docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hb86EOfVkI7UAOHiuzhpKr4wxyNg3MOtaIfOdW9cqHY/edit?usp=sharing
Here it is. Feel free to change any of the variables to your liking. But try not to mess with the avg value of the cards that I put in. I got those numbers from taking the avg of the value of all ebay sales on the PSA site.
Edit: whoever added the extra part at the bottom for normal commons/uncommons and rares you’re awesome!
I wanna hear what @masonkampe has to say about this. I think there are a couple others into BS2 as well.
*following*
Base II is on my to-do list =)
You need to take grading fees into account being as you are quoting the prices of graded cards not raw.
Ya I did that but I didn’t put a variable in there for the price per card. I just subtracted like 10 from each value mentally.
Awesome idea and thanks for the effort! Would love to see these in more boxes !
You have to realize though how hard it is to even get a nine. I had a submission, opened a whole box, sent in the 13 Holos, 3 came back PSA 9, the other 9 came back PSA 8. Zero 10s.
Ouch… That’s Rough!!!
So it seems like if you get a PSA 10 Charizard you win, otherwise you loose.
Great analysis. Base set 2 box is not an attractive option to open haha.
I got a pack fresh Charizard from a base set 2 box too and it got a 9. Even if you get lucky and pull a Charizard to get a 10 is not a easy feat, I think it makes more investment and collection sense to just snipe base set 2 psa 10 auctions if you really want base set 2!
I think you win with any Charizard PSA 10 in either Base, Base 2 or LC.
In more ways than one it’s sad to see sets being valued on the fact they do or do not contain a Charizard.
Maybe not to open, but to keep I think it is. As soon as Shadowless is out of reach, financially, for people they going to look for the next best thing. Unlimited already has seen a price increase and some are just after the nostalgia card art. At some point Base II will get the 200% price boost because everybody moving into it. When this moment is, I don’t know. It can take a few years, but I think it will happen.
Yeah, the pack fresh cards for me were definitely rough. I opened 58 packs of Base 2, both charizards I pulled got 8s. I’ve wanted to try and pull the 10s myself from this set but it’s as risky as people have stated here. I might give 1 more box a try in my lifetime but I don’t expect to profit.
It’s hard to use the word most without proof, but it is not a long stretch of the imagination to say most base 2 cards come out of the packs as 8’s. Base 2 has some of the most/heaviest print lines that I know of. I opened a box recently and every holo had/has strong print lines. I did send them all in though, I kind of wanted to do a little test of my own.
Did you place the chance of a 10 at 25% or .25%? It would take a lot more factual data but I feel like it would be more in line with psa 10 - 5% , psa 9 40-45% psa 8 at least 50%.
That is going off my own experience and talking to others who have opened boxes and submitted all their cards. 7’s aren’t unheard of either. Anyway I understand that my own experience is and others may differ from yours.
As for the prices, I would say they are fairly off for a lot of the cards.
This is a great idea though.
Pretty much every booster box is -EV at this point, but I have to admit I’d be tempted to take a gamble on Base 2 considering it’s stupid low priced.
I agree the problem with the OP is assuming you’ll be getting 25% 10s and 75% 9s which is very inaccurate, especially for this set. These would sell way higher than $800 if you were to average 4 PSA 10 holos per box.
To give a little perspective on price, and I rarely share this kind of information, but I buy every single psa 9 holo from base 2 that is listed for sale at 20 or under. I bought a bunch right a way at about 20 each and now I rarely see them for that price.
Every auction no matter what it is I at least bid it to 20 dollars. I haven’t noticed much that has went for under 20 unless it was a buy it now I missed, and I check often.
As for the psa 10 prices, I would pay 150 for a hitmonchan or pidgeot in psa 10, and I doubt I am the only one.
I check the base II pop report frequently, and I have barely seen any movement in the 10’s. Maybe a poliwrath/ninetales here and there.
A lot of the cards don’t get a price realization in PSA 10 because they don’t get listed that often, and I understand that. Most of my 10’s have been bought off of eBay so far.
If you think the prices of the cards, or the weight on the percent chance of a certain grade is incorrect you can adjust that to see what the new EV would be. The reason I made the excel sheet was so that people could mess around with the numbers to see the worst case and best case scenarios. I just put in 75% psa 9 and 25% psa 10 as a sample. Also the reason I didn’t include psa 8 values is because those, as of right now, wouldn’t make you more than a couple bucks if graded and then sold. Also the prices I put in the spreadsheet are averages from all the auction data on PSA’s own website so that should be as accurate as you’re going to get. Because they are average prices they are also more conservative then I could have made them. Instead of just taking the higher recent prices into account I just averaged everything, even from the start of 2017-end of 2016.
Oh and the reason I have a lot of the psa 9s at 10 dollars is that I’m listing the expected profit from grading and selling on ebay, not the inherent value of the graded card itself.
Is there any particular box that you want me to do next?
I think the 1st ed. Neo boxes would be cool considering they are pretty popular and there’s such a big difference in value between the 9’s & 10’s of those sets. Seeing the likelihood of grading 10’s out the box would be interesting as well.
ok cool, I’ll try one of those. I’ll have to do some research on the pull rates and some other things. Hopefully that information is available somewhere.
I understand how and why you did everything, and I appreciate the effort, but it just isn’t accurate.
If someone was trying to find the value of a 1st base charizard in psa 10, and they went to psa’s price history there would be sales for 9-10k towards the end of 2016. Maybe the average of the last month would be best.
Anyway, like I said, I like this idea and I Think it could be very useful if done right. It reminds me of what is done in the mtg community.