Here’s my question - How do you calculate if something is under/over valued? I’m not too experienced analyzing value but here’s a shot at proving that PSA 9 Alakazam is currently undervalued.
From zandgemporium.com I double checked Alakazam latest eBsy sold prices and it seems accurate.
Adjusted price subtracting $20 for cost and effort to grade the above cards (I know ZandG’s figures are rounded but I’ll still do it to be consistant)
155 Alakazam
1480 Charizard
680 Blastoise
480 Venusaur
Looking at PWCC “Auction Only” eBay history for PSA 9 back in 2018
50 Alakazam
160 Charizard
80 Blastoise
55 Venusaur
Adjusted subtracting $20 for cost and effort to grade
30 Alakazam
140 Charizard
60 Blastoise
35 Venusaur
Increase % from 2018 to Sept 2020 (using adjusted prices).
517% Alakazam
1057% Charizard
1133% Blastoise
1371% Venusaur
CONCLUSION
Alakazam has not increased as much as the Big Three (Zard, Blast, Venus), so the Base Set holos are being driven by popularity more than rarity. This suggests a future market correction that would increase the price of Alakazam.
NOTES
Unfortunately price 2018 price data for other holos is scarce but I remeber seeing them sell occasionally for $20 - $30. I see a lot more analysis of 1st Edition cards, I understand this is a more sound base for analasys because of more price history and because they are not as close to the $20 cost of grading threshold, but wanted to do unlimited becasue 1st edition is crazy expensive for a college student like me haha
I wonder how do the Big Three typically act differently that the rest of the holos for other sets?
Analysis is a fun time kill, and makes for a good YouTube video, but there are too many variables, and too much missing data. Formulation of a reasonable prediction is extremely difficult.
@swarm good point, It seems like unlimited PSA 9s are just now forming solid sales data. I think Alakazam would be on par with price increase of Gyarados and Hitmonchan.
@trainerdlyellow I think so too, I’d more likely buy from a more comprehensive feel of the card with a lot more research than one analysis. In your opinion, how importaint are different metrics if you had to rank them? Increase in sale price? Price vs price of pack/box it came in? Pop report? Difficulty to grade?
I can’t really comment on your methodology because I suck at maths, but it was a fun read. I have mostly an issue with the semantics. If the the card sells consistently for 175 USD now and for 350 USD one year later, those are its objective values at the given times. Nothing over or undervalued there.
Of course you can make bets and predictions on value trends of certain items - and I do think that Alakazam has a good shot at an increase. BUT you can NEVER assume that any other card, even from the same set, develops in the fashion of the Zard of this set. Completely different, independent wheelhouses.
The market doesn’t really follow a rational pattern and therefore a mathematical approach like yours can point you in the right direction, but I bet it’ll rarely get you a 100% accurate image of the future.
I think it’s important to realize that an increased emphasis on popularity relative to rarity may never correct in the future.
It was only a few months ago when people were going bananas because a 1st Edition PSA 10 Base Set Charmander was $700 bucks. People here were speculating buyout, manipulation, fake bids, etc. I recall a longtime collector telling me that whoever that is buying these are brain dead idiots because the pop for these are so high. And now they are trading over $2k and no one is saying that anymore.
There are many of us here that remember that base set Charmander being just another common card back when we were kids. If anyone traded a Charmander for a rare whatever it is was (even a trainer) you would think they got jipped. But new people possibly older folks are entering the pokemon now and they know Charmander like they know Charizard. For godsakes, your parents probably know charizard from a poster, video games, commercials or what have you. But not nearly as many causals know of Alakazam. So that price increase driven by popularity you speak of is probably true, but it’s quite possible it’s here to stay as well and may never fully correct so to speak.
