Let me illustrate… Take for example Jungle 1st Edition Weepinbell :
PSA 10 (Apr 11th) : $104.16
PSA 9 (Apr 11th) : $55
These are auctions, not BIN’s that a crazy person bought and there are other auctions that ended in March for over $100 (PSA 10). I see no completed listing that didn’t find a buyer. They’re available for BIN at $129.99 and $64.99, respectively. That tells me that demand and supply is low, but it’s there…
I approximate the value to : 0.15*(104.16-20)+0.6*(55-20) = $33.62.
There’s 384 non-holo’s in a box and 12 holo’s. If you pull 384 cards worth a Weepinbell, that’s $12,910.08. In comparison, holo’s account for about $6,600 of the box’ value.
One thing is that you have to be cautious of submitting only cards that will return as PSA 10 or 9. There may be a loss for some cards that return as a 8 or lower.
You say that bulk cards “won’t matter”. Right now or in the future? Right now, I see that a graded pack fresh Weepinbell is worth about $33.62 and, so, a box worth of Weepinbell’s is worth $12,910.08. Don’t you agree? In the future, maybe? I’m also concerned that people will loose interest in bulk cards and consolidate around iconic cards or that iconic cards appreciate faster. That needs to be studied.
By the way, I did a quick analysis yesterday of the appreciation rate of sealed products against iconic singles. I didn’t save the numbers, but what I found is that, when comparing a high grade Alpha Black Lotus against a sealed Alpha starter deck or a high grade 1986 Fleer Jordan Rookie against a 1986 Fleer 36-pack box, the sealed product appreciated a lot more in a 10-15 years period. I didn’t save the numbers, but it was 50-100% more. Nothing surprising here, but it’s good to verify and quantify it.
Well for now the numbers you’ve ballparked statistically are probably correct.
But you just said that “peopl will lose interest in bulk and consolidate around iconic cards…”
That’s exactly what I mean and what will happen. Nobody is ever gonna pay 1k for a freagin weepinbell for example.
Holos can have a more and longer growth period towards the future.
Has alway been like and will always be like that.
It’s an interesting calculations that you’ve made tho.
I wouldn’t invest in commons and uncommons nor would I advice.
Ha ! There was a relatively large auction of PSA 10 Magic : The Gathering cards that happened in February and featured common and uncommon cards. These cards fetched anywhere between $500 and $2,500. Again, they are commons and uncommons, not rares. Plague Rats at $776.09… It’s a card that every player has had in his pile of cards in multiples. You see the same with lands (the equivalent to energy cards), they’re selling like hot cakes for high valuations.
I wouldn’t underestimate Weepinbell in the long run, you gotta catch em’ all, but you are certainly correct that it won’t appreciate like a Snorlax or a Vaporeon.
$30-$40k id say is the range a buyer would pay and a seller may sell!
Beautiful box and would be the only box id ever consider buying!
Well it is my fav set with my fav pokemon and artwork so makes sense hahahaha
But ye should be 30-40k!
Are you unironically comparing PSA 10 Alpha commons with 1st Ed. Jungle commons? If so, LOL
Alpha is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000x rarer than 1st Ed. Jungle. Easily the most absurd comparison I’ve ever seen someone make, and I’ve seen some damn absurd comparisons. No one has piles of mint Alpha Plague Rats. Revised Plague Rats? Of course. Hell, I have piles of mint Revised Plague Rats lol. Alpha is a whole different beast. Commons from Alpha are rarer than literally any Pokemon set card ever produced (1st Ed. Base holos and gold stars included). There are fewer of that Plague Rat in existence than there are Rayquaza gold stars, let alone some random Jungle uncommon…
Dunno about this - a quick google search estimates 16000 of each alpha common, I wouldn’t be so quick to say there were more 1st ed Base Set holos printed than that.