I wouldn’t be surprised if it all crashed next week, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the new normal.
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Insight into the current japanese market.
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I like that he admits his bias from the outset. Also, I had zero idea that Japan did Mystery Boxes like this. I find it super fascinating that they could potentially drive the market so significantly.
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Must be quite new that it’s being done digitally. Mystery boxes are definitely huge over there but you’d normally have to go into a card store or even a vending machine.
Doing it on your phones a game changer.
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He has a pretty good pulse on the market. He was right about the clefairy chr promo. I was considering buying it for 500 when he recommended it, and can’t believe it’s 2-3000 now.
The interesting thing he says is that he doesn’t think it’s a bubble but it’s a new ecosystem. Maybe this is a new normal with the stores doing these mystery boxes.
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Its possible. If the business model is to just buy back the hits then they probably don’t need to clear out the market again to continue doing these games, so the market would at least begin to settle a bit.
I wonder what happens if the stores no longer need to source inventory to run the boxes and the actual demand for the cards from non gamblers isn’t there. Do prices drop or do stores just scoop them up to preserve the market value of their mystery box.
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Interesting to see how this new “ecosystem” plays out in the future.
My thoughts on this:
Increased in demand for modern cards is a real thing, otherwise this online gachapon wouldn’t work. So I wouldn’t exactly think that modern cards are in a bubble.
I do not think all the hits would be bought back as japanese collectors tend to keep their collection. As mentioned in the video, Clove is offering way above market rates to entice collectors to let go of their higher end cards.
Furthermore, the price of each draw is 500 to 1000 yen, which is pretty affordable (Just like lottery draws). Can foresee there will be huge demand for these online gachapon draws, like how there will always be people buying regular lottery tickets. Mobile Gacha games culture is pretty popular in Japan as well.
The international market will probably be affected, as supply of popular cards in Japan decreases in the local market. I would imagine more japanese people would turn to the international market platforms like ebay to obtains cards that are out of reach in Japan, driving prices up significantly.
The only time I see this “Ecosystem” burst/fail is when the pokemon TCG loses its popularity in Japan, which I don’t see it happening anytime soon. Certain set cards with lower rarity are definitely risky purchases now (looking at you CHR lilie clefairy), but for more limited modern promos like the ponchos and the munch, where will people find cheaper copies available?
Don’t forget about the china market too, another huge demand variable for Japanese cards. All these combined I think we will be seeing surging prices for modern cards in the foreseeable future.
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Thanks for the video - very interesting.
I like that he’s actually providing new information and explanations rather than all the other clown tubers guessing or hyping things they don’t understand.
If they do succeed (IDK how long it’s already been going for) in turning it into/normalizing it into a traditional lottery system, he’s right that it will be a new ecosystem. Honestly, it’s actually very smart on the part of Clove by taking the gacha game psychology and applying it to real life.
Does Clove have any physical presence? The main criticism so far is that players can’t get cards - yes, they won’t use high rarity (not true in Japan actually) but since the other cards hold no value, trashing them means players cannot get them. If they developed another part of the system where these no value cards can be traded in to physical stores, maybe for lottery tickets, then that criticism goes away and TPC has actually 0 incentive at all to change.
TPC will keep selling out - what they want to do as a company - and players will be able to get cards wherever for cheap at these stores. That means that there will be a cap on the number of chase cards so that this lottery can keep going on indefinitely as there is always supply pressure.
Still a lot of kinks and leaks to address - cards going overseas etc. but it’s already working and I can see them figuring it out since they created this gacha lottery in the first place.
TPC’s swerve into better and better art and known artists will only help things further as the cards/art remain desirable since there is some prestige or fandom going on that is independent of Pokemon.
Interesting times ahead.
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Imagine if they devised some sort of system where you could open up, like, a mystery pack of some sort – and there is the possibility of a rare, reverse holo rare, full art rare and SECRET rare. It would be maybe 600 yen per pack but there is a small chance you can get a REALLY rare card.
That’d be crazy.
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Sounds like MTG Collector Boosters.
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I’ll call it a “booster pack” – maybe we could put like 30 of them into a box and sell that too.
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Yes, they have a store in akihabara where they also sell these オリパs.
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I’ve watched his other recent videos, and his predictions on which cards will moon are accurate. Too accurate. It’s suspicious that he can pinpoint so accurately what would go up (down to the cards) instead of narrowing it down to a certain group of cards even 3 months ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has connections to the mystery box ring and if he’s supposed to create publicity and fomo for certain cards.
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Isn’t he based in Hong Kong? I kind of doubt he has any reach into Japan.
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He’s allowed to have connections, friends and extended family members in Japan. Maybe he has an equity stake in a Japanese company or he lived in Japan?
According to Wikipedia, there are at least 18,210 Hong Kong folks living in Japan. Likewise, around 27,000 Japanese living in Hong Kong. All it takes is one connection for that reach to happen.
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Asian Illuminati pumping up Japanese card prices confirmed - this guy’s just a member of the Hong Kong chapter.
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lol okay.
Getting real for a sec. All Clove have done is tap into a golden goose market that literally every media company including Pokemon have been desperately trying to find their own one of ever since digital commerce and consumables became a thing. They found a way for people to hand over money in exchange for nothing essentially through gambling. Sure, they might have a couple whales here and there but I guarantee the biggest source of money for this stuff is random kids who couldn’t give a crap about blowing 10,000 yen here or there of their parent’s money on some bullshit gatcha lottery.
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This has been around for awhile. There are high roller Y1,000,000 Packs and you can digitally trade them in for “points” etc. There are vid (japanese) that have kids spending $10,000’s on packs and trade in and rebuy.
Also, the dude in the vid is not accounting the Japanese government is watching this pokemon ‘gamblin’ at the moment. The government might step in at some point, the underground (yakuza) is getting involved with pokemon shops already.
So many variables right now. Nothing is as simple as videos on social media. Never thought of posting Japanese videos on this type of topic cause i considered this forum highly intelligent and the most knowledgeable about Pokemon.
Again, tons of vids like this in Japanese about Searching, hacks, digital packs, gambling , release etc. on Pokemon. Never thought of posting here.
You all are great. Love to learn from this forum, not social media outside of Japan . Late news if the video is in English.
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