Speculating Disney's Lorcana in 2024

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Hey all!

Something that has shown up on my “investment” radar is Disney’s Lorcana. At first glance it looks like a big win due to the ridiculously strong Intellectual property of the brand itself. Secondary market demand looks high. And the playable game seems to be pretty good.

So, while lots of green flags, I do have to take a look at the risks involved with Lorcana. I did a bit of digging and found a good article warning against Lorcana from an investment standpoint, and of course we have to acknowledge floppy taco Rudy and his thought process. I will note at the time of writing this article there are several YouTube videos discussing the currently crashing price of sealed product.

I must agree with a number of the points being made about Lorcana currently. Disney has already made a statement that they will be reprinting The First Chapter, and it won’t be distinguishable from the first print run. I will note at the time of writing this the second print run appears to be unclear to me as to when, or if it has already happened. This by itself should crush the secondary market, as Disney attempts to utterly destroy the hoarders, scalpers and “investors” balance it’s first real attempt at a TCG.

Personally, I applaud this move by Disney as they are thinking long term making this move. The game itself must survive if it is to have any collectability whatsoever. Should the game be around AND in good competitive shape in 3-5 years, you’ve likely got yourself a really great collectable.

So, my current speculation? If you have ANY product at all be it sealed, singles, raw, graded or whatever from a major printing run, you’re likely in for a tough time. I can see the market falling off very quickly especially over the coming months. The only exception I see here is the D23 varieties of cards.

Strong points made so far about the D23 cards is that they are in fact the “true” rookie cards for Disney. They are distinguishable from the rest of the main printing runs, and did in fact come out first. Auction prices seem to confirm that these cards are a really great pick up at around 1500-7500 each (depends on card). With a bit of data showing upwards trends, while everything else seems to be slipping.

If I was made of money I would focus my efforts on D23. I think these cards are most likely to be the equivalent of a modern day First edition base set Charizard, Blue Eyes White Dragon or Black Lotus.

I guess we’ll just have to watch and find out. Anybody here have thoughts on Lorcana?

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Almost unrelated, but why does this has the Charizard tag??? It feels out of place

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Great question, I didn’t add it, maybe a slip of the mouse?

I’ll see if I can’t get that out of there.

In the meantime, topic at hand? Thoughts? Anything to generate discussion?

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Just get a First Chapter Elsa Enchanted and call it a day. Check back every 5 years.

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Be very careful. Most TCGs do not make it long-term. It’s important to remember that this is a Ravensburger product, not a Disney product per se. Strong IPs and genuine excitement can be mismanaged and destroyed by third-party corporations.

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Personally have no interest and I’d think it’s a hugely uphill battle as although the Disney IP is incredibly strong, there’s no organic desire to collect these cards outside of hope for pokemon like stonking. I’d guess the vast majority of people buying the products aren’t kids who feel a strong attachment to the characters and are instead speculators. Without the organic growth it’s insanely hard to sustain any kind of long term price strength.

Maybe the D23 cards buck that trend being the ‘rookie’ cards with already established character recognition, but if the house below crumbles, I’d assume those also end up in the gutter.

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I really enjoy Disney, but own zero Lorcana cards. I do have some of the Upper Deck Disney Treasures boxes (will I ever get a sketch card? Signs point to no).

I anticipate ending up with some Lorcana cards in the future as a Disney fan, but it’s not something I would speculate in.

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Of the biggest TCGs today, ironically most don’t rely on a strong existing IP. MTG and Yugioh are both primarily card games. Even the Pokemon TCG developed alongside the IP from the beginning.

And on the other side, there are endless examples of dead or dying TCGs that are rooted to popular IP. Notable examples are Harry Potter, Final Fantasy, even DBS seems to be falling off. One Piece seems to be doing really well but we will see if that interest sticks.

The point is IP is not really a great indicator of success. I think a ton of people want Lorcana to be the next thing, so they can be on the ground floor. I think the same people justify their emotions by saying Disney is too big to fail. I think it’s way more speculative than people give it credit. The average person interested in Lorcana has an LLC instagram account and a youtube account that says this is not financial advice in every video description. I just don’t see any excitement for the product outside of how investible it is. Even the discussion on e4 revolves primarily on financial speculation.

You can still make money off a dead/dying TCG so it’s not like there’s zero potential. But I think there’s far less risk to just blindly buy boxes of the next Pokemon set than to speculate on Lorcana

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For me you can sum it up immediately after The First Chapter was reprinted.

People rushed to find a way to identify any way that the first print was a first edition. People hoarding sealed boxes danced with joy when they apparently found a way.

People graded first print booster packs and despite PSA not identifying them as such they are selling for a lot more already.

It’s not a long term game, it’s a long term hold. And that is probably down to people expecting a 1st edition charizard return.

It’s not a healthy long term for a game. And if the game can’t flourish then it’ll never gain traction beyond being hoarded in a cupboard.

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I’m extremely bearish on Lorcana. I don’t see the appeal or the concept behind the game it self. IMO metazoo will outperform over lorcana which is saying something bc metazoo is dead.

Plenty of TCGs have tried and failed even ones backed by big names. If you look at the target audience of 95% of TCGs you’d have to wonder why they’d chose Lorcana over MTG, Pokemon, Yu-Gi-Oh. Even One Piece and Weiss Schwarz seem to be doing all right even if it’s not a real competitive game to play. (Mainly collected bc of the art).

Personally I’d rather keep spending money on Pokemon and the stock market than Lorcana. It’s too early to really tell how it’ll do over the next few years. I don’t really see the point in buying it now when there’s so many better options with better security to put money in.

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My girlfriend, who supports my Pokémon lifestyle, found Lorcana one day when I dragged her to a local convention. When she saw it, she went nuts. This was 2-3 months ago. She “collected” Pokémon cards but really did it to support me and focused on Komiya arts because she really likes his drawings.

She now has completed the First Chapter entirely with the exception of all of the Enchanteds (think of Enchanteds as the mega hit)

She has pulled a few of those (not the crazy expensive ones) and recently bought the Alice in Wonderland enchanted for a little over $400 that went toward a trade. She had wanted this card badly and had to explain while its noble to want to pull Enchanteds, sometimes it’s easier to just buy the card outright as packs tend to retail for 6-7 dollars in some places (I’ve bought her a ton out of support)

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They just launched regional competitions that have sold out instantaneously (they need to greatly improve their system) and just hosted their first “championship” event at local TCG stores where you could have won a Stitch enchanted if you won.

She has a box of First Chapter and Into the Inklands (third set) she has built a community of friends on discord, similar to e4, and I just don’t see her stopping anytime soon. I honestly couldn’t be happier for her. I don’t collect it at all but have attended local events to support her. I think Lorcana is healthy and doing well, but realistically I need to see the next 6-8 set releases before I can see it be a legitimate contender in the TCG space. It definitely has a great shot.

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I can’t be the only one that as I read this I thought ‘man I wish I had a boyfriend as supportive as gengarbrigade’ only to remember I’m straight and married to a woman.

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lol

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Opened 3 packs, pulled two enchanteds (Aurora/Bell) and sold both as I dont care for the cards.

My brain tells me to sell as prices have gone up so much, so fast - but my stomach tells me it could be moonbreon round 2.

High pop but high demand, so price outpaces expectations.

@smpratte older, minter, rarer, better saying doesn’t apply on occasion

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So as others have stated, the success or failure of Lorcana doesn’t depend on playability, popularity, collect ability, rarity or any other adjectives I could use, it ALL depends on how Disney and Ravensburger treats their card game.

One main reason why Pokemon is so successful is because of how Pokemon has meticulously crafted their IP and the surrounding subsecs: TCG, Video Game, Manga, TV Show, Culture, exc.
In a sense, buying a pokemon card is pretty much buying into the “Stock” of Pokemon. Where if Pokemon is riding high and the IP is as strong as it can get, your cards are very liquid or even more valuable than before. And if Pokemon falls off a cliff, your cards are very ill-liquid and lost lots of value.

I am not someone who collects Lorcana (and probably never will unless the wife is interested) but I would say it is doing pretty well and have so much POTENTIAL. But in a lot of places and IP’s, that potential could be squashed out.

I would say the biggest risk you are bearing is the future outcome of Lorcana. Where in 2004-2005, Pokemon hit a low point and in the US, WOTC sold one of the Strongest IP’s because they weren’t hitting their bottom line and wanted to pay off some debt. Fast forward 20 years and we can see how “dumb” that decision was. But at the time, it was what the shareholders wanted and what they felt was the right thing to do.

I think of Lorcana bits a low point, that they would seriously consider letting the TCG go and right it off as a phase that they gain a lot of extra capital from. They still have the Movies, TV Shows, Disney parks, and a lot of other things that would make a lot of money instead of just a TCG.
And on that scenario, it would be considered a “Dead TCG”.

To me, Lorcana and Disney doesn’t seem like they can stand the rest of time due to the stretch of the IP to the card game. Where in Pokemon, the Video Game, Manga, and even the TV show all have hints of the TCG behind them. It is more intertwined with the IP than just making a TCG off of a whim.

Yes these D23 cards could be the next shadowless 1st Ed Charizard, but at the same time, it could just be yet another warning of the current market speculation and fomo.

For anyone spending globs of cash on Lorcana D23 cards that is purely for speculation and future value, please consider the alternative and “safer” investment of liquidating your child’s education funds for 78 sealed cases of 151.

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I feel this.

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To me the biggest red flag is the absolute bag fumbling of organized play. They had lightning in a bottle, but they waited a year to launch official tournaments. Anecdotal, but Lorcana at every LGS I attend has declined 80%+ from peaks. A tournament circuit launched earlier could’ve captured more of that initial interest. The biggest tournament recently was an online 10k (record prize pool, lowest barrier to entry) and only had 300 something players. Lorcana Challenge has its first big event in Atlanta in May. Maybe that will change the game. But I don’t think there can be an investable TCG without it also being a successful, interesting, competitive CG. Competitive events are a completely different business than printing cardboard, and Ravensburger has no experience in this area. We will see.

If the investment isn’t in the potential of the TCG and mostly in the power of the IP itself, I think vintage Disney offers a far stronger value proposition in terms of genuine rarity, condition rarity, and history - and plenty of banger unique artwork. Most vintage/pre-war Disney cards can be had in mid grades for less than most of the Lorcana chase cards raw. It certainly doesn’t have the same modern flashiness or desirability, and there is a good amount of it out there hiding in closets and basements. But that’s one drop compared to buckets of Lorcana.

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This.

Pokemon is fun to collect, fun to play, and easy enough to identify strong vs weak investments if you’re into that.

I picked up some Lorcana starter decks and boosters and played at my LCS once…and haven’t bought any since. The card art is meh so the want to collect is nonexistent. The playing experience is meh. I wanted to like Lorcana but ended up feeling nothing towards it after trying it out.

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Can’t tell if you disagree or agree

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Why do you think there is no organic desire?

For one, the greatest asset is not kids themselves, but the Disney fans.

I’m not sure what Disney’s previous efforts were like in the CCG space, but this has to be the best yet? While I don’t like a lot of the art that seems too digital, it certainly tries to be in the vein of what the art is like or what people expect the art to be in TCGs today.

Some of them are stunning and I wouldn’t mind picking them up if they were available locally and not exclusive to some countries.

The Enchanteds are way too expensive for me to ever justify those though and they don’t even have texture but some of the best art so far is on those cards; Kida, Tinkerbell, Ursula.