I want to remain optimistic, especially with the fact that the Tokyo Olympics are still a “go”… However, I am starting to agree to the rest of the speculation, in that any largescale event – especially those where it revolves around an international population – will be cancelled due to the fact that those events will then be a hotspot to bring that virus across the globe more quickly.
I’ve been following the topic closely as I’ve been interested in all the confused information as well as normalcy/overreaction biases coming into play. For most, it either seems to be “just the flu”, or, the end of the world.
Try to be aware of yourself and check your information - if you’re on either extreme, you’re probably experiencing some form of normalcy bias. It’s a well-known way that our brains respond to stress. This is neither the flu nor the end of the world.
This map does a good job conveying the speed at which this will catch. You can see how the infection picks up speed in China over the last two months, as well as when it slowed down. They implemented some serious quarantine measures for over a month now, and it did seem to have an effect.
In many countries and globally as a whole we’re following the beginning trend of China’s infection with a delay of *about* one month. In rough numbers, that means probably a month from now, we will be at at least 100k cases of infection globally. Based on the low testing rates compared to China and South Korea, I’m guessing we’re going to be at that point much sooner and won’t realize it.
That puts us at likely early to mid April when the rest of the world realizes “oof, this ain’t just the flu,” and we see what China has been going through as our hospitals start to hit some serious load. Because I don’t think people as a whole realize what the actual concern is here, the issue is not risk of death (although in my book 2-3.5% is pretty high for a highly-infectious disease,) but that the health system simply isn’t set up to handle the sudden surge. And as availability of care drops, quality of care drops, and mortality rates increase.
Anyway, panic is dumb, but so is downplaying. Assess the risk level from the data available. This isn’t the flu, and it’s also not the apocalypse. Prepare accordingly, don’t go out and buy a goddamned mountain of toilet paper, you don’t need it.
Anyway, April (when it will be a major event, I’m guessing,) is four months from August. Right now I think you could probably flip a coin, but I would bet that it will be canceled.
edit: Adding an example WHO report on the virus, where they make some comparisons to Influenza.
Wonder if it does get cancelled if 2021 will carry on with London, or be a new location? Hopefully this can all blow over by then and everything can go ahead as planned with no risk, but it doesn’t look great.
I think there is a for sure chance it could be cancelled. They are taking this very seriously and the Pokemon Company are the type for such safety above all else. Especially for a younger crowd.
The Mississippi Anime Festival went off without a hitch today. It was packed with people from all over the country. All the celeb signers that we’re scheduled showed up (thank God).
Next week our VEGAS ToyCon which has 50 celebs signed up is unaffected by it too. 2 guys cancelled but long before the panic of this virus.
Hopefully the warmer weather will help.
everyone, please go read more articles and reliable scholarship on the virus before making hasty judgments and sharing them with others across the internet on whether this is bad or not. this is what contributes to the general lack of clarity and fear-building/misinformation at present. i don’t think the future is as rosy as you think, given the fact that most people act as “experts” based on a few light readings without understanding all the facts out there. i’ve done some research on pandemic scenarios from an urban planning stand point. people and most of our institutional structures are not equipped to deal with pandemics. our medical systems will simply be overwhelmed. with Our honorable president as our president, i don’t really trust our track record in the US. prevention is important.
It works both ways though. You don’t want to exaggerate the possible negative outcomes either. It just induces unwarranted fears. Not only was I Biological chemistry major who worked with a professor who was involved in similar stuff, but I’ve also lived through situations like this. I’m no expert for sure, but I’m no novice either.
Take Italy. There’s been 190+ deaths and the average age of those who died is 81 years old. All our deaths have been older people and most with underlying health problems. No children have died at all.
Of course we realize all flus affect the elderly most anyway.
Simply keep your hands washed. Stay away from touching faces. If you get a fever or respiratory problem call your doctor or get to the doctor.
Also of note, Indian Wells (one of the largest tennis tournaments in the world) in California was cancelled yesterday, just one day prior to the official start of the tournament (should have been today).
Probably the 5th largest tennis event of the ATP tour right behind the 4 majors.
My parents wanted a scientist and paid for everything (UCLA) so I felt obligated. Turned out it wasn’t my calling (I hated it;) so I went into retail.
You’ll find out that the longer you live the more experiences you’ll pile up and the more stories you’ll have to tell;)
Nah I like Klopp though. I don’t keep up with the epl. I used to watch it religiously 10 years ago, mostly Chelsea and Arsenal, they always like to walk it in