日本のマーケット部分 The Giant Japanese Market Thread

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6239

There are some cards, like the Psyduck Munch & the Ancient Mew early correction, 2-3 months ago Psyduck Munch PSA 10 was roughly about 6/7k I think, now people are trying to sell theirs for 10k-13k+. Although I haven’t seen someone pay 13k for the munch, but they’re certainly trying to sell it for around that much.

Same for that Ancient Mew PSA 10, last one I saw sold on eBay for around $3,500, but now there are people selling theirs for 25k+.

Does anybody know why this is happening? Why the sudden burst of higher asking prices (& for what some of these cards sold for)?

I suppose it’s a good push for the ones who own some of these cards, but still, why?

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6240

This may be true, but you’ll be hard pressed to find a buyer willing to pay PSA 10 prices for a sealed pack with a chance at a 10. That said, the market is wild and unpredictable right now, so you might as well try to ask that high.

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6241

For the 1# media franchise to ever exist, that has an international audience, I mean yah there might that many people at those price points.

26million copies of SV sold, I would imagine the general PKMN fandom is larger than this. 1000 people existing with high budgets interested in PKMN seems pretty realistic.

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6242

I think it’s moreso the rarity of the pack itself that makes it special. I’ve seen so many other Vintage JP packs and boxes with an EV of 40% or less, where people still pay a huge sealed premium because of the low availability. I remember a box of Golden Sky, Silvery Ocean selling for maybe 50k back when the top hit, Suicune GS, was maybe 3-4k in a PSA 10. That being said, you’re right that the pool of buyers willing to spend 15k+ on this pack is probably very small, but then again I’d imagine that the availability of the pack is even smaller, so who knows. Personally I wouldn’t even sell it for 15k, because replacing it would be essentially impossible. I’d much sooner sell my PSA 10.

All of this is just hypothetical because neither are for sale :sweat_smile:

6243

Almost every sealed product has a lower EV than its sale price: packs, decks, boxes, etc. Other rare sealed items don’t sell for PSA 10 prices of the main chase card (e.g., 1st ed Base Set, Trainer Decks A and B, sealed Japanese EBD packs, etc.).

But if you’re not selling, then it doesn’t really matter. :slight_smile:

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6244

I see the pack itself as a far more interesting and special collectible than the potential grade of the card inside. So I’d never open it, regardless of the value discrepancy between the PSA 10 and the pack itself. Interestingly though, other WEB packs have sold for more than the PSA 10 price of the card inside, but that has still been in the range of a few grand. Zapdos pack sold for little over 2k even though the Zapdos is maybe 1k in a PSA 10. As you said, wild market. The WB Kids pack that hit $15k on Goldin is what got me thinking about this.

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6245

This is another great example of the sealed pack being worth considerably less than the hit card in PSA 10. Or even a full PSA 9 set… the Poke Card Creator set is getting expensive these days.

Yes, I agree with you.

The cheaper the card, the less discrepancy there will be in the price. Other examples are sealed Mew ex and Celebi ex play promos. Before the boom, the sealed packs were not achieving PSA 10 prices or greater, but they were also not enormously expensive cards. Now they have become very pricey and the sealed packs are probably worth more because of that.

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6246

:person_shrugging:

Then why don’t auctions go on longer and push $10k, $20k, or $50k for JP Lugia then?

People can follow other passions with such a budget and make it go a lot further.

How many of those 26 million SV buyers are parents purchasing for their kids, or people struggling to pay rent, or paying with credit, or are paying off a car, or still need of a car, or collect a totally different language, or aren’t aware of Neo Gen, or aware of 1st Ed., or only binder collect, or aren’t interested in cards altogether?

1000 is not a lot but it also is. People don’t understand how niche of a hobby this is.

There aren’t typically 200 people competing for one card. A small handful are competing and most bow out much sooner at much more modest prices.

There are millions of star wars fans, music artists/groups, and so on, but memorabilia isn’t inherently $x just because it comes from a popular franchise.

Moreover, there’s a gigafuckload of cards to collect, and most people are not collecting them all, contrary to the Pokemon mantra.

Why would I buy a Lugia when I can buy a Crystal or a Gold Star for, in some cases, the same or similar price? If there are really that many people with such purchasing power and interest, why weren’t Gold Stars $200k+ already when some are <50 pop? Why was I able to sell for more than double the offers I was receiving last year, just three months ago?

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6247

Same for that Ancient Mew PSA 10, last one I saw sold on eBay for around $3,500, but now there are people selling theirs for 25k+.

Last one sold for about 6k, that is the market price. Asking BIN prices are never relevant imo but this practice has always been common. When a card sells for record prices, there will always be people who make use of that sale and list it for more hoping to bait somebody fomo’ing

6248

Yup, this hobby is absolutely not that niche anymore

6249

UED vs 1st Ed. is set dependent, it’s not some sweeping truth across all JP cards,

I don’t know about other cards but for mews ued ALWAYS goes for more than 1s edition except for goldstars where it is currently unsettled yet. (I suspect they trade for about the same because they have the same supply)

I always had to pay 200-400% more at auctions for the ued counterpart because they are simply alot rarer and scarcer in a psa 10. You cannot find a single 1st edition which sells for more right now. People do not care as much about the stamp with japanese (mew) cards, ued was and is higher prestige. Again I can only speak for mews because I collect them all in both editions.

Neither rarity nor scarcity necessarily demands higher prices.

It is absolutely a matter of scarcity with mews. Ued has way way less supply than 1st ed across all sets but goldstars where it’s 31 vs 32, thats why they always sell for more.

6250

This HAS to be satire. Please tell me its satire….

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6251

I think the much, much higher gem mint rate of WEB affects the price though. If the WB Kids cards had a gem mint rate of, say, 60% instead of 15%, the pack price would likely be closer in value to the PSA 10s, although perhaps not eclipsing them. In the case of WEB you’re more likely to see a 10 than any other grade on pack fresh cards.

I really think that it comes down to the type of person who’s buying them. A speculator looking to make money grading the cards would obviously never spend PSA 10 money on the pack. And it’s probably true that a large portion of the people buying these see them primarily as arbitrage opportunities rather than unique collectibles.

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6252

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6253

I sold one for 15k a couple weeks ago. I remember selling them for $150. :melting_face:

I wonder what this will end at: https://www.ebay.com/itm/287200954557

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6254

Munch and Ponchos are readily available at every card show i attend (in aus) and all vendor are selling them below the new record price (until the next eBay sale occurs)

If i can readily get them in Australia, i assume USA card shows are overflowing with them.

Its honestly the most available high end card in Pokemon and fundamentals seem off. Good luck to the greater fool.

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6255

So, based on that, what happened to Van Gogh Pikachu?

Card was like $50 at a point and today it can fetch up to $900. Its been a while (years) that if the Pokemon has appeal, popular, an story behind it, crossover, etc it will keep climbing.

Sure scarcity helps but there are cards that no matter how much is available they will always be on demand or “perpetually climbing”.

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6257

I should have included van gogh pikachu in my post. He is also a top offendor

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6258

Two of my favourite modern cards! Although if I didn’t already own them, I’m not sure I’d pay the current prices.

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6259

Kinda odd given there are like 5 BIN lower than this

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