Are we in a little Bubble for PSA Cards?

Market
,
41

I forgot to mention a few reasons for why I think it is unrealistic to have expectations of continuing to only going up in the short term in the current market. These reasons are solely based around contextual circumstances:

Covid Hit

Peak capacity of interest was met as people needed distractions from life and everyone interested in the hobby focussed on everything available at the same time and decided they wanted to purchase things. Because everyone had this same idea, you ended up with a similar mentatlity and outcome to panic buying in the supermarkets.

PSA was closed. Less supply for certain graded cards gave an immediate appearance of scarcity.

As more people are able to draw their attention back to life outside of the hobby, more will lose interest and the sense of urgency that came with it.

More supply will become available and pricing will likely ease somewhat as a result. Just as toilet paper is now available and prices, at least in my area, have normalised.

But anyway it is 3am and I need sleep.

42

@rainbow, You are saying a lot of vague statements. ā€œunderhanded tacticsā€, ā€œfomoā€, what specifically does that refer to?

Also boxes have done nothing but increase for the past 5 years, and no one complains. Yet some cards recently increase, significantly less than boxes, and people have said bubble more in the past week than the previous year.

3 Likes
43

A whole lot of this in the thread

1 Like
44

Iā€™m betting most people are adjusting their beliefs according to what they are most personally invested in. Most people in the hobby have investments in PSA graded cards, but many people do not have much or any sealed product. So since most people have PSA cards they are reacting out of fear of their cards being unable to maintain stability at the increased prices, instead of logically and rationally realizing there are MANY other pokemon cards, products etc. that have been surging for a long time. People tend to often have tunnel vision in this hobby and only pay attention to cards they personally own so itā€™s the only factor they structure their beliefs around, which inevitably leads to irrational ā€œbubbleā€ talk continuously. Thatā€™s my take!

45

As someone who owns a lot of cards but not much sealed product, I have always said that I think sealed product is the better investment. (The reason I chose the cards and not the sealed product was because as a collector I like the cards better.)

But thinking of cards and sealed product as being two separate camps misses the point. In general, as one rises and falls the other rises and falls.

Strictly from an investment perspective, if I own the individual cards I would want the price of the boxes theyā€™re found in to increase too. Theyā€™re interconnected.

Thatā€™s why @smpratte keeps bringing up the point about how funny it is that people pretty much stayed silent as the price of sealed product rose astronomically but are making a much bigger fuss over things now when the prices of the cards inside those boxes finally started increasing. In many ways what weā€™re seeing now was a predictable yet delayed reaction.

4 Likes
46

I completely agree and am in the same boat as you are. Iā€™d also personally like to have more sealed product, but am atm priced out of the boxes that I would like to purchase for now. The main point I was trying to imply was that many people probably donā€™t notice the price shift in sealed product as much because their eyes are only glued to the stuff they have (PSA cards mainly). Obviously this isnā€™t logical to focus and make decisions based solely on only what you have and not the rest of the market, which makes for some seriously funny notions and comments when people freak out about PSA cards doubling while when boxes are quadrupling nobody bats an eye.

2 Likes
47

@ldubbs Good points. I know me personally Iā€™m in the raw card camp. It takes the longest for price changes to hit the ungraded cards. I have 4 psa 1st editions and no sealed product. But when prices go up it excites me. I donā€™t get upset. I feel like this is something we should just embrace as a community :slight_smile:

48

But it doesnā€™t reflect as much as it should actually, i mean the price of boxes vs individual cards. From vintage to modern, the boxes are super expensive and the majority of cards inside arent. Either the cards inside are undervalued or the heavy hitters are overvalued .

1 Like
49

I think i have been very cogent in my posts.
Underhanded tactics to make sales by using methods such spruiking FOMO to close deals, indicating that price increases like those we have currently been experiencing are normal. When the circumstances surrounding much of the most recent price increases have been anything but normal and wonā€™t be sustainable at the current rate (not to be confused with long-term growth, as i have clearly expressed earlier). A lot of growth was fortuitous on the back of covid but very inorganic and unlikely to be sustained in the immediate future. as now the market is becoming fatigued. Most people canā€™t sustain their recent rates of expenditure and that is expected.
Why would people complain about the increases of boxes? I donā€™t think anyone is complaining about the prices of boxes or PSA cards, neither, but they are becoming cautious of being sucked into a frenzy.
Boxes are expected to rise at a relatively increased rate. First off, they are consumables. People open them and the supply pool becomes increasingly smaller. The effect of this is actually a slow but noteable increase in the PSA pop pool. This in conjunction with more collectors grading their old sets from storage, make Boxes easy to differentiate in order to discern that boxes are great standalone investment performers. Sure, demand will outpace these increases in supply of PSA cards, but the boxes are literally evoling into psa cards. The order of operations is clear. They donā€™t make any more boxes - decreasing supply. Investment grade card pool - stays the same. Demand is there for both.

Boxes are not very cost effective to open, but for many, money making is not their utility. They do it for the experience. Whether that monetised or not, they want to open the box.
I donā€™t think trying to obfuscate discussions around the market or making particular words taboo is very healthy or mature. Yet here we are.
Seems more like a worried attempt to avert attention to me. As the saying goes, where there is smoke there is usually fire. So if people have concerns, they are likely valid as the majority of the market is based on perception anyway.
We all claim to have confidence in the long term future of our cards, so what difference does it make? Unless we buy and sell full time for a living, it shouldnā€™t affect us greatly. I know i donā€™t. You donā€™t either, right?
Anyway. If realistic conversations about the market arenā€™t enjoyed i guess i will go back to a non-paticipatory role and resume lurking.

4 Likes
50

Just wanted to say I enjoy reading your posts rainbow! Like jonandek, itā€™s nice to see new comparatively new forumers speaking in a lucid manner and sharing distinct and new insights. Jonandek is more bullish and he has his own perspective which I think too are very well supported

When I read the forums, no offense but sometimes it reminds me of the casual study that found in some instances, ā€œnon-expertsā€ were better at forecasting future than experts

Not to diss any of the accumulated knowledge of the 10 year veterans here, but talking about bubblebathbathbathbathbaths should be fair game, the same way talking about new normals is treated.

Btw in 2017/2018 when prices went up 3x for base set 1st holos (mewtwo was selling for 5k+ at one point), everyone talked about new normal and scarcity and premier set and I recall being put on a stake for calling it a bubblebathbathbathā€¦at that time I only started collecting for a few months so of course I was the ā€œidiot that knew nthā€. Prices dropped quite a lot after that for 1st base set and three years later is climbing back up. The same story could be happening for some wotc holos outside of base now. Recall the shadowless boom and the 50%+ retraces? Shadowless has always been scarce but it wasnā€™t spared from declining after a parabolic price increase

Pokemon isnā€™t like oil where oil prices go up and production follows and prices go downā€¦thatā€™s why I own alot of cards. but in the near term who knows?

We saw the perfect case for price increases driven by explosion in demand and contraction in supply over the past month (new buyers coming in, covid-2019 driving online shopping and supply restricted from suspended psa operations), and we might just see a perfect case of price declines from demand fatigue and supply response over the next few months (unsustainable to many peopleā€™s pockets, speculator demand dropping out if prices fall, psa resuming operations, increased number of collectors shipping their non core collections to pwcc and other auction houses to take advantage of record prices)

Good luck to all! To me. if prices go up by 20% my portfolio value has gone up and I can slow down purchasing / even selldown some stuff, if prices go down my 20% I can buy moreā€¦if itā€™s a secular growth story long term, itā€™s possible to keep winning as long as you adapt to the situation and stay rational

P.S. is it just me or do bubbles now have autocorrect to bubblebathbathbath? In the spirit of fun,how about an autocorrect function for newnormallololol?

2 Likes
51

No veteran is trying to discourage dialogue. If anything we are in the threads responding and having a conversation. I just donā€™t subscribe to generalities. And no one knows the future, veteran or novice.

Overall I personally donā€™t care about prices, and will adapt to any market, bear or bull. So that is why I donā€™t understand, or perhaps take slight offense to ā€œunderhanded tacticsā€. As I think it undermines not only the conversation but the core of this site and hobby that arenā€™t doing any of that nonsense.

1 Like
52

gotta take your cake and eat it tooā€¦can always read pass the generalities and see what point is trying to be madeā€¦Underhanded tactics do exist, but also well meaning ones that could come across as underhandedā€¦think this is just a misunderstanding

Anyway i pretty much agree with how you and the rest of the mods are handling it. so far there has been reminders for everyone to stay civil which is great

on veterans, Scott i relied on your patron advice 3 years ago when i just started and made a couple of hundred grand since so thatā€™s the last thing i would wanna do

2 Likes
53

Iā€™ll take that commission check :wink:

But seriously I enjoy the dialogue. Even the disagreement; it gives me another perspective!

3 Likes
54

Do I believe there will be a decline in prices as things normalise? Yes but only to a small extent to that of which PSA supply, demand normalises somewhat.

What I do think is this has added a lot of collectors back into the market from the old days, as well as surplus income from those not spending on travel, drinks, going out and various other activities.

By me simply not driving to work or using public transport, thats saved me enough in the UK alone to buy a nice PSA 9 WOTC 1st edition cardā€¦the impact felt to me is in effect nothing.

Fundamentally I have been in and out of collecting/buying/selling cards since 2007, I remember mint condition sets 1st edition WOTC going for peanuts even then, shinings were a fraction of the price, gold stars in my opinion werent even much of a thing. I then look back a few years later and noticed the cards doubling/tripling in value, this is when i started to slowly add to my collection, and its been the same ever since.

My views whenever i saw big spikes in prices that the market is simply overheating, yet the prices have only ever gone up since the last 13 plus years from my views and experiencesā€¦so in a nutshell, we may be in some sort of short term bubble, but all you will be doing at this point is what a lot of stock investors say which is trying to time the marketā€¦its something you can never do. So why bother when you know all product will get more and more scarce over time with demand increasing over and over.

If you feel it is a bubble now, thats the same feeling people had multiple times over the years, in all honestly the supply of some of these cards are so short that you cant even have a bubble because they hardly ever hit the market.

Im not talking exclusive promos or trophys or anything like that but 1st edition psa 10 WOTC cards, some of the pops of these are under 100, many gold stars, shinings, crystals, Neo Holos are all in low popā€¦its only a matter of time before these cards eventually remain in serious collectors collections and dont budge for years at a time.

In a nutshell - buy the cards you like but dont overstretch yourself financially, enjoy the hobby, if you treat it as a business thats cool too, but never try to time the market because it just wont happen.

2 Likes
55

Testing for science

bubble

Edit: ok itā€™s true

4 Likes
56

I think weā€™re in a ā€œI wish I bought earlier bubblebathbathā€ if not idk why it matters bubblebathbath no bubblebathbath it only effects you if you let it. What others think doesnā€™t matter if you just buy what you enjoy. Everyone talks of fear of missing out. Maybe this is fear I already missed out. At the end of the day I can care less if people think prices are cheap or overpriced. If weā€™re in a bubblebathbath or no bubblebathbath I can still care less. I buy what I want. Others opinions or ā€œhypeā€ doesnā€™t come into my buying decisions. What do people wait till a card is talked about before they decide they want it? The other thought process is if you want something that bad that it makes you salty you missed out then why didnā€™t you buy it sooner. (Not aimed at any one person Iā€™m just coming to the conclusion people that insist bubblebathbath or overpriced are simply jealous or salt-tastic they missed out haha. And yes I just came up with the word Salt-Tastic. Itā€™s been copy righted and trade marked haha

57

psa 7 1st Ed zard sold for 5k thats pretty high lol

58

I happen to really want that card and 7 is the grade I was shooting for but honestly at this point I think Iā€™ve been priced out of that card. But thatā€™s ok I simply enjoy my unlimited one :slight_smile: maybe one day Iā€™ll be making a ton of money and Iā€™ll go back for it. If not im ok with that

59

I donā€™t think there is a bubble. I was merely defending others rights to question it. I do think the market as a whole has dashed and will need to walk for a while before it can run once again and I do think it is likely that some parts of the market will retrace.

I think it is great that prices show strength, but who knows what the longevity of that continuing at all time highs is, given covid affecting the market. Iā€™m happy that the neo holos have increased. But I am also cognisant of many collectors not really paying much attention to getting these cards graded previously, as there hasnā€™t been that much of an incentive or rush to get them done previously, at least in my opinion. Speaking from experience, as I myself have all of the 1st edition neo sets in what I consider to be pristine gem-mint condition as raws and have yet to grade them. All psa 10 worthy candidates, pedantically selected by me at the time and inspected again only this week. My point is that I doubt I am alone in this, and that PSA will likely instantly receive an influx of submissions for these suddenly pricier cards.

I completed my WOTC collection 10 years ago. No salt here. Any acquisitions to my collection these days are purely for investment in the long term and consist primarily of sealed boxes. I donā€™t collect modern for hobby purposes and am very private about my collection.

I will say that market waves are worth identifying though because they allow people to maximise potential profits, whether flipping or not. I donā€™t flip, but I know all flippers that make profit are very aware of the opportunity costs of sitting on products that take longer to move. Flippers often get frowned upon and I think it is undue as they provide the market with more sales data to effectively track trends.

2 Likes
60

@rainbow Your point about not many people previously grading cheap cards is definitely valid. Could also be the same reason when I buy raw cards certain ones didnā€™t have a ton on the market. Which all makes sense. And yes what you said is true growth is healthy for the hobby. Your point about people possibly buying slower is valid as well. Iā€™m suffering some income losses myself due to convoid so I canā€™t buy like I normally do. So the economy in general should eventually play a role. Who knows if the economy itself will bounce back quick or not. Itā€™s just refreshing to know Pokemon hasnā€™t took a huge hit like everything else did. Probably another reason i defend prices. Iā€™m not selling anything Iā€™m just a math guy and i go off pull rates and box price which equals to cheap for literally every card from wotc to modern. But Iā€™m not complaining. You do make some good points but we will see what happens either way Iā€™m happy. If your happy thatā€™s all that matters. Also sounds like you have quite the collection congrats :slight_smile: