I think Pokemon cards from Expedition through the mid-EX Series actually have an element of collectibility that the 1999 to early-2002 cards don’t. 2003-2005 was the low-point of the hobby, and there was widespread lack of confidence about the present/future of the Pokemon TCG. So I actually think the cards from the late e-Series and early-EX Series actually may, on average, be worse-preserved than those from Base through the Neo. There were just way fewer collectors in 2003/2004 than in 2000, and there was much less optimism about the future value of cards. There were quite a few people who kept Base Set booster boxes sealed, for example, as ‘investments.’ Many more than kept, say, EX Ruby & Sapphire booster boxes sealed. So, even putting preservation aside, there’s an element of rarity that the cards from Expedition and the early-EX series have that the cards from before then don’t have. Of course, there’s also much less demand for cards from the 2003/2004-era, largely because there’s less nostalgia for it. But there’s also significantly less supply, which is why it’s a hell of a lot more expensive to collect a complete Skyridge set than a complete 1st Edition Jungle, Fossil, Rocket, Gym, or Neo set.
So while I agree that, as a general rule, people become more condition-conscious over time in hobbies, I actually think it was the reverse for Pokemon. It’s much, much tougher to find PSA 9/10 quality raw EX Emerald exs than 1st Edition Fossil holos. It was incredibly easy for me to complete PSA 8/9 quality raw sets of 1st Edition Jungle/Fossil, whereas collecting similar quality raw EX Series sets is not only much more expensive, but much more difficult.
I agree with these points you made they are excellent , but I do not agree that the value and collect ability of modern cards will never increase exponentially. I feel the huge majority of seasoned collectors in this community MASSIVELY under estimate the amount of people that actually love and collect these Pokémon cards in the world. I literally opened 8 boxes of Team Up to try and pull 2 of the cards I wanted out of the set and I pulled NEITHER ( alt Art latios/latias and hyper rare ) I ended up just buying it. There are more collectors today than in 1999. Lastly some of these modern cards’ artwork smashes early WOTC cards artwork into pieces. So to me and my personal opinion , these modern cards have a very good chance of seeing exponential growth and price increases in the years to come. There’s simply not enough to go around comfortably.
But here’s a factor that I think you aren’t weighing highly enough: in 2040, what proportion of the cards originally printed in 2020 will be perfectly-preserved? If I had to guess, 90%+. But in 2020, what proportion of the cards originally printed in 2000 are perfectly-preserved? If I had to guess, anywhere from 1 to 10%. So there are plenty of cards from the year 2000 in circulation right now. But there are a limited amount of them that are actually perfectly preserved (or even well-preserved). If every single card printed in the year 2000 was still perfectly preserved, the cards would be much less valuable. There’s currently an element of difficulty in collecting NM condition cards from 15-20 years ago. But in 2040? I don’t think there will be the same element of difficulty in collecting NM condition cards from 2020 – I think it will be very easy.
I COMPLETELY agree with everything you said. It will be much easier to find mint modern cards in the future. But I think there will be less available. And I don’t think there will be enough to go around. Look on eBay for a popular chase modern card in raw form. Truly mint copies are scooped up immediately and the rest there’s maybe 5-20 NM copies of the card for sale ? That’s a crazy low number to me. I take that into consideration. If you compare the growth of these modern cards raw and PSA 10 form , they surpass what took a large number of WOTC cards even 1st editions over 15 years to do. These modern/semi- modern cards are doing it consistently across the board. Last year you could get a large majority of 1st edition PSA 10 Gym Challenge holos for under $300. You can still get some for less than $700. Now most of the popular Hyper Rares in modern sets sell for $300-$700. CONSISTENTLY. These cards came out 1-3 years ago. There’s proof in the pudding. I’m just saying that modern cards in my opinion have a huge potential to see big price jumps and holding. You make really good points and I respect yours and others opinion. I just disagree . We will just have to wait and see.
@dbruze That’s exactly why I don’t underestimate modern. I paid $200 for a mint Hidden Fates Zard and $225 for a mint Rainbow Rare Burning Shadows Zard. $70 for Reshizard Rainbow. And $40 for Charizard Braixen Rainbow. Now look at the price on those and availability… I’m not missing out on these new Champions Path Zards. I just have to hope to hit around that $150-$225 range again to add to my collection
@zorloth@dbruze as a big guy once said, “the future is uncertain”. but i highly doubt that cards like these with all those factors i mentioned won’t grow big, unless the market crashes and everything loses value. the only two things that could prevent this card from growing exponentially are the debatable artwork and the fact that people in 2019 were more aware of the value the card has in good condition than they were in 1999, so they paid more attention to keep the card in as good condition as possible, whereas in 1999 kids were just playing with these cards on the dirty floor.
so yes, vintage cards will always be vintage cards, but the nowadays new ones will also be vintage in a few years. a 1967 ford shelby was a new and modern car compared to older cars once, i guess it’s not considered to be a new car today, but a vintage one.
not to forget that this card is only 1 year old and already sells for four figures, consistently. and the staff stamp, the charizard, the low availability (lower than some super valuable psa10 1999 cards), the rarity, the not growing pop report… the only thing this card is missing is being old… but this is the only thing of the important things (the older, the rarer, the minter, the better, right scott?) that CAN and WILL change in the future, and that’s why this card might have a huge potential. those are my thoughts on this one.
Sorry, but I still disagree that a card released in 2020 will ever be considered vintage. Cars are not a good parallel for a variety of reasons. The closest parallel is MTG. And I’ve already made the point that, for instance, Mirrodin is 17 years old and is considered Modern. But, in 2003, Alpha was 10 years old and considered vintage. But here’s another close parellel: baseball cards. Baseball cards from 1990 aren’t considered vintage. Because in 1990, collectors were highly conscious of condition and optimistic that the cards would turn out to be good investments.
People have the exact same attitude in 2020 about Pokémon cards. But this was NOT the attitude people had in 1999 or even in 2007, and certainly not in 2003, when the hobby was at its all-time low point. The simple reality is that Pokémon cards printed in 2020 aren’t organically collectible. That isn’t to say that there isn’t demand for them. But it’s to say that the circumstances surrounding their release and the attitudes of current collectors aren’t conducive to the cards ever becoming like those from the 1999-2007 era.
Here’s a challenge for those that disagree: give me an example of a single hobby where the modern-era products became organically collectible. There are a gazillion hobbies, and it’s never happened. Comic books, sports cards, MTG cards, video game collecting, movie/concert posters, and any number of other hobbies have experienced EXACTLY what I’ve stated. And Pokémon also will.
Apparently some people already think B&W is vintage. I personally consider Base-EX era vintage, but B&W came out >10 years ago so I personally don’t consider it vintage when it has 5ban FA (Though they look a lot better than S&M)
and what about people in 2040 who grew up with 2020 pokemon cards, what do you think they will buy primarely? but my question wasn’t about it getting the “vintage status” or not, so this whole discussion going in the vintage direction is kinda pointless. pokemon collecting isn’t just collecting vintage cards anymore, that’s the past for a long time already. this whole thing is growing and growing and sooner or later, almost everyone will have some “modern cards” in his collection. or do you strictly collect 1999?
My opinion is that the cut-off is the mid-EX Series (~2005-06) – basically right until the print runs started increasing. The Pokemon TCG was in a downward slump that started to reverse somewhere around 2006 – that’s when print runs began an upward slope up through today. But I think that most collectors will recognize 2007 as the cut-off point, because that was the official end of the EX Series and the start of Gen 4.
Another reason why I think the cutoff is 2007 is because that’s right around when the original Pokemon collectors reached adulthood. Pokemon was purely a children’s hobby up until there were adults who once collected it. And that happened right around 2007 – given that the demographic into Pokemon in 1999 was roughly 10 years old. So the original-era, and this can be seen in other hobbies, too, is that era where the only people intimately familiar with the Pokemon TCG were children. Once you hit ~2007, there are now adults that once collected Pokemon, and that’s the point that the vintage-era ended. This is all my opinion, of course, but there’s a wealth of empirical support for it.
They might primarily buy 2020 Pokemon cards. But there will be a glut of supply because of the current collector consciousness and the widespread awareness of the connection between condition and value and the correct preservation methods. The awareness wasn’t there in 2003, and that’s why there’s not enough supply to meet the demand. There were plenty of Pokemon cards printed in 2003. But there are NOT plenty that were perfectly preserved – and that’s what’s important. There are too many cards being well-preserved now for there to be any real collector demand for the current cards in the future. This is just my opinion, of course, though I do believe it is very well-founded. I think we might just have to agree to disagree, and wait and see what will be the case in 20 years . I hope people are still interested in Pokemon in 20 years. That’s another factor that we can’t just take as a given. We can assume that interest will sustain for at least another decade. But 20 or 30 years out is too far in the future to make a similar assumption.
I’m aware of the lack of awareness in the past, I already knew that and wrote it myself some comments before. But this is getting too general, I actually just wanted some thoughts on that particular strictly limited card which has lower availability than some 1999 cards, no matter how safely people treated the card today.
I have to say: this question occupies my mind lately. I am wondering what factors determine whether people are still interested in the Pokemon TCG 20 or 30 years from now. And especially if younger generations will enter the hobby.
My own expectation is that there won’t be many young people entering the hobby, because they did not grow up in a time where Pokemon cards where booming (as opposed to us).
Edit: the quoting did not go well, but I meant to quote your last paragraph
@ibrakadabra , don’t forget that you can have the same number of investors (with some expected attrition per year) who are consistently completing their collection goals and are probably getting wealthier as well. Sure, you’d have some drop off due to life commitments as well, but the health of the hobby will remain as long as Pokemon cards and Pokemon remain relevant to the current market.
I regard WOTC as vintage, and everything after that is modern. @zorloth , probably because of MTG, so I have a similar sentiment to you. But for Pokemon TCG, I believe they regard the current ‘standard’ sets as modern, and everything after that is somehow vintage.
How is black and white vintage? Then again, my opinion is only relevant to me haha.
. We will just have to wait and see.