Hey All, I decide to share some info on how to check if the Base Set 1st edition Holos are overpriced or underpriced based on the Unlimited Set price movement.

Everyone has a feeling some cards are undervalued or overvalued, but how much over, or how much under? what is the reasonable price range for the cards?

Here I demonstrate a method to determine the reasonable price range for the base set 1st edition holos based on the price movement of the unlimited versions. This method can be extended to fossil , rocket, jungle, you name it, it just works.

In general, this is a way to determine the Low-Frequency Prices by using the High-Frequency sales.

Step 1: Normalize the price for both 1st edition and unlimited. There are different ways to normalize the data, you can pick the min-max scaler, or try turning the data into normal distribution, different ways will provide different results, I can write a whole page on this, DM me if you want more details.

Step 2: Calculate the 2-sigma bound for the unlimited price. Similar to stocks, theoretically, 95% data should be within the bound, but in practice, I only found around 87%-92% within the bound.

Step 3: Once we get the upper bound and lower bound, apply the same bound to the 1st Edition Prices, reverse calculate the possible upper and lower price range for the 1st edition.

Conclusion: Now we can get a reasonable short term price range for the 1st edition cards. I backtested this method, on average over 75% hit the target.

Examples 1: (Base Set Unlimited Blastoise PSA 8 to determine 1st Edition PSA 8 price)

The Blue and Black Lines are the 2-sigma bounds, The red line is the 1st edition price, blue line is the unlimited price, redline’s movement is guided by the 2 bounds.

Blastoise: Based on the data from 2022-May. The final price prediction for early June would be: Upper Bound: $2235, Lower Bound: $1320 with a 74.55% chance within this range.

Examples 2: (Base Set Unlimited Charizard PSA 8 to determine 1st Edition PSA 8 price)

Examples 3: (Fossil Unlimited Moltres PSA 9 to determine 1st Edition PSA 9 price)

Moltres: Based on the data from 2022-May. The final price prediction for early June would be: Upper Bound: $307, Lower Bound: $183 with a 70.67.% chance within this range.

Any questions or suggestions to this method are greatly welcomed. You can also DM me for more details. Thanks.