You guys think we are in a little short-term bubble for PSA cards?
Due to the PSA backlog maybe supply has been constrained and COVID19 resulted in increase demand due to people staying at home with more time to shop and collect? That’s definitely has been somewhat true for me, wondering if you guys think that this has been the cause of the recent price gains for PSA items at least. Not sure about raw cards and all.
Nah
yes hurry and sell now
I mean let’s be serious, how many 9-10 candidate WOTC-EX series cards are still out there just waiting to be graded? I’m sure there are some but I doubt there is enough to make a serious impact in the prices. Will there be a retrace on some cards? Probably. A lot of the current market is being driven by factors that are arguably temporary. However, keep in mind that people said the same thing in 2016-2017 with the so-called “Pokemon Go Bubble.” Zard hit 40k then and while it stayed there for awhile, it definitely didn’t decrease in value. Some other 1st ed base cards did decrease a bit but eventually they went back up.
Scott’s video today covers this fairly well:
With the high quality stuff the demand has far exceeded the supply. You can’t even find a gold star PSA 10 anymore!
A huge reason I started buying up so many 1st ed holos (luckily before the spike) was I simply didn’t believe there were that many raw good condition cards left.
I think anyone who expects prices to return to what they were 3 months ago is in for a very rough time.
Yeah, I don’t think Pokémon is in a bubble, but rather the price spikes are due to a flood of new collectors entering/returning to the hobby while supply is scarce. Perhaps the increase in demand will fall off a bit once the world returns to ‘normal’ but many of the new/returning collectors will stick around and I don’t see any sudden increase in supply even when PSA gets back up to speed. Some items may see a slight decline but will continue their upward trend as they always have in the past.
Are we in a bubble or are we going from an undervalued market to a fair valued market? *queue x-files theme music*
There are segments of Pokemon that to this day, even with the price rises, are ridiculously undervalued when you look at the realities of distribution, printing, and grading. Some cards have gone up by 300% over the last five months and to me they’re still undervalued.
It depends what we mean by a bubble. I do think we could see some retraces in prices from these highs like we saw in some cards in 2016-2017, crystal charizard some of the gold stars for example, but that should be small and not a trend for every card. I would guess 5-10 percent retraces for many cards with some larger retraces here and there. The hard thing is predicting when that will start to happen. It is possible all of these cards will go up another solid chunk before retracing, so not buying now for those who want these cards may end up being a mistake.
That being said, I do think some people are over leveraging themselves and don’t understand the possible larger macro effects of corona on all collectible markets even one as under priced and under valued as ours was/still is (just to a slightly lesser extent). I had been saying before this happens that I can’t believe how cheap the cards are in our hobby, considering the amount of money in pokemon, the rarity and scarcity of psa 10 wotc and the popularity of the cards. I have been buying these cards non stop for the last year for that very reason. We have been due for this spike in the market for over a year but the size of the spike as well as the timing is surprising. I for one did not predict that so many people being at home and wanting comfort and nostaligia would offset the financial fears of a global recession, but that is exactly what has happened so far.
What is wonderful to see as a pokemon collector is how resilient the hobby has been so far and that speaks to the long term collectibility and value of these cards and the ability of this hobby to weather inevitable ups and downs.
I do think some specific cards are in a massive bubble. Namely PSA 10 1st Ed, Unlimited & Shadowless Base Chansey. The prices for these are ridiculous and people should really sell now before the price plummets. There’s also some ex cards I need that unfortunately are also in a bubble right now.
Chansey is not in a bubble. The prices on actual sales are reasonable. Not everything that will go through corrections is in a bubble. Especially just one specific card from base set. That’s not how bubbles work. That’s not what bubbles are.
I think you may have missed the joke…
I think we are in a bubble which doesn’t pop at least this is what I leanrt in Pokémon that the bubble doesn’t really pop its just a constant bubble, if I look back 2 years even at high prices back then which were defined as a bubble they have gone back to all times highs or have set new record prices, with that said, there is opportunity on a micro level where by u buy a card when its
had a slight rechase and made a little profit but overall the days of over paying are non existent when looking to hold onto a card for 5 years the fear of overpayin in such a young market seems to be a lack of foresight for the hobby and has been a mistake in which I’ve made a lot up till now as I only wish I (overplayed) for things back then
I’m sure people buying Micheal Jordan a 7.5k pop card for 3k were being told thats crazy but look at it now 6k almost, I think it shows how affordable even 1st Ed zard is right now being there are a lot lot rarer
Not a bubble in my opinion. I see accelerated market correction in some areas, and sporadic examples of cards which have likely increased above a sustainable price, but for the most part the demand is increasing organically. It may have been triggered by unprecedented events, but the significant majority of new demand is from people who love/loved pokemon. The gradual relaxation of the ‘lockdowns’ is not going to suddenly return the demand to 2019 levels.
It seemed clear from this forum alone in earlier discussions that a lot of collectors were ready, cash in hand, to absorb any increase in supply, and it never really happened. In fact, supply dropped and demand increased.
I do think we will see a temporary plateau of sorts in the graded card market now that PSA is back up and running, and the flurry of new demand cools off a bit, but I think we are going to see record prices broken multiple times (even moreso than has already happened!) for sealed product this year.
TLDR I have no idea what will happen but this is what I have extrapolated from my recent observations.
Is it a bubble? – Probably not. Is it likely to retrace soon? We don’t know, but there is no reason why it can’t after having such an extraordinary run. Is that a bad thing? No. Is it a permanent thing? Unlikely.
Pokemon TCG has an interesting economic trajectory with many stages where fresh money continues to flow into the hobby.
I think prices will retrace soon once the dust settles with covid as the economy has really gone down the tubes and we aren’t feeling any of the pain as yet.
But looking at the larger picture to post-recession:
I’ve attempted to identify the stages both proceeding us and in our future, and as I see them as likely to occur, because overall-all I think prices will accelerate within the next 20 years, quite drastically.
Stage 1: The initial Pokémon release – Early waves of high volume and high demand for cards, the majority of which were used for their primary purpose: to play the game.
Funding for cards came from: Allowances, Part-time jobs, Gifts
Stage 2: Pokémon franchise loses popularity - Less cards are printed and relatively few customers are interested in the game or collecting in comparison to stage 1.
Funding: Allowances, Part-time jobs, Gifts, Full-time jobs (entry)
Stage 3: Nostalgia for Pokémon attracts old and new players and collectors into the fold - the popularity of Pokémon Go ignites loving memories and gains overall public acceptance, becoming cool again. This allows many adults to return to the hobby feeling comfortable in publicly expressing their love for the franchise once again.
Funding: Allowances, Part-time jobs, Gifts, Full-time jobs
Stage 4: As more adults return to their childhood hobby, the more the supply of collector grade product is absorbed - increasing demand and in turn prices. A lot of collectors during this period have conflicting priorities between family obligations (mortgage payments, kids and other associated expenditures) that may restrict the amount of money they would like to outlay for their wish list.
Funding: Gifts, Full-time jobs
Stage 5: For many, the home will be paid off, the kids will be grown up and their lives may be slowing down. The parents of many collectors of whom initially grew up with Pokémon, will pass away which is an unfortunate but natural occurrence.
Many of those original collectors in the hobby (of course, not all) will inherit money or valuable assets as a result of their parents passing, and having already settled into their later stages of life will have the ability to spend large amounts on cards that provide them with tangible nostalgia from their childhood. This influx of boomer inheritance will likely inflate prices in a wave that will make the current market cap seem as antiquated as the cards themselves.
Funding: Gifts, Full-time jobs, Inheritance
@rainbow terrific first post! Welcome! 
i can see the gains, but i won’t ever taste them.