The Giant English Market Thread

[zorloth]

@pfm

Reminder that the attempted “censorship” ie. Automatically converting the word bubble → bubblebath (which happened before I was a mod, otherwise I would not have stood for this OPRESSION) happened at the beginning of May 2020.

You can see for yourself.
www.elitefourum.com/t/are-we-in-a-little-bubble-for-psa-cards/27132/1
www.elitefourum.com/t/are-we-in-a-bubble/26973/1

This is the price trend for Unlimited base holos, the line is when the bubblebath joke became a thing

Let’s not try to revise history. The Great Bubblebath Debate happened 5 months before Logan Paul’s box opening. When we get back to 2019 prices, maybe then the bubblebathers can claim a victory.

I think it’s totally fair to say that Base Set was in a bubble. The market as a whole? Of course not. But no one (or at least certainly not me) has claimed the whole market is a bubble. But the people who claimed back in November/December that Base Set was in a bubble were correct. A bubble doesn’t mean that something goes to zero or that it goes back to 2019 prices. The fact that Base Set quadrupled in value and subsequently retraced back to the pre-Logan Paul prices = bubble formed that popped.

[zorloth]

@assassin5757

@zorloth

People on this forum just seem to really hate the term ‘bubble’ lol. Which I can understand — it’s pretty hyperbolic. That said, I think it clearly does apply to Base Set given that it quadrupled in value overnight and now is back to what it was before.

The only thing that was surprising to me was how much it’s retraced. I didn’t think that things were going to literally retrace back to pre-Logan Paul prices. I thought that the event would have some sort of enduring impact.

And with a PSA Pokémon card backlog in the millions (most of which is Base Set + modern), I don’t think we’re finished yet, either. For a certain segment of the market, I’d bet that we haven’t seen anything yet. I think we all know what the Pokémon card backlog at PSA consists of. And it’s not gem mint 1st Ed. WotC/EX.

I agree with you about base cards being in a bubble. A bubble bursting isn’t a bad thing unless you were looking for a quick flip and bought near the top. I prefer to make purchases when the market is in a period of stability. I’ve held off from purchasing my favorite cards which is primarily wotc base-fossil as well as anything old-back and Japanese, because the prices exploded and kept on going up at an exponential rate. Of course I didn’t want to stop collecting Pokemon so I went after cards that haven’t seen as large of rises such as various periods of post-wotc, some foreign language cards, and even modern Yugioh. Recently I started buying select graded vintage again as I personally believe they won’t go much lower. For example a few Japanese Neo holo CGC 9 sold for about 30$ recently. Precovid that was about 10-20$ for a PSA 9 at auction. A few months ago those Japanese Neo holos were selling between 80-150$. On the other hand if those Japanese Neo Holos sustained for 80-150$ for a year or two with little fluctuations I’d be comfortable buying their new price peaks. Of course cards can crash to zero or go to the moon but I just prefer to buy when things are stable or at least increasing/decreasing at a slow rate. A lot of “investing” talk in this post but as someone who is buying cards for a collection, monetary value is important to me and I don’t want to buy a card just for it to fall 75% the next month so periods of high volatility are important to consider when making purchases.

Of course. I mean, you’re talking to the person who advised people to sell during the November hype, not to buy in. There were a lot of people in this thread with the idea that Base Set was going to the moon and never coming back. What I’ve been preaching is to never buy something after it recently increased in value three or four-fold. It’s that sort of basic wisdom that has triggered quite a few people on this forum – people who evidently remain triggered.

[pfm]

@zorloth

@pfm

Reminder that the attempted “censorship” ie. Automatically converting the word bubble → bubblebath (which happened before I was a mod, otherwise I would not have stood for this OPRESSION) happened at the beginning of May 2020.

You can see for yourself.
www.elitefourum.com/t/are-we-in-a-little-bubble-for-psa-cards/27132/1
www.elitefourum.com/t/are-we-in-a-bubble/26973/1

This is the price trend for Unlimited base holos, the line is when the bubblebath joke became a thing

Let’s not try to revise history. The Great Bubblebath Debate happened 5 months before Logan Paul’s box opening. When we get back to 2019 prices, maybe then the bubblebathers can claim a victory.

I think it’s totally fair to say that Base Set was in a bubble. The market as a whole? Of course not. But no one (or at least certainly not me) has claimed the whole market is a bubble. But the people who claimed back in November/December that Base Set was in a bubble were correct. A bubble doesn’t mean that something goes to zero or that it goes back to 2019 prices. The fact that Base Set quadrupled in value and subsequently retraced back to the pre-Logan Paul prices = bubble formed that popped.

You quoted me but literally nothing you are saying here is relevant to what I said in my post

[zorloth]

@pfm

@fresco

I think that is important to note that a lot of people that came in and paid at the peak, for them, certainly is a bubble. If you had years in the hobby, most likely you couldn’t care less for retraces since your entry price point was so low that you know, most likely, they won’t go back to those prices (unless something very unusual happens).

I’m not sure what this has to do with what I’ve said here. My point is that asking “are we in a bubble?” in May 2020 is not the same thing as asking it in November 2020. It would probably be intellectually dishonest not to call whatever Logan Paul did to base set a bubble, but that is not what people were talking about in May

And who on this thread was claiming the market was in a bubble back in May? Certainly not me. Once again, a lot of outrage against people who don’t exist or at least are no longer involved with this forum.

[zorloth]

@pfm

@zorloth

I think it’s totally fair to say that Base Set was in a bubble. The market as a whole? Of course not. But no one (or at least certainly not me) has claimed the whole market is a bubble. But the people who claimed back in November/December that Base Set was in a bubble were correct. A bubble doesn’t mean that something goes to zero or that it goes back to 2019 prices. The fact that Base Set quadrupled in value and subsequently retraced back to the pre-Logan Paul prices = bubble formed that popped.

You quoted me but literally nothing you are saying here is relevant to what I said in my post

You’re right; I misread your post.

[assassin5757]

@zorloth

Of course. I mean, you’re talking to the person who advised people to sell during the November hype, not to buy in. There were a lot of people in this thread with the idea that Base Set was going to the moon and never coming back. What I’ve been preaching is to never buy something after it recently increased in value three or four-fold. It’s that sort of basic wisdom that has triggered quite a few people on this forum – people who evidently remain triggered.

If someone bought at the peak it’s a tough loss right now. If they sell now and cut their losses they can reinvest into whatever else they feel comfortable with. Stop losses are recommended for a reason. On the other hand they can hold the cards and have faith that prices will gradually increase year to year and reach new highs 10, 20, 50 years down the road and in the meantime they have a sweet collection to admire. 1st Edition base was impressive back during the original Pokemania. 1st Edition base set was still impressive to collectors during ex, dp+hgss+plat, bw, xy, and so on. Regardless of the price it’s an impressive set to have. I personally don’t seek out 1st edition because it’s not my thing but I still understand its place in the hobby.

[pichufan]

@pfm

When we get back to 2019 prices, maybe then the bubblebathers can claim a victory.

Prices don’t have to fully revert for a bubble to end. I think that belief is a big contributor to why it was turned into a joke on E4 to begin with.

Wikipedia defines a bubble as “a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.” (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble) A crash (or pop) doesn’t mean prices have to fall back to exactly what they were before, rather it’s something signified by a large drop in value. The 5 phases of a bubble as noted in the linked article are:

1. Substitution: increase in the value of an asset;
2. Takeoff: speculative purchases (buy now to sell in the future at a higher price and obtain a profit);
3. Exuberance: a state of unsustainable euphoria;
4. Critical stage: begin to shorten the buyers, some begin to sell;
5. Pop (crash): prices plummet.

My limited view (as a Pichu collector and not as a general Pokémon collector) is that we can attribute certain events to those stages:

1. Early 2020 (prices beginning to increase at a much higher rate than normal and collectors from other fields beginning to take an interest);
2. Mid-2020 (lots of pumping, little dumping);
3. Mid-Late 2020 (Logan Paul);
4. Early-Mid 2021 (we are possibly here right now);
5. ?

I haven’t changed my opinion about Pokémon experiencing a bubble since I wrote my thread you linked back in April last year. I’m not expecting prices to drop to pre-2020 levels as the benefit of all this happening is that it’s attracted a lot more people into the hobby - some of whom are sure to stick around and will provide more competition than we had in 2019.

The only people who can claim victory in a bubble are the people who sell at the peak.

[enigma]

If we can discuss pump and dumps, buyouts, retraces etc. without semantical debate then we should also be capable of discussing bubbles the same way. I don’t understand the aversion to that word here.

[smpratte]

@enigma

If we can discuss pump and dumps, buyouts, retraces etc. without semantical debate then we should also be capable of discussing bubbles the same way. I don’t understand the aversion to that word here.

Because its become an overused meaningless term: Huge price increase = bubble. Huge price decrease = bubble. Big youtuber makes a video = bubble. Pokemon center sells out = bubble. Record auction = bubble.

Honestly its difficult at this point to think of a situation that hasn’t been called a bubble. Its better if people just explain why they think something is happening.

[pbmagnet4]

@pichufan

@pfm

When we get back to 2019 prices, maybe then the bubblebathers can claim a victory.

Prices don’t have to fully revert for a bubble to end. I think that belief is a big contributor to why it was turned into a joke on E4 to begin with.

Wikipedia defines a bubble as “a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.” (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble) A crash (or pop) doesn’t mean prices have to fall back to exactly what they were before, rather it’s something signified by a large drop in value. The 5 phases of a bubble as noted in the linked article are:

1. Substitution: increase in the value of an asset;
2. Takeoff: speculative purchases (buy now to sell in the future at a higher price and obtain a profit);
3. Exuberance: a state of unsustainable euphoria;
4. Critical stage: begin to shorten the buyers, some begin to sell;
5. Pop (crash): prices plummet.

My limited view (as a Pichu collector and not as a general Pokémon collector) is that we can attribute certain events to those stages:

1. Early 2020 (prices beginning to increase at a much higher rate than normal and collectors from other fields beginning to take an interest);
2. Mid-2020 (lots of pumping, little dumping);
3. Mid-Late 2020 (Logan Paul);
4. Early-Mid 2021 (we are possibly here right now);
5. ?

I haven’t changed my opinion about Pokémon experiencing a bubble since I wrote my thread you linked back in April last year. I’m not expecting prices to drop to pre-2020 levels as the benefit of all this happening is that it’s attracted a lot more people into the hobby - some of whom are sure to stick around and will provide more competition than we had in 2019.

The only people who can claim victory in a bubble are the people who sell at the peak.

I always look forward to your analysis. The fact that you have been tracking Pichu as a baseline is a great starting point.

I waited all through 2020 deciding when a good entry point may be. Its been recently that ive been purchasing cards with caution as to where we are at.

Nothing turned me off to the hobby more than the Logan Paul open mouth Youtubers. Its really SMPratte’s platform that brought me around.

Im also of the opinion that there is no true bubble if you never sell. It really depends on your outlook is what I am getting at.

[fresco]

@enigma

If we can discuss pump and dumps, buyouts, retraces etc. without semantical debate then we should also be capable of discussing bubbles the same way. I don’t understand the aversion to that word here.

I think it traces back to the “investment” word. Those 2 words have been thrown around since years ago, what changed is the frequency and context.

They got to a point where everything and nothing is a bubble, where every single common/random card is an investment so it’s kinda hard to keep track and discuss about it in a rational way .

[enigma]

@smpratte

@enigma

If we can discuss pump and dumps, buyouts, retraces etc. without semantical debate then we should also be capable of discussing bubbles the same way. I don’t understand the aversion to that word here.

Because its become an overused meaningless term: Huge price increase = bubble. Huge price decrease = bubble. Big youtuber makes a video = bubble. Pokemon center sells out = bubble. Record auction = bubble.

Honestly its difficult at this point to think of a situation that hasn’t been called a bubble. Its better if people just explain why they think something is happening.

I do agree that the word has been perverted, but I don’t think that warrants the same judgement each time it is used without looking at context. In October, saying “LP’s box break started a bubble because he is a big youtube guy” is much different than saying today “LP’s box break started a bubble which has since popped, as shown by prices moving from a to b and now to c between x, y and z dates”.

What I’m trying to say is any word is meaningless when the people using it are using it in a way that is meaningless. But every word has meaning when used in a meaningful way, so while it is very easy to treat the term “bubble” as meaningless banter every time it is used, it is wrong to do so.

I’m sure because of your position you’ve experienced much more perversion of the word than I have, so I do see your side. Though I still think valid evidence deserves valid discussion no matter what terms are used.

[wipo5547]

Has the logan paul “bubble” burst? Yes, that shipped has sailed. The majority of cards that spiked during that craze has retraced to pre-logan prices.

Has the “bubble” that was 2020 popped as a whole? No, i think the growth from spring to early summer was organic and that a lot of the new people that joined during that time are generally in the hobby for the forseeable furture ( I myself am in that group). I don’t see things retracing back to pre 2020 levels, but i think a stable base of the prices from spring/early summer of 2020 is a level a lot of cards will fall back to.

As a small example, PSA 8 1st ed T17 has fallen from its $1200 price point back to 700-800 where it was during early/mid 2020.

[wisewailmer]

@wipo5547

Has the logan paul “bubble” burst? Yes, that shipped has sailed. The majority of cards that spiked during that craze has retraced to pre-logan prices.

Has the “bubble” that was 2020 popped as a whole? No, i think the growth from spring to early summer was organic and that a lot of the new people that joined during that time are generally in the hobby for the forseeable furture ( I myself am in that group). I don’t see things retracing back to pre 2020 levels, but i think a stable base of the prices from spring/early summer of 2020 is a level a lot of cards will fall back to.

As a small example, PSA 8 1st ed T17 has fallen from its $1200 price point back to 700-800 where it was during early/mid 2020.

the sets logan blasted to the moon were largely base - team rocket. I dont think he has influenced the prices of other sets directly at all. You could argue the growth of pokemon overall is based on him but its much clearer looking at base - rocket

[poken00b88]

@executive

Hey Hobbyists,

The bubble/bubblebath is absolutley BRUTAL right now. In certain segments, it is taking zero prisioners…

I followed some PSA WoTC 1st ed non holo rares I need to complete my sets and the cost of the card sold for how much itd cost me to grade the rare * card.

In most cases, just slightly above what I paid for a raw copy…

I’ve got so many cards in the PSA backlog that some will be worth less than what I paid for grading IF they dont grade a minimum of a PSA 9.

Lucky they’re for my own personal collection goals and were never sent off for investment purposes, otherwise Id be having a rough day haha.

Problem is still this, if most of them come back anything below a PSA 9 grade, I would have been better off buying the PSA 9 for a ‘similar’ price than grading the cards myself… That would have saved me the hassle AND reduced the risk of getting a bunch of PSA 8s or 7s back.

This is also before the countless cards are released from the PSA queue over the (estimated) next 24 months. What the heck is it going to be like in the future when the pop report explodes for alot of these high supply and easy to grade bulk.

It would be amazing to casually chat with Charlie/Churlocker over a drink or coffee, as he and his leadership team would understand the sheer volume and quality of cards that has been submitted.

Anyway, hope all of you are doing alright in this new world - it isnt for the faint hearted… Stay sharp.

Non holo/bulk cards were never really meant to be mass graded in the first place.

With the rise in grading costs across the board, I hope people get more selective with what they send in again.

It doesn’t make sense to send $2 cards and expect them to be worth hundreds.

[haggiscollects]

@executive

Hey Hobbyists,

The bubble/bubblebath is absolutley BRUTAL right now. In certain segments, it is taking zero prisioners…

I followed some PSA WoTC 1st ed non holo rares I need to complete my sets and the cost of the card sold for how much itd cost me to grade the rare * card.

In most cases, just slightly above what I paid for a raw copy…

I’ve got so many cards in the PSA backlog that some will be worth less than what I paid for grading IF they dont grade a minimum of a PSA 9.

Lucky they’re for my own personal collection goals and were never sent off for investment purposes, otherwise Id be having a rough day haha.

Problem is still this, if most of them come back anything below a PSA 9 grade, I would have been better off buying the PSA 9 for a ‘similar’ price than grading the cards myself… That would have saved me the hassle AND reduced the risk of getting a bunch of PSA 8s or 7s back.

This is also before the countless cards are released from the PSA queue over the (estimated) next 24 months. What the heck is it going to be like in the future when the pop report explodes for alot of these high supply and easy to grade bulk.

It would be amazing to casually chat with Charlie/Churlocker over a drink or coffee, as he and his leadership team would understand the sheer volume and quality of cards that has been submitted.

Anyway, hope all of you are doing alright in this new world - it isnt for the faint hearted… Stay sharp.

[admiral]

@executive

Hey Hobbyists,

The bubble/bubblebath is absolutley BRUTAL right now. In certain segments, it is taking zero prisioners…

Can you give some specific examples of specific cards in specific grades?

I want to see how bad it is

[zorloth]

@executive

Hey Hobbyists,

The bubble/bubblebath is absolutley BRUTAL right now. In certain segments, it is taking zero prisioners…

I followed some PSA WoTC 1st ed non holo rares I need to complete my sets and the cost of the card sold for how much itd cost me to grade the rare * card.

In most cases, just slightly above what I paid for a raw copy…

I’ve got so many cards in the PSA backlog that some will be worth less than what I paid for grading IF they dont grade a minimum of a PSA 9.

Lucky they’re for my own personal collection goals and were never sent off for investment purposes, otherwise Id be having a rough day haha.

Problem is still this, if most of them come back anything below a PSA 9 grade, I would have been better off buying the PSA 9 for a ‘similar’ price than grading the cards myself… That would have saved me the hassle AND reduced the risk of getting a bunch of PSA 8s or 7s back.

This is also before the countless cards are released from the PSA queue over the (estimated) next 24 months. What the heck is it going to be like in the future when the pop report explodes for alot of these high supply and easy to grade bulk.

It would be amazing to casually chat with Charlie/Churlocker over a drink or coffee, as he and his leadership team would understand the sheer volume and quality of cards that has been submitted.

Anyway, hope all of you are doing alright in this new world - it isnt for the faint hearted… Stay sharp.

I mean; it was obvious that the vast majority of PSA-graded non-holos wouldn’t hold the ridiculous prices they were selling for. I don’t think that’s evidence of a bubble; it’s just the natural consequent of how many non-holos are in existence and how easy they are to grade. I and others explicitly said this many months back (to ridicule — likely from people with non-holos in the backlog lol).

[cardstockpile]

Can we stop with the bubble/bubblebath bullshit? Base set being down is not indicative of a bubble. The term “bubble” is loaded and all it really does is spread fear, uncertainty and doubt. If you say, for example, “there was a bubble in the base set valuations that burst” - fine - but the overall market is not crashing. We are in a consolidation phase. Everything will be just fine.

[zorloth]

@cardstockpile

Can we stop with the bubble/bubblebath bullshit? Base set being down is not indicative of a bubble. The term “bubble” is loaded and all it really does is spread fear, uncertainty and doubt. If you say, for example, “there was a bubble in the base set valuations that burst” - fine - but the overall market is not crashing. We are in a consolidation phase. Everything will be just fine.

100% agree. But I haven’t seen people saying the market overall is in a bubble? There are a lot of people complaining about people calling the whole Pokemon market as a bubble but very few people actually calling the whole Pokemon market a bubble.

As usual, I agree with the majority position. It’s just that, besides Passion Executive, I haven’t seen a single person on this thread call the whole market a bubble lol. It’s always weird to see people defending against views that aren’t held by basically anyone on this forum.