I am not a sports card collector, but I feel like the rookie appeal comes from the idea that it’s the player before they were known, before anyone knew who they would later become.
I can sort of see the analogy in Pokemon, but it’s not as clear. Especially if we start talking about a 2002 Mew card. By 2002 everyone knew Mew. There is no “unknown talent” effect there.
It also isn’t really seen as Mew’s first appearance in English speaking countries. We already had accepted Ancient Mew as one of “our” cards, even though it wasn’t English.
I heard that Pokemon Company will be adding RC, Autos, Patches, and game-worn materials starting with the 30th Anniversary Set to help expand their market to sports card investors.
I look to the PSA 9 to PSA 10 price gap as how detached from reality the market is for a card. Of course we expect a premium. But the larger the difference the more I question how stable the 10 price is. Exceptions being cards with extreme PSA9-PSA10 ratios
how detached from reality the market is for a card.
The market is the reality, both buyers and sellers are real
The value lies in the label, a 10 with sickening off centering and clear whitening will still sell for more than a perfect 9
The conditional rarity of the label 10s are treated like deflationary, hard capped, hard assets now. Its psychological. There will only be a certain number of 10s and then no more but dollars are infinite.
It touches into the current debasement narrative of our time. People want to spend their money into hard assets before the dollar inflates, others want to launder money. A hard capped 10 is psychologically ideal.
One reason bitcoin did so well is because of its deflationary hard coded hard capped supply which is verifiable by everyone. Psa 10s have the same appeal. The fed will continue to print endless fiat but the supply of vintage 10s will remain the same
The more wild the PSA 10 values become, the more PSA 9s are cracked and resubmitted trying to hit a 10, inflating the PSA 8 and 9 numbers, and making the gem rate appear artificially lower than it actually is. Which in turn might push prices higher. Until it doesn’t?
I’m not anti 10, but I just don’t get some of these values.
The market has turned much more toward “rookies” and “first appearance” cards in the short time I’ve been here. I like that “iconic” or superior artwork tends to trump “first appearance,” and with set collecting on the downswing, it does allow Pokemon to operate under its own rules. Just so long as people understand sentiments CHANGE and rules were made to be broken.
My concern isn’t with the current reality. A moment in time is already over before you can even think if it having happened. I’m more interested in trajectory. PSA 9s tell you how deep the demand goes.
I take it you never ever in your life collected any sports cards. Like pre-1996. You’d be sending a lot of good people to prison over something so nominally inconsequential and what amounts to a you versus others problem. Or do you have more lures to cast lol
Because it’s a company that will make adjustments as the market dictates?
A publically traded company has responsibility to stockholders, not owners of pokemon card slabs. New CEO, new priorities, changing macro economic trends, lots of reasons why rhetoric could change.
Is it possible they get more strict? Or nothing ever changes? Sure it is. But dismissing it can go the other way doesn’t make sense imo.
Edit: Forgot daddy nat took collectors private, but either way think the point still stands. Not shareholders here, but investors or a board all the same have significant pull in a company’s operations.
I differentiate first appearance from rookie because that’s the way I learned it. First appearance might be in a minor league uni but rookie being first appearance in a Tops or Bowman or other set and in their first pro year. People still argue about Mantle’s “true” rookie but so far only one of them has commanded the highest price. Same thing with Charizard. Base 1st is the rookie and the one that carries the premium, doesn’t matter what first appearance is. Not as much anyway. AND still time for market sentiment to change and maybe the Skyridge Zard becomes the chase someday, who knows, that’s one of the things that makes Pokemon so fun.
