The Giant English Market Thread

[zorloth]

@ibrakadabra

@zorloth

I have to say: this question occupies my mind lately. I am wondering what factors determine whether people are still interested in the Pokemon TCG 20 or 30 years from now. And especially if younger generations will enter the hobby.
My own expectation is that there won’t be many young people entering the hobby, because they did not grow up in a time where Pokemon cards where booming (as opposed to us).

Edit: the quoting did not go well, but I meant to quote your last paragraph

Two questions that relate to this:

1. What was the demographic breakdown of Pokemon card collectors in 2003? I think it’s safe to say that 90% or 95%+ of collectors were under the age of 18.
2. What is the demographic breakdown of Pokemon card collectors in 2020? No one knows the exact numbers, but here’s an uncontroversial truth: there are way more adult collectors right now than at any point in the hobby.

This is an another factor that makes me unconfident in the future of modern cards. Much of the current demand for modern Pokemon cards is coming from adults. But what drives the market for 15-20+ year old Pokemon cards? Nostalgia. And people simply don’t experience nostalgia for things they did as adults. Therefore there will be a glut of 2020 Pokemon cards in 2040 relative to the nostalgic demand that will exist for them. Adults are contributing to the demand, and therefore the size of the print runs, of modern Pokemon cards. But people who are currently adults will not be contributing to the demand for 2020 Pokemon cards in 2040. The current crop of Pokemon cards will never be like those from that 1999-2007 era for this reason alone – and there are a slew of other reasons why this will also be be the case. But just this observation alone is enough to make it the case.

[zorloth]

@thatblastoiseguy

@ibrakadabra

“…My own expectation is that there won’t be many young people entering the hobby, because they did not grow up in a time where Pokemon cards where booming (as opposed to us)…”

@ibrakadabra , don’t forget that you can have the same number of investors (with some expected attrition per year) who are consistently completing their collection goals and are probably getting wealthier as well. Sure, you’d have some drop off due to life commitments as well, but the health of the hobby will remain as long as Pokemon cards and Pokemon remain relevant to the current market.

I regard WOTC as vintage, and everything after that is modern. @zorloth , probably because of MTG, so I have a similar sentiment to you. But for Pokemon TCG, I believe they regard the current ‘standard’ sets as modern, and everything after that is somehow vintage.

How is black and white vintage? Then again, my opinion is only relevant to me haha.

Here’s the thing @thatblastoiseguy: the print run trajectory of Pokemon and MTG was vastly different:

1. MTG started with small print runs, and the print runs increased dramatically over the following five years.
2. Pokemon started with large print runs, and the runs decreased dramatically the following five years.

This is why there’s little to no collectible value for MTG cards printed in 1998 (there are, incidentally, plenty of valuable cards from 1998 – but this is because there were many highly playable cards printed that year).

And this is why there is significant collectible demand for Pokemon cards printed in 2003 (see Skyridge). As it happens, Skyridge is more desirable than any Pokemon set preceding it except for 1st Edition Base. So I believe that the vintage era of Pokemon actually was larger than it was for MTG. I believe the vintage era of MTG was that early, low print run era (basically every up to Revised, plus Legends). But I believe that the vintage era of Pokemon is everything up through the mid-2000s, because the print runs were in decline until then.

[smpratte]

@zorloth, Pokemon just has a larger collecting base. Modern sets are printed in much larger quantity, and they consistently sell. I’ve always approached mtg entirely with the perspective, “I am weird for collecting”, as most people just play. And the cards/sets are driven by playability. I wish more people would collect in mtg though.

[thatblastoiseguy]

@zorloth, yeah I know, I actually played a lot during the ex era as a kid. Which is why I’m going for the full ex & gold star set, but its a mental hurdle for me to call that vintage in the sense that it was produced in 2005. I tend to think that “old border” = “vintage”

However, do you know where things picked up? Was it during DP, or HGSS, or like much later? I have the impression that there’s a ton of DP/HGSS stuff lying around, yet I also know that HGSS was a ‘low point’ for the hobby too

[zorloth]

@smpratte

@zorloth , Pokemon just has a larger collecting base. Modern sets are printed in much larger quantity, and they consistently sell. I’ve always approached mtg entirely with the perspective, I am weird collecting, as most people just play. And the cards/sets are driven by playability. I wish more people would collect in mtg though.

I agree with that totally. Clearly the modern sets are highly popular and beloved, and much more widely collected than modern MTG sets.

But a larger slice of the demand for current sets (at the time of release) is from adults than there was for WotC and EX Series sets (at the times of their releases). And people collect what they grew up with. And I have no doubt that many children growing up with current sets will collect them when they become adults. But there will be a glut of supply because of the number of adults currently collecting the modern sets – and those adults won’t return to collecting 2020 sets in 2040 because adults aren’t nostalgic for things they did as younger adults. So, relative to the nostalgic demand that will exist for 2020 sets in 2040, there will be more supply, most (or a large portion) of which will be in perfectly preserved condition.

[mcorey777]

@thatblastoiseguy

@zorloth, yeah I know, I actually played a lot during the ex era as a kid. Which is why I’m going for the full ex & gold star set, but its a mental hurdle for me to call that vintage in the sense that it was produced in 2005. I tend to think that “old border” = “vintage”

However, do you know where things picked up? Was it during DP, or HGSS, or like much later? I have the impression that there’s a ton of DP/HGSS stuff lying around, yet I also know that HGSS was a ‘low point’ for the hobby too

As far as I’m aware print runs majorly increased during X and Y era. E series thru black and white era had lower print runs due to the low point in the hobby. The most common sets are base unlimited thru Team Rocket for Wotc era. As people left the hobby the print runs started to decrease starting in Gym Hero’s.

I might be wrong on some small facts but this is the general grasp I’ve gained on print runs.

[zorloth]

@thatblastoiseguy

@zorloth , yeah I know, I actually played a lot during the ex era as a kid. Which is why I’m going for the full ex & gold star set, but its a mental hurdle for me to call that vintage in the sense that it was produced in 2005. I tend to think that “old border” = “vintage”

However, do you know where things picked up? Was it during DP, or HGSS, or like much later? I have the impression that there’s a ton of DP/HGSS stuff lying around, yet I also know that HGSS was a ‘low point’ for the hobby too

I understand that. When I refer to ‘vintage,’ though, you have to remember that I’m not referring to the age of the product. I’m referring to a specific era in the life cycle of a hobby. The trajectory of demand and print runs for Pokemon was simply different, and so the range of organically collectible Pokemon sets is different. For Magic, the only organically collectible sets are those through Antiquities (plus Legends). For Pokemon, the only organically collectible sets are those up through (in my opinion) 2005 – it was in 2006 that the print runs entered a period of incline.

As to your second question: All I know is that print runs started to increase toward the end of the EX-era. I have no clue about the print runs of DP and HGSS, though they were clearly larger than they were 5 years prior.

[yz2428]

i would do the break as 2011, so BW, by my definition, would be the first modern set. however, i would say 2007-2011 was a transition period (aka early-modern), because iphone had just been released (2007) and the internet of things and social media just started being a big thing for the general public from the period 2006-2010. facebook hit 500 million users in 2010, and subsequently 1 billion users in 2012! EX era was technically the rookie era for Nintendo after they took over WoTC, so i’d consider that a “first” generation (or vintage for Nintendo era of Pokemon) due to the nature of business changing hands.

furthermore, the most recent 3 generations (B&W, XY, S&M) have all been on a 24-month cycle. WoTC era was between 12- and 15- month for the most part. the first non-WoTC era (the EX) was a monster 42-month cycle (July 2003 to Feb 2007)! so many sets! then, DP, HGSS and platinum would be your precursor to the modern sets where it tried to retain the vintage WoTC release character but also tweaking their new direction started in EX with the longer release timeline. although they are labeled as 3 different sets, DP, HGSS, and platinum released in a 12-month (WoTC-esque) cycle each, platinum is technically part of DP, while HGSS (and Call of Legends, itself a mythical set) was a re-release of old gen, before we were hit with BW, which ushered in the true modern era of Pokemon.

i can’t speak much to game mechanics or the video game side as much, but from my personal observation and synthesizing, this is my own definition for pokemon eras.

recap:
vintage era: 1999-2007 (WoTC + EX)
early-modern era: 2007-2011 (DP, Platinum, HGSS)
modern era: 2011-present (BW, XY, S&M, Sw&Sh)
post-modern era coming in 2022?? will we see premium products like in MTG and Sports?

edit: after seeing what people posted between when i started and finished my post, i want to add that pokemon was probably more influenced by the social media era than mtg, so the pokemon era has more ties with the overall societal changes happening over the last decade+.

[thatblastoiseguy]

@mcorey777, yeah I heard that Fossil & Team Rocket were quite plentiful in supply too. HGSS only lasted a year despite being tied to one of the more successful Pokemon games, which was pretty surprising to me.

@zorloth, what holds the ex-era back is that it’s not something a new investor would be expected to know. For sure, we’re aware of the issue of scarcity when it comes to the ex-era and that the overall supply of Pokemon cards is V-shaped with 2005 being a low point. But I feel that uninformed “investors” just tend to gravitate towards the easy to understand stuff like 1st edition or base unlimited, or the WOTC-era in general.

Separately, one could argue that the people who grew up with the ex-era should probably have entered the workforce by now, and have enough disposable income to purchase what they want. I don’t really expect a boom in growth like what we’re seeing with 1st edition base or… PSA 10 1st edition commons, but I expect that ex-era stuff will become more expensive sooner than later.

[thatblastoiseguy]

@yz2428, great point about how the business changed hands. For the initial wave of Ex stuff where they had the thick borders for the ex-es e.g. Ex Ruby & Sapphire, I heard those are pretty hard to grade as it’s easier for you to get scratches on the bottom border.

To be honest, I have my reservation about the current modern cards being turned into vintage 5-10 years down the road. Like what Zorloth mentioned, what makes the older stuff actually collectible is that it was lower in supply and people didn’t ship them off to PSA the minute they opened the cards.

For modern to grow at the same trajectory as vintage, we would also need much more collectors and players etc., although we could be at the peak of the hobby in terms of players & awareness. It’s not that we will decline, but perhaps we’ll form a plateau for a long period of time.

[zorloth]

@thatblastoiseguy

@mcorey777 , yeah I heard that Fossil & Team Rocket were quite plentiful in supply too. HGSS only lasted a year despite being tied to one of the more successful Pokemon games, which was pretty surprising to me.

@zorloth , what holds the ex-era back is that it’s not something a new investor would be expected to know. For sure, we’re aware of the issue of scarcity when it comes to the ex-era and that the overall supply of Pokemon cards is V-shaped with 2005 being a low point. But I feel that uninformed “investors” just tend to gravitate towards the easy to understand stuff like 1st edition or base unlimited, or the WOTC-era in general.

Separately, one could argue that the people who grew up with the ex-era should probably have entered the workforce by now, and have enough disposable income to purchase what they want. I don’t really expect a boom in growth like what we’re seeing with 1st edition base or… PSA 10 1st edition commons, but I expect that ex-era stuff will become more expensive sooner than later.

@thatblastoiseguy : I actually view that as a positive. The EX-era is not as inflated by non-collectors as certain eras. It’s desirable to people who collect, but not to your average non-collector.

And on your second point: that’s absolutely not true. I collected exclusively during the late e-Series and early EX-era and I’m just entering graduate school and am likely at least 3-4 years off of entering the workforce. The only reason I have hundreds of thousands of dollars in Pokemon and Magic cards is because of wise speculatory Magic purchases and early sealed product investing. I’m not saying this to pat myself on the back or to claim any sort of remarkable foresight – I’m saying this just to provide the basis for how I’ve been able to accumulate what I have. My point is: the people who grew up with the EX-era largely haven’t entered the workforce yet. And even if they have, they are still in their early stage of their careers. I believe this is largely the case with the collectors of WotC-era cards, too. The primary consumers of Pokemon cards from every era are not even close to reaching the heights of their careers. The question is whether or not they will continue (or start) collecting Pokemon cards as their careers progress. That’s a question that nobody can answer. But the signs do point to yes, if current trends continue.

[octaane]

@smpratte

@zorloth , Pokemon just has a larger collecting base. Modern sets are printed in much larger quantity, and they consistently sell. I’ve always approached mtg entirely with the perspective, “I am weird for collecting”, as most people just play. And the cards/sets are driven by playability. I wish more people would collect in mtg though.

Out of curiosity, why do you think this is the case with mtg? Are the cards pretty much primarily intended for utility in play, with collecting as an after thought? I’ve never been able to suss out why a majority of MTG play and a minority collect, while in Pokémon a majority collect and a minority play.

[yz2428]

@octaane

@smpratte

@zorloth , Pokemon just has a larger collecting base. Modern sets are printed in much larger quantity, and they consistently sell. I’ve always approached mtg entirely with the perspective, “I am weird for collecting”, as most people just play. And the cards/sets are driven by playability. I wish more people would collect in mtg though.

Out of curiosity, why do you think this is the case with mtg? Are the cards pretty much primarily intended for utility in play, with collecting as an after thought? I’ve never been able to suss out why a majority of MTG play and a minority collect, while in Pokémon a majority collect and a minority play.

think about it, the point of pokemon is to collect, both in the anime and the games, so it’s part of the DNA, it’s so natural. i mean, “gotta catch’em all”, right? MTG is a card game first.

the creator of pokemon is a bug collector…

[zorloth]

@octaane

@smpratte

@zorloth , Pokemon just has a larger collecting base. Modern sets are printed in much larger quantity, and they consistently sell. I’ve always approached mtg entirely with the perspective, “I am weird for collecting”, as most people just play. And the cards/sets are driven by playability. I wish more people would collect in mtg though.

Out of curiosity, why do you think this is the case with mtg? Are the cards pretty much primarily intended for utility in play, with collecting as an after thought? I’ve never been able to suss out why a majority of MTG play and a minority collect, while in Pokémon a majority collect and a minority play.

I know you asked Scott, but I figured I’ll give my answer also (as someone who has been heavily into collecting MTG for over a decade). The first thing to note is that there are quite a few people who collect MTG. It’s just that MTG collectors generally only collect the sets up through Antiquities (plus Legends). There aren’t that many people collecting, for instance, Fallen Empires or Weatherlight or Onslaught or what have you. It’s all about the original, lower print-run sets. Principally, Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited, which (I’m not sure how much you know about MTG, so I’ll just assume you know nothing about it) were (in effect) three print runs of the same first set. A good parallel is 1st Edition/Shadowless/Unlimited Base Set, except the Unlimited set in MTG is much rarer and more prized than Unlimited Base Set in Pokemon.

And the reason why the vast majority of people don’t collect any sets after 1994 is that there’s zero challenge associated with it. Unlike with Pokemon, if I want a PSA 10 quality card, I can just go on TCGPlayer and buy it (provided that I purchase from the correct vendors). There’s no chase. Starting with Revised, the print runs for Magic were massive. A large part of the reason why the print runs were so massive is because of limited formats. A large segment of competitive Magic requires decks to be constructed from sealed product (these are called ‘limited’ formats). So, relative to the playerbase/collectorbase, a lot more product was printed. Competitive players will sometimes do hundreds or even thousands of drafts of one set – so there is a LOT of product printed and opened.

There’s also the reason that Magic is simply a player’s game. The prices are mostly driven by what people play with. So someone who only collects without playing has to pay, in effect, a large amount for cards that are highly-priced because of their playability. So it’s tough for a collector to palate paying $500 for a Gaea’s Cradle when there’s nothing aesthetically unique about it – it just happens to be a highly playable card. It’s no rarer than some 50 cent bulk rare from the same set, which might even look cooler.

[thatblastoiseguy]

@zorloth

@thatblastoiseguy

@mcorey777 , yeah I heard that Fossil & Team Rocket were quite plentiful in supply too. HGSS only lasted a year despite being tied to one of the more successful Pokemon games, which was pretty surprising to me.

@zorloth , what holds the ex-era back is that it’s not something a new investor would be expected to know. For sure, we’re aware of the issue of scarcity when it comes to the ex-era and that the overall supply of Pokemon cards is V-shaped with 2005 being a low point. But I feel that uninformed “investors” just tend to gravitate towards the easy to understand stuff like 1st edition or base unlimited, or the WOTC-era in general.

Separately, one could argue that the people who grew up with the ex-era should probably have entered the workforce by now, and have enough disposable income to purchase what they want. I don’t really expect a boom in growth like what we’re seeing with 1st edition base or… PSA 10 1st edition commons, but I expect that ex-era stuff will become more expensive sooner than later.

@thatblastoiseguy : I actually view that as a positive. The EX-era is not as inflated by non-collectors as certain eras. It’s desirable to people who collect, but not to your average non-collector.

And on your second point: that’s absolutely not true. I collected exclusively during the late e-Series and early EX-era and I’m just entering graduate school and am likely at least 3-4 years off of entering the workforce. The only reason I have hundreds of thousands of dollars in Pokemon and Magic cards is because of wise speculatory Magic purchases and early sealed product investing. I’m not saying this to pat myself on the back or to claim any sort of remarkable foresight – I’m saying this just to provide the basis for how I’ve been able to accumulate what I have. My point is: the people who grew up with the EX-era largely haven’t entered the workforce yet. And even if they have, they are still in their early stage of their careers. I believe this is largely the case with the collectors of WotC-era cards, too. The primary consumers of Pokemon cards from every era are not even close to reaching the heights of their careers. The question is whether or not they will continue (or start) collecting Pokemon cards as their careers progress. That’s a question that nobody can answer. But the signs do point to yes, if current trends continue.

@zorloth , I should’ve explained it better, but that’s exactly my point - by purchase what they want, I mean that the people who grew up with the ex-era should at least have the financial means to start thinking about what to buy for themselves. This could range from more expensive food, to travel, to Pokemon cards. As such, growth in ex-era will slowly start to accumulate as we progress through our careers. Compare this to a few years back - any growth in the ex-era would either be from savvy ex-era people like yourself, or from the older collectors who played during that era but weren’t kids.

For me, I turned down some deals 5 years ago during my undergraduate days because I just wasn’t making money to spend on collectibles. I believe the deal was 4 cradles for USD 400. I’m currently 3 years into the workforce, and although I don’t have enough savings to buy things like trophy cards or snap cards, pretty much anything within the ex-era is still doable with my salary (which is probably average for a business undergrad).

Don’t get me wrong, it definitely isn’t the peak of the ex-era. Which is exactly why I put the pedal to the metal with regards to finishing off my ex-era collection goals this year. It’s not that this is the lowest point for the ex-era, but I feel that this is the lowest point in time where ex-era kids have the ability to start to buy up things from their childhood or things that they wished they had.

[octaane]

Thanks @zorloth, appreciate the in depth response!

[gomar]

I haven’t been a collector for modern cards for very long. Starting to get into it a bit. What do you guys think about the market right now. Has it gone up as of late with everything else and just any general tips would be helpful.

Thanks!

[qwachansey]

I recently got into modem and love love love the gold and rainbow sparkly cards. Frosmoth and Galarian Perrserker are around $40-50 mint!

[pfm]

It’s impossible to give tips when your goal is unclear

[fourthstartcg]

@gomar

I haven’t been a collector for modern cards for very long. Starting to get into it a bit. What do you guys think about the market right now. Has it gone up as of late with everything else and just any general tips would be helpful.

Thanks!

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