So as others have stated, the success or failure of Lorcana doesn’t depend on playability, popularity, collect ability, rarity or any other adjectives I could use, it ALL depends on how Disney and Ravensburger treats their card game.
One main reason why Pokemon is so successful is because of how Pokemon has meticulously crafted their IP and the surrounding subsecs: TCG, Video Game, Manga, TV Show, Culture, exc.
In a sense, buying a pokemon card is pretty much buying into the “Stock” of Pokemon. Where if Pokemon is riding high and the IP is as strong as it can get, your cards are very liquid or even more valuable than before. And if Pokemon falls off a cliff, your cards are very ill-liquid and lost lots of value.
I am not someone who collects Lorcana (and probably never will unless the wife is interested) but I would say it is doing pretty well and have so much POTENTIAL. But in a lot of places and IP’s, that potential could be squashed out.
I would say the biggest risk you are bearing is the future outcome of Lorcana. Where in 2004-2005, Pokemon hit a low point and in the US, WOTC sold one of the Strongest IP’s because they weren’t hitting their bottom line and wanted to pay off some debt. Fast forward 20 years and we can see how “dumb” that decision was. But at the time, it was what the shareholders wanted and what they felt was the right thing to do.
I think of Lorcana bits a low point, that they would seriously consider letting the TCG go and right it off as a phase that they gain a lot of extra capital from. They still have the Movies, TV Shows, Disney parks, and a lot of other things that would make a lot of money instead of just a TCG.
And on that scenario, it would be considered a “Dead TCG”.
To me, Lorcana and Disney doesn’t seem like they can stand the rest of time due to the stretch of the IP to the card game. Where in Pokemon, the Video Game, Manga, and even the TV show all have hints of the TCG behind them. It is more intertwined with the IP than just making a TCG off of a whim.
Yes these D23 cards could be the next shadowless 1st Ed Charizard, but at the same time, it could just be yet another warning of the current market speculation and fomo.
For anyone spending globs of cash on Lorcana D23 cards that is purely for speculation and future value, please consider the alternative and “safer” investment of liquidating your child’s education funds for 78 sealed cases of 151.