The Sandisk of our hobby
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Suicune Aquapolis up from 3.9k to 7.2k
hasnāt sold since the post boom boom so not surprising
Kingdra Aquapolis, Bellossom Aquapolis both had record sales too
Exp Magby, Aqua Arc, Aqua Entei all pretty stable with last solds
Jeeeeeezzzzz, this is one I hadnāt followed. I didnāt realize these went up that much. I opened one of these a few years ago. Paid ~$1100 IIRC. $30k is genuinely insane.
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TBH, I think PSA 10 sales arenāt a very good indicator of demand/overall market health. 100% of the people paying even the post-āretraceā numbers for those cards are new market participants, because most of these are still up like 2000% from last year lol.
Like, look at this trajectory for a moment:
These are all sales from within 1 yr. Is the takeaway that Hitmontop declined by 60% in value? IMO, no. The $5.8k sale was never a reflection of anything other than the willingness of a two irrational people to pay an irrational price for a card at a single point in time. I think the more natural takeaway is that weāre still in a period of irrational exuberance where people think paying 7x the price that something sold for a year ago is a decision that will work out.
Many of the prices you quoted are the equivalent of the $5.8k Hitmontop sale. They were outlier sales that were never replicable, let alone indicative of anything meaningful.
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Firstly, my comment isnāt commentary on āmarket healthā, so i hope it doesnāt come off as such.
Iām merely noting large ups and downs for big cards in notable auctions. But unfortuantely, lots of excitable people use these big sales as drivers for their hype-based model.
My main point, which i think agrees with your comment, and as i have stated here before, is that one off sales of big cards are difficult to use as price guides for the value of cards in the future.
All a big sale means, is that someone really wanted that specific card at that one moment in time.
Good or bad, people will use a big sale as a marker for pricing their own item for sale, and as seen on Instagram and other places, these cards can go unsold for periods of time as the person who was willing to pay that, already bought it.
Taking the hitmontop example. To say that the Hitmontop has declined 60% in value is of course completely nonsense, and is why i never talk about āvalueā, just data points of sales. If it sells again in the next few months, itāll probably by 3k+, so yeah, +1000% YoY - by far and away from a 60% decrease!
This is a perfect example of āitās worth what someone is willing to pay for itā, rather than āitās worth what the last person bought it forā
The post wasnāt meant to come across as shitting on the market and that everything is falling, PANIK - more that people shouldnāt get sucked into the hype-beast, super stonks, every Holo is now worth 100k trap that is bubbling around (less so on here granted, where people are more level headed)
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I wasnāt really disagreeing with you. Was basically just giving a perspective on it that might conflict with what some people might immediately conclude given the #s you mentioned. Basically agree with what you wrote here. Using a single comp is a very dangerous game for PSA 10s.
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Whoever paid $5800 for a Hitmontop has had a lobotomy and needs therapy.
For people who find this helpful Iād recommend giving collectibleinvestor a follow on IG.
I believe all this data is from his stories, heās been giving really insightful and balanced market summaries after each weekendās big auction blocks finish for a few months now.
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There was a guy on reddit back in 2018 who had a good amount of them and could not move them for $300 no matter how hard he tried. Kinda hope he held them past 2020
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man, every time I save up. The price went up even more. 