I am new to the current state of pokemon cards. I am a 29 year old dentist. I’ve been buying alternative assets for about 10 years and made well into the six figures on them while putting very little initial capital. These included Nike shoes, Supreme, Bitcoin and Kaws Artwork/Figures for the most part. Some examples include: In 2014ish I bought around 20 Supreme T-shirts for $32 each and they are worth over $2k today. Bought 5 Kaws Figures for $300 each and are worth over 4k each. Not to mention his Prints which some are hitting in the six figures already. Those are just a few examples of the items.
I always keep an ear to the ground for other alternative assets to acquire. The past year and a half or so I’ve been a pokemon card market observer. I don’t just buy things off the cuff. After following different types of cards for that time period I have finally decided on one type to start acquiring as a longer term investment. I’ve acquired some already - so I’ll share and give the reasoning behind it.
1999 PSA 10 Unlimited Base Set Charizard is the card I’ve been buying. I believe most of you here will feel that is contrarian. There are several reasons why I’m buying this card vs the 1st edition or shadowless. (and any other card for that matter at this time).
Reasoning:
Back in 1999 I was a 9 year old and like everyone else I was obsessed with pokemon cards. Charizard was the ultimate. We did not care or even know about the 1st edition/ Shadowless differences (Definitely not shadowless). We use to go to the mall’s card shop and stare at the charizard for sale at $30 dreaming about it. Eventually some of us got lucky enough to pull a charizard out of a pack or even convince our mom to buy us the card at the mall. They were all the unlimited base charizard. 20 years later almost none of my friends have their cards anymore.
Right now we are in a collectors market I believe, that is why the value is skewed to the 1st edition and shadowless at the moment. After age 40 the sentimental buyer starts showing up in the market in large quantities. They begin to start buying their childhood toys back after thier midlife crisis and/or becoming more financially independent.
I believe they will favor the unlimited PSA 10 over the 1st/Shadowless because THAT ONE was the card most of us had. Also, because the prices of the 1st/Shadowless will already be fully valued from the collector crowd. People don’t go back and buy variations of their favorite toy, they want the same exact one. When I held my PSA 10 charizard for the first time, I actually shed a tear because it brought back so many memories.
The population ratio of PSA 10 1st edition to unlimited is about 1:4. Yet, the prices of each are valued around 1:25 (40k to 1.5kish). Discrepancies peak my interest. We could one day see $100k 1st to $20k unlimited (Or something along that ratio) I believe. Only around 400 people or so will ever be able to own a perfect condition childhood icon.
I feel far more safe buying several PSA 10 unlimited at around 1.5-2.0k than 1 at 40k right now because of the parabolic rise in those 1st ed. Those parabolic rises are usually not sustainable. The PSA unlimited has slowly been creeping up which I feel more comfortable with.
As far as the shadowless, I think they are a collector niche item and not what I want to be in for the long run. I am betting on the sentimental collector showing up to the market in the future. You could consider me one of the earlier group of purely sentimental collectors with money to deploy to appear I suppose because I’ve made money quicker than most of the people my age.
Tell me your thoughts. I am a complete newbie to the current state of pokemon cards so I could be completely wrong. But I do have a sharp instinct for the future value of things. My name is Cameron and any of you can feel free to reach out to me at @drcameron_ on instagram.
Pleasure to be in the group!
edit: As far as buying a PSA 5 1st edition or PSA 10 unlimited (roughly same price) - I believe people are going to want a perfect condition one (Again: of the one THEY HAD as a kid) versus a highly scratched up one that detracts from its beauty. They will want to look at it and feel like they just pulled it out of the pack all over again from 1999.
People have always chased the top of the mountain. If that continues to be the case, then for base set it will always be 1st edition > Shadowless > unlimited.
IMO, if people really only cared about the nostalgia factor, then PSA 8-9 unlimited Charizards are where it’s at. Why do they even need to pay the gem mint premium if not for that chase factor?
@newcollector , Im not saying that 1st editions will decrease in value. Rather that the gap between the 1st edition and unlimited will slim over time. I do realize this is a contrarian thesis to most of the group. Just my 2 cents.
I have considered them acquiring PSA 9s as well. I’m sure many of them will. There is just such a large pop disparity b/t the PSA 9 to 10 unlimited so not many people would have to opt for the 10 to drive prices of them higher.
Hi Cameron. I have 50 Unlimited 10s as well as 10 each of the 1st and Shadowless, which kinda match your ratios, so I’ve paid close attention.
One correction is unlimited grew to 2000.00 a couple years ago then steadily declined to about 1000-1200. Now it’s climbed again to 14-1500. 1st and shadowless never had a downturn, going as far back as 1999.
How you interpret that is up to debate but I wanted you to have all the info which is what we do here on E4.
@garyis2000, wow what a collection! I’ve noted those price movements while evaluating this market. I don’t want to come off as if im trying to argue with the group (because I know very little at the moment) but I didn’t state that I believe 1st/shadowless are due for a downturn in value in the future. Merely, I believe a higher rate of return (Percentage) in the unlimited compared the 1st/shadowless will occur going forward.
I also am a serious stock market investor and one thing about price movements is that its healthier for something to move in the manner the unlimiteds did (Probably a gap fill and run) than when something just keeps going parabolically up.
Welcome to E4, Cameron! Your theory is intriguing and well elaborated. You’re definitely in the right place when it comes to discussing the investment-side of the Pokémon TCG, as there is an abundance of experts here. One thing I would consider when evaluating your strategy is the substantial amount of print runs when comparing first edition base set cards with unlimited. With unlimited having about seven times more print runs than the elusive first edition print, availability will always be a compelling factor when it comes to price fluctuations between the two. There will always be people chasing the rarity and pristine quality of both types.
@pokemoncardproject, Thanks!
What I gathered is even though unlimited has so much more raw product on the market - Wouldn’t the PSA 10 unlimited charizard pop stay close to what it is today (maybe +10% more if people open more packs in the future)?
Maybe someone could shed some light on if theres a high chance of that pop increasing substantially over time?
Im sure the pop of the PSA 10 1st edition should stay close to what it is today.
That would change my thesis a little.
This quote has served me well over time and I’ll leave it for the group.
“Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”
“If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.”
The 1st Ed Pop hasn’t gone up in a long time so I wouldn’t expect that to change anytime soon. There will be increases in the unlimited numbers but not sure if it would meet your level of “substantial”.
The Unlimited Black Lotus fetches a pretty penny. Maybe one day the Unlimited Charizard will too.
Maybe not comparable. Don’t know the number of Magic printed vs. pokemon.
How were you able to buy so many scalper items etc… do you use bots, back door deals from employees or are you from a country with not much competition?
In Australia it’s barely possible to get anything close to the numbers you are stating
youre probably referring to Supreme? I was buying since 2010 and it was very easy to buy anything until around 2017. I also discovered a trick on their website that allowed me to order multiple items with 1 click after adding just 1 item to the cart. It doesnt work after 2017. I dont really mess with the new supreme stuff anymore.
In 2014 I got about 10 of my classmates to purchase a box logo shirt for me with their credit card along with what I could purchase that day. $32 a tee!
This is an intriguing thread you’ve created, @mervjackson.
You’ve put a lot of thought into this venture and it shows. Thank you for sharing this information!
I’ve been back and forth on this card from a financial standpoint for a while now. The raw numbers say it’s not great to hold. It hasn’t had much growth and from what it has grown it hasn’t been as good as other WOTC cards.
Everything you’ve posted is correct, but it’s just the numbers that hold me back. Simply put there’s over 400 of these in PSA 10, and the numbers are still growing. I think if the pop starts to slow down we’ll see some major growth, but who knows when that will happen.
With that said, it’s a great card for a collection and I hold quite a bit of them. I just think if you’re looking on the financial side, I’d pick a different card. It’s like holding non-holo 1st ed base cards. It’s not bad, just not great. Pick a different Charizard (1st ed or shadowless, not necessarily base set) and you’ll be better off.
