I know this is very anecdotal but I’ve started to feel nostalgic about sets from 2014 that I started when I got back into the hobby after I started my job back in 2014. Back then I was on a low wage and had a lot more important things to spend money on, so my collections and pack openings were budgeted.
This year I got back into the hobby after a 4 year break and I have a lot more disposable income. I’ve been completing the goals I started back in 2014 and I’ve started other goals with some of the sets I missed when I stopped collecting.
The point I’m trying to make is that some adults who may not be able to afford that many modern cards in 2020 will come back to the hobby in the future when they have a much more significant disposable income.
I’m not saying you’re alone in experiencing what you have, but I do think that nostalgia is near-universally for childhood experiences. Nostalgia is a very specific sort of gut emotional reaction that people have, and it simply isn’t felt for experiences had in adulthood for most people. So while there may be some exceptions to what I originally stated, I maintain that a vast majority of adults collecting 2020 Pokémon cards right now will not feel any sort of nostalgia for them in 15 or 20 years.
I understand the nostalgia argument, but it can get a little focused on this idea of someone having nostalgia only for a specific card/design. Is it not possible some people just have nostalgia for Pokemon cards in general, and that might extend into newer iterations of the cards once they do a bit of exploration? Or they have a nostalgic connection to a specific Pokemon, and so they then look to collect more cards featuring that Pokemon? Did you never come across a card you’d never seen before and thought, “I have to have this one,” based on the art alone? I think nostalgic emotional attachment is an important factor, but the definition is sometimes a little restrictive.
I’m not a psychologist so all of this is purely anecdotal: but for me, nostalgia doesn’t extend to anything other than its direct object. I can appreciate the aesthetic value of modern Latias/Latios cards, but I don’t feel any emotional connection to them. But I feel a strong attachment to Latias/Latios ex from EX Dragon, despite the fact that there’s nothing objective that’s better about them than the modern Latias/Latios cards. Even if I wanted to collect the modern Latias/Latios cards (which I don’t), I would be much less inclined (and actually entirely unwilling) to spend significant amounts of money for them. On the other hand, if a PSA 10 Latias/Latios ex from EX Dragon was listed on eBay for $1000, I’d instabuy it with zero hesitation. My point in giving this example is to illustrate that it’s a sort of gut attachment that drives people to spend personally significant amounts of money on cards.
So I accept that some people might expand their collecting beyond what they feel nostalgia for. But I believe that nostalgia drives collecting, and that it drives people to spend more money than they otherwise would on cards – nostalgia has the potential to override reason/objectivity in a way that little else does.
Me too. One of the things I like about modern currently is how easy it is to find mint 10 candidates. Also the pull rates on these cards aren’t exactly easy. They have been no brainier pick ups.
I kind of just watch the market for a few weeks or so after release to let the hype die down so I’m buying at the low point. For example Rainbow Rare Butterfree was a whopping $10… That really broke the bank and I’m confident it’s a 10
Yup some absolutely beautiful modern cards are out in the SWSH series now with less than stellar pull rates. The gold shiny are underrated imo and a little bit slept on plus look at cards like that Butterfree rainbow! What maybe pull one per case on average and it costs 10 bucks? Yes please.
Modern has been fun for cracking packs and then picking up singles to grade. The full arts are beautiful and I’m hoping to grade a PSA 10 set of all the SWSH series full arts myself. A new fun goal lets me grade gem cards, small challenge, keeps it all fun.
It seems like more modern Zards such as Burning shadows and Hidden Fates have had fairly decent upticks in price over the last little while. I wonder if they will continue to climb. It will be interesting to see how the new Charizards in Champion’s Path do.
I do agree actually, maybe my feelings towards 2014 sets isn’t nostalgia but a desire to finish something which I previously didn’t have the funds to accomplish.
Moving away from the nostalgia point, I still think adults buying modern in 2020 will still be interested in 2020 sets 5-10 years down the line. I’m sure there’s a huge amount of adult collectors who wish they could afford to complete hidden fates, but simply don’t have the disposable income to do so. But when their incomes increase in the future they may return to finish the iconic sets which they never managed to do as a younger adult.
Especially where Pokemon is now becoming a multi-generational franchise I think the sentiment and commitment to the hobby is becoming more justified. I can imagine adults themselves getting back into the hobby when their kids start to collect. For example I’m keeping some sealed hidden fates and evolution’s for my future kids to open since I think they’re such unique and timeless sets. But again maybe I’m just an outlier on this case?
Certainly there will be some interest in Hidden Fates in a decade. The thing that makes me highly skeptical that the prices for it are sustainable is the simple fact of how much supply of mint condition cards there is. There are millions of packs being opened, and the vast majority of those cards are being perfectly preserved. This simply wasn’t the case for sets from 15-20 years ago – the vast majority of cards opened in 2003 aren’t still in anything close to pristine condition. And that’s why the prices have gotten so high for cards: there’s just not a large enough supply of NM condition cards to meet the demand. And there’s an insignificant amount of sealed product left, so there’s no real source of more NM cards.
So it’s not that I don’t think there will be interest in Hidden Fates in 10 years; it’s that the market will be saturated. There’s too much sealed product being kept sealed and too many cards being perfectly preserved. So I think it will never, regardless of demand, attain the levels of collectibility that 15-20 year old sets have.
I love the gold Pokemon cards from sw/sh. It’s a super affordable miniset compared to what other things are going for right now on my list and they’re extremely accessible. Really good decision to go back to it, gives me BW era secret rare vibes.
General tips are hard to give since the more general the advice, the less useful it is but I’ll take a stab at it. I’d say modern has ticked up for the more popular stuff (flashfire charizards, gen 1 starter full arts, etc.) and things like that since I’ve been loosely keeping an eye on prices for them. In general, just based off of TCGplayer, supply has really dried up. Used to be a lot of entries on there for NM copies of full arts from BW to present. SM full arts aren’t doing too well, still lots of copies out there for cheap. The Charizards are doing well, the RRs ticked up. In general, anything that’s popular (i.e. charizard braixen RR, blastoise gx RR, etc.) has risen a fair amount. Before covid those two cards were going for ~30 usd an ~20-25 usd on ebay and tcgplayer. Now it’s at least tripled if not quadrupled in price.
Just anecdotal observations so take it as you will but I hope it helps
It’s an exciting discussion, you’re completely correct with regards to supply of sealed and NM products. On that basis alone sets like Hidden Fates should never reach the prices of vintage. But I do think there are other drivers for price than what vintage is used to. I would make a case that the collectibility of modern cards is less reliant on the low supply of mint conditions, and more built upon aesthetics and hype. Hype might seem like an irrational driver of price, but it can be sustained. Looking at other collectibles like KAWS is a good example of this.
As more and more collectors are priced out of purchasing vintage cards, they will look to cheaper modern cards. That’s why I think there will still be growth in modern cards, not on the same level as vintage but still commendable.
I also think that the sentimental attachment to Pokemon cards limits a crash in card prices. Again using my self anecdotally, If any of my collection we’re to drop below what I paid for it I would never consider selling it, since I happily bought it at that price with no intention of selling it in the future. The collectibility and value of a card can’t always be measured in it’s cash value.
At the moment the prices seem unreasonably high, and there probably will be a correction soon. But I’m confident that the overall trend will be gradual growth.
@arkhive I’ve personally witnessed the availability of a ton of cards dry up. I happened to grab pretty much one of everything worth grabbing from every era off Tcgplayer. Check out my collection haha. So I’m sure I played a small role. But at least I’m not someone who bought 5-10 plus of everything!
I understand aiming for a PSA 10 for their collection so they buy abunch to have multiple attempts but it really screws fellow collectors.
It is what it is tho but it’s good to keep up with every era and not underestimate any part of the market.
Haha I have, you’ve a great one I think a lot of people came in during covid and just cleaned tcgplayer out, same thing happened with some other online vendors. Demand went up, supply went down. Yeah, I definitely understand aiming for the 10, it’s just part of the hobby right now when grading puts such a premium on the value of it, no hate but it can be rough for the less well off people hoping to just get a raw copy.
But yeah, it is what it is and I love that every era right now has its strengths for collectors.
