Kampes_Cards:
chiznuggets:
If you think the prices of the cards, or the weight on the percent chance of a certain grade is incorrect you can adjust that to see what the new EV would be. The reason I made the excel sheet was so that people could mess around with the numbers to see the worst case and best case scenarios. I just put in 75% psa 9 and 25% psa 10 as a sample. Also the reason I didn’t include psa 8 values is because those, as of right now, wouldn’t make you more than a couple bucks if graded and then sold. Also the prices I put in the spreadsheet are averages from all the auction data on PSA’s own website so that should be as accurate as you’re going to get. Because they are average prices they are also more conservative then I could have made them. Instead of just taking the higher recent prices into account I just averaged everything, even from the start of 2017-end of 2016.
Oh and the reason I have a lot of the psa 9s at 10 dollars is that I’m listing the expected profit from grading and selling on ebay, not the inherent value of the graded card itself.
I understand how and why you did everything, and I appreciate the effort, but it just isn’t accurate.
Anyway, like I said, I like this idea and I Think it could be very useful if done right. It reminds me of what is done in the mtg community.
So you think that I should raise all the averages? Personally if I was to use the information to open a box I would want to use the worst case pricing to know what the expected value of opening a box was.
Another issue is that with the base set 2 cards there is a lot less data on sales then a base set charizard would have. So even though there may have been a recent card that sold for X, that doesn’t mean that much.