@rainbow, I have been curious about inheritance for a while, especially when one’s children/grandchildren aren’t interested in the hobby, and for people with no interest there’s far less sentimental attachment to a Pokemon card that was always stored away than for jewelry or watches you remember your parents wearing. We’re a long way (hopefully), but the first instance of a public high estate tax due to a massive Pokemon collection is sure to be a juicy article.
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There are big bubble and there are small bubbles. Sounds like what everyone is saying here is yes we are probably overbought and in a small bubble but long-term trajectory not a bubble.
Never would I have thought that such a nice word like “bubble” would be so triggering to me these days.
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Nothing personal and maybe I’ve been on here for too long but IMO the word ‘bubble’ needs banning from the site.
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I thought about censoring it as a joke since it’s being overused lately. Hopefully it calms down and people go back to enjoying the cards.
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Bubble and invest.
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I’m partial to ‘invest’ to be fair, and ‘stonks’. ‘Bubble’ is just synonymous of the exact same conversations and talking points over and over again to me. Like I say, maybe been here too long 
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Maybe write a script to auto-replace the word bubble with this gif, like we do for Our honorable president
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The repeating of the word bubble set me off yesterday haha
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The terminology doesn’t matter too much - point is it’s very likely many cards will fall a lot once these huge returns I’m seeing going out come back from PSA. Having talked to 2-3 of the biggest sub people/ services in the world, it is clear we are about to submit the biggest amount of cards ever to PSA. The number is above 100k Pokémon cards. I wish PSA the best of luck and also people paying these prices for some of these cards which have run 500-1000% in a few months.
Incremental new supply will go from essentially close to zero in the last few months to the largest amount of graded cards entering the market in history. It will probably take until November or so for these cards to be graded, returned and listed for sale. Worth keeping an eye on supply as even if demand stays at these levels (as people go back to work), supply is increasing in magnitudes.
Worth saying: I have a big personal position in Pokemon cards and am still very optimistic on the long term.
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If i want something I buy it if I can afford it. Simple as that past sales don’t matter what matters is what’s available. If you can’t afford something that’s “overpriced” or in a “bubble” move on. If your waiting on the “perfect price” it’s most likely never going to happen
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Can’t we just be mature and leave it?
If people can speculate wildly about very specific prices in a way that can artificially pump them, then conversations about possible bubbles should be fair game.
A lot of conversations on this forum attempt to anchor market prices on nothing more than speculation, hope and dreams. Much of which is tied to the psychology of marketing and left untamed can produce bubbles.
People will defend these goaded pumps as particular prices just being undervalued. But that is always said real bubbles, too.
Just look at bitcoin back in the day. All they did was circle jerk each other into denial.
I wish the pokemon market discussions stuck more to actual sales data in order to keep in mind that those prices set a target range and isnt always tethered to the last highest price.
Speculation about price increases is fine but they shouldnt be granular enough to hype the next price increase, stating immenence.
You just need to look at the charizard thread to see that FOMO or fear of missing out for those unaware, is being produced.
Many users want people to feel scared that they will miss out on particular cards if they don’t act now. In many instances, this is because they are heavily invested in the particular cards and therefore are directly invested in the outcomes.
In fact we are all heavily invested. None of us want prices to go down. But sometimes they do and that’s healthy.
I dont think we should become irrationally triggered.
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Long answer: It’s interesting to see that in every uptick in prices over the years, the words “manipulation” and “bubble” always come up. In actuality, the more sought after cards (1st Ed Base, Gold Stars, Trophies, Charizards) are still undervalued for what they stand for in this hobby despite record breaking prices. When you’re new or eternally salty, you have short term vision until more knowledge and experience is gained. So no, we are not in a bubble.
Short answer: Also no.
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Don’t confuse underappreciated with undervalued. Markets determine value.
Cards aren’t the same as stocks. Stocks have the ability to perform. Where undervaluing is tethered to a metric of performance.
Being undervalued could be in relation to price when measured against earnings, for example. Where the value should be perceived as higher due to the direct income stream it provides.
Cards, on the other hand, are stores of wealth. They don’t perform. They are valued at whatever the market efficiently determines.
They can be underappreciated given certain populations etc. But again, they are valued at whatever people are willing to buy and sell at and on that metric alone.
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Exactly! I think people get too caught up in the moment of “did I get the best deal” when buying stuff, which is always a smart move to try to get the best deal you can. However, I agree with @mcorey777, if you really like/want something then you should weigh the pros and cons and if it is in your best interest go ahead and buy it. All this bubble talk is essentially trying to predict the market to time when to buy and sell, which we all try to do but when it comes to collecting you should get what makes you happy and buy within your means. If you overpay for an item that you really want and will cherish, then it is not a bad deal as in the long run the price will most likely increase. I’m not trying to throw shade or anything of the sort, as these discussions are always interesting to get everyone’s different perspectives on the topic, but at the end of the day…we are all winners, because we are doing what we love!
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What mcorey said. If a card with low pop comes up for sale, if the price works, I buy it. Next time that card comes up, it’s usually at a higher price. And you never know when it will come up again. If it’s at a lower price, then so are other cards I want 
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I have very mixed feelings about the ‘bubble’ after one of my recent auctions ended. I’m actually in disbelief still that they actually paid for the card at the ending price.
www.ebay.com/itm/164179764758?ViewItem=&item=164179764758
Unlimited. Not even a 1st edition. Unlimited.
From my memory, these discussions only come up when prices go up. During the times prices are dropping very few people talk about it. There’s the occasional thread, but not the 5-10 on the first page we see now.
When the discussion is reversed you see the same people defending the prices going up keeping with the same message, the price drops are temporary. The people that often talk about bubbles and and cards being overpriced are usually gone when the market crashes. I could be wrong, but to me it’s either the case of people being invested in the hobby vs those that aren’t.
People that aren’t invested are looking for a reason to get out, and a bubble is a good time to do so. People that are invested in can make mistakes, but they learn and the next time they’re the ones saying the market isn’t in a bubble too.
I’d love to know who’s been registered to efour for over four years and also thinks the market is in a bubble?
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That’s a really good observation!
Being affected by rain doesn’t usually enter daily conversation unless it is raining though, either, because it is the subject matter that suits the context of the circumstances. I mention this because I don’t know why people would talk about being concerned about heightened prices if it wasn’t happening to the market.
If you want to highlight that people don’t typically discuss decreases in prices as often, when they occur, then that would seem to make sense because most people aren’t concerned at that point about whether they feel comfortable entering into expensive positions after prices have already retraced to some extent. The range has already been tested and they aren’t buying in at the top.
But if we saw the percentage gains seen here in reverse as percentage reductions from their starting point, I can only imagine many people would be very concerned and largely uncomfortable.
Let’s face it, its human nature that most people don’t like extremes as they represent uncertainty. This is true for many things we experience in life.
There is nothing wrong with prices increasing in and of themselves. It’s the preferred and logical direction. What I personally don’t like, is increased prices as the result of spruikers utilising unnecessary and underhanded FOMO tactics, like the market is some never-ending auction house that only ever ascends in price. It’s not realistic and it is in this light that I can see why many people like to bandy around the bubble term.
It’s not a stretch to see the psychological precursors for a bubble are at work.
In an already recently inflated market.
We hear things such as:
“You will be priced out”
“You never know when this will be available again”
For those unfamiliar with bubbles:
www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bubble.asp
But a bubble doesn’t mean the asset becomes worthless. It could mean that sudden gains in the past few weeks retrace and the market is stagnant for a time.
Who knows, though?
I don’t think it is a bubble. I think discussion around why it isn’t a bubble is healthy though.
To anyone reading this, I apologise for another wall of text.
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