I know that this wasn’t in response to anything I said, but I’m just replying to this to clarify my earlier comments: when I refer to the extremely elusive early EX holos, these items and the ones that QWA have posted are not them. None of the cards mentioned here (and only 2 out of the 100s of cards in QWA’s photos) are the low-pull rate holos. Again, I know that you didn’t claim they were – I’m just clarifying this as it relates to my original comments.
So to elaborate on my original comments: when I’m talking about gem mint holos that are in particularly low supply and that have particularly strong fundamentals, I’m referring exclusively to Ruby holos and non-theme deck holos from Sandstorm/Dragon. The supply of these are significantly lower than the holos from any of the later sets.
Again, not saying any of this to argue against what you or anyone else has stated. Just trying to clarify the scope of my original comments.
Sorry to triple reiterate my point but here is a buy thread of mine from 2019 offering $10 per mint raw ex holo and I picked up plenty. Heck I still have that Arceus lv x psa 9 that was $19. I can’t stress enough how new the “grade everything” phenomenon is in Pokémon. www.elitefourum.com/t/buying-holos-and-ultra-rares-from-ex-and-diamond-pearl-era/24222/1
You didn’t claim this, but I just want to note that these meteoric price rises weren’t exclusive to the EX Series. WotC holos were also extremely inexpensive up until relatively recently. Most 1st Ed Jungle/Fossil/Gym/Neo PSA 9 holos were barely worth more than the cost of grading until a year or so ago.
A combination of the cards being not worth grading until recently, difficult to grade, low printed sets.
I have been buying these cards slowly but consistently for the past few years and have been shocked how many “NM” cards I receive that have had massive creases or some other form of crazy damage. Anecdotal information but this is what I have experienced personally, mostly buying the earliest ex sets since those are my favorite.
Lots of truth in this thread. I primarily see this as a combination of two factors which have already been mentioned here but perhaps not connected in the same way.
First and foremost is that EX Holos were in no way worth grading until mid 2020. These were $5 cards raw max unless you were talking about Charizards. To add to PFM’s post, I paid $18 for a PSA 10 Delta Species Latios (January 2019), $24.50 for a PSA 10 Delta Species Salamence (March 2019), $40 for a PSA 10 Emerald Kyogre (April 2020), you get the point. Pack fresh card quality doesn’t really matter if you’re barely breaking even on a PSA 10. I had a lot of pack fresh EX Holos which just sat in binders for years because it just wasn’t worth it to grade even if I did get lucky with 10s. I submitted most of them in May 2020 to PSA and just recently got them back. My returns were quite strong with most getting 9s and 10s.
EX pack fresh card quality is not ideal, but not horrible either. My rate with pack fresh EX era has been about 30% achieving PSA 10, some sets higher, some sets lower. It’s not impossible to get 10s, but it’s not easy. If 10s were break even, 9s were even worse. Why would anyone submit their EX holo collection for grading if the majority were going to lose them money? The only people who did were the ones who were really into the cards or who wanted them for sets.
Sure, some issues around lower pull rates in the E-Series sets might be contributing to it a bit, but when you combine the fact that PSA 10s were basically worthless until mid 2020 and the fact that pack fresh card condition made getting those near worthless 10s difficult, nobody had any real incentive to grade these cards. Thus, low populations. It would not surprise me to see these pops grow significantly, especially in the 8-9 range but definitely 10s as well, in the near-mid future.
I understand. I just meant to highlight that EX hasn’t experienced uniquely large price increases. Prices have increased by five to tenfold+ across basically all of English WotC/EX. The incentive to grade both WotC/EX has increased dramatically over the course of the past 1.5 years.
I love ex holos but the demand is not the same as WOTC. I mean this in the nicest way possible, but if a handful of the most prolific posters on ex threads drove together in a minivan to an ex-era convention and got in a fatal car accident on the way there, the entire market prices for certain ex-era cards would have to adjust accordingly.
I know quite a few people who are collecting these now. I don’t think the market for these is as fragile/small as some think and will likely continue to go up as more people enter the ex era. Yes quite a few of these are at PSA now and pops should increase faster than they would for ex or gold stars. At the same time, I expect most of these to continue to go up in price over the next few years as demand will outstrip supply for gem copies. Some sets of holos/reverses are very hard to grade and have very poor 10/9 ratios.
Yeah I went from winning PSA 10 Holo auctions easily in mid-late 2020 to getting absolutely blown out these days. I know it can’t all be Zorloth lmao
I think people took notice when some of the leading cards started cracking the 4 figure mark at auction. These are pack holos/reverses, not EX cards mind you. there are ~40 or so holos/reverse holos that are at or approaching that price point ($750) so I think people are seeing that + low pops and opening up their wallets. Plus its a little more exciting that buying your 20th Rocket holo off PWCC or whatever, at least it is in my opinion.
The question for me isn’t “Why are pops low?” bur rather “what can we expect out of the pops in the next 5 years?”. Am I regularly going to be able to buy cards from the PWCC blocks in 2023 that were pop 0-3 in 2021? I sure hope so, I just don’t know. I really hope my chances of finding certain rare reverse holos isn’t reliant on spiking a mint copy off ebay because those odds seem slim. I’m just happy to find a gem mint candidate of EX Legend Maker Wurmple reverse holo these days.
I know there are some obsessed people like me on ebay every day trying to squeeze 10s out of thin air - in part because that might be the only way I get some of the cards on my list - but it is pretty slow going. I’ve sent about 200 Holos and Revs from the EX era to PSA over the past 12 months, but the vast majority of cards i see/buy are not worth grading imo. I know others on here are sending in their stashes like I am, but those cards are coming out of the closets of committed collectors rather than every other guy cashing out on Mercari.
EX Series holos have gone insane while exs have mostly stagnated. I’ve been buying basically zero PSA 10 holos these days – auctions always seem to end at double or triple my maximum bid. I’ve been working on ex 10s since those seem to have stabilized and have had slower pop growth than the holos.
I think that FourthStarTCG/PFM/QWA are correct when they say that the PSA 10 pop reports for EX Series holos have a long way to go. Or at least I feel that way about most holos. I’m just not so sure cards like RS Sceptile are going to be exploding in population any time soon. 20 copies of it have been added to the pop report over the past year, and a grand total of zero of those were 10s. I think some people are underestimating how difficult it is to find truly gem mint copies of these things. But, overall, I agree with what they’ve noted – that most of these holos simply weren’t worth grading until last year.
Another factor is that many collectors who may have been priced out of near-mint or PSA 9/10 ex cards (which saw a substantial rise in price last year) probably decided to purchase the regular holos and reverse holos instead to fill their collections. This might explain the recent rise in prices for these cards. Either way, I would expect this increased value and demand to drive up their pops over the next few years.
I’m about 90% sure I know the grades for these two pics, since one of my June PSA orders with Ludkins is marked as shipped, and the cards pictured here all show up in the pop report at pokemetrics as having had a copy added to the PSA pop report in the past week, which normally wouldn’t be nearly enough data, but most other holos in these sets did not have a single graded copy in the past week, so for these all to have been added but not be mine would be statistically unlikely. Could be totally wrong though lol.
Aggron RS RH - 9
Sableye SS RH - 9
Cacturne SS RH - 9
Nosepass SS RH - 9
Torkoal SS RH - 8
TA Manectric TATM RH - 9
Machamp HL - 9 or 10 (two graded, one is presumably mine)
Banette HL - 9
Shedinja DX- 8 or 9 (two graded, one is presumably mine)
Deoxys DX - 7
Golem DR - 10
Armaldo SS - 3 or 4 (bleh not sure what happened, two graded, one is presumably mine)
Rayquaza EM - 9
Mawile SS - 9
9s on the reverses is disappointing… had hoped for at least one or two 10s.
