8/31/21 Hey everyone it’s been about a month and a half since the last update. I started travelling a lot and school started back up so I pushed this thread to the back of my mind. I want to hear everyone’s thoughts of the card as it currently is and what we think about the future of it. Seems my past prediction that the <14% psa 10 pop not budging was true and that the card still remains to be very difficult to grade.
9/13/21 Happy 2 week update everyone! Hope everyone is still finding enjoyment in the hobby, I’ve been starting to do some research on BW era shiny UR cards and I’ve been loving it! Anyways, lets see how our favorite mail man is doing this time of year.
POP.
PSA 9- 2344 (68.34%) +30
PSA 10- 482 (13.85%) +13
Total POP- 3,447 +61
eBay Data.
PSA 10
Most Recent Sale: $870 (BIN) 8/8/21
Lowest Currently listed: $830
PSA 9
Most Recent Sale: $219 (9/12/21)
Lowest Current listed: $179
11/19/21 I cant believe it’s been 2 months already! Decided to step back and look at this from a larer scope to see what the card had done in 1/6 of a year. I believe this could be a turning point with a lot of the cards coming back from PSA and we finally see a stable price. Be sure to let me know what y’all think
Most Recent Sale: $501 (BIN) 11/14/21
Lowest Currently listed: $649 (however it is a very weak 10 with noticeable bad cuts and white)
PSA 9
Most Recent Sale: $190 (11/19/21)
Lowest Current listed: $205ish
All in all, Price for a psa 10 is about 1/10 of the high and has dropped far lower than i thought it would. In my opinion, if you want this card I would buy it right now. If you look at the pop reports , psa 10 has dropped to less of a share of the total pop somehow with the majority being psa 9. I don’t personally think this card will go back up to $5000 (god bless those souls that bought it then) but a card this popular and hard to grade can’t stay at this price forever. I may just have to pick up a second copy.
Edit: Since April there have been 1619 graded and 207 of those have been psa 10. PSA 10 share of the market has fallen from 14.3% to 13.6%. Just some data to get discussions going
Reading that someone paid $5k for a modern promo which now has a 500+ PSA 10 pop (and counting) is just a reminder that there is this whole other sphere of Pokemon card collecting that I do not understand and will never be a part of
1/18/22 Somehow 2 months flew by but I hope everyone had a happy new year and the year has started off good for them. It looks like grading of this card is finally slowing down and that PSA 10 seems to still be relatively hard to get. For a card less than 2 years old that was picked up directly by people or shipped to their house, its a tough grade. PSA 10 still also seems to be a good pickup still and has fallen far from its initial high. I still hold on to the belief that the card will eventually be on the rise once it settles and that PSA 10 will have higher demand once the supply begins to run dry. As for now, there are still a good amount being added but I do think the market over corrected and rubber banded itself from the almost $4,000 high. (still hard to believe it was that high) PSA 9 also seems to always be lower than previously observed. I think there are a few factors that are holding this card back currently including the initial high price, artwork that some don’t like, and the large initial wave that was seemingly pumped by hype-beasts and left a bad taste in peoples mouthes. I personally believe this card will have its time to shine but not without going through the growing pains its experiencing right now. I think PSA 10 is going to see at least another $100 drop and the pop will most likely increase another 1000 before it’s all said and done.
3/30/22
Final semester of school has been something else and yet another 2 months have passed since an update. We are also swiftly approaching the anniversary of this thread so lets see if this card has done anything of note in these recent months.
Over 20% of the cards total pop has been added in the past 2 months! All of those SD pikachus that were stuck in the lower tiers are finally coming through it seems. Despite this fact, only 100 more psa 10’s have been added making only 9.6% of the new cards added (pretty low for a modern card). It appears that that the grade distribution has stayed the same and even decreased for PSA 10 by a whole percentage point. Sales data is also reflecting this recent influx with prices continuing to decrease across the board with more listing than ever being on ebay. At current prices, the next few months especially will be a good time to pick up a PSA 10 copy of this card if you like it and still don’t have it as part of your collection. I still don’t know how many were distributed but it has to be in the low-mid 5 figure range and this could only be the beginning of an influx of this card and others like it. My condolences to anyone who bought this card in the 4 figure range. I still believe the pas 10 version of this card at least will recover in price… eventually, and hold a decent price in the 5-10 year future.
Wow I can’t believe it’s already been a year since I made this thread. At this point, I mainly use it for creating data points but I also like to get it out there to other people for their use and so the community can discuss it if they want to. I think a long term observation of this card is indicative to market trends as a whole and is a nice tool for any member who wants to see the progression of a modern (semi-rare) card and learn. I personally started this with money at the front of my mind but now actually thanks to thread I feel is if I have a deeper understanding of the market as a whole and can appreciate it for what it is more. With that being said, I’ll do the usual changes since the last update and I’ll do a year long progression as well.
First post on the new website! Life is as busy as ever but I wanted to do a 3 month check on the card for old times sake. With the economy rapidly changing every day and being completely different than it was 3 months ago, it’s fun to see if that had an effect on this card. The card remains the second most graded card of the 2020 English promos behind Charizard V with 52,916 graded in under 2 years! Only 7.7% of the newly graded Pikachu cards were PSA 10 which is drastically lower than the average of nearly 12%. PSA 9 price continues to decline to nearly under $100 which is great for people just trying to collect the card. The initial theory of the card being hard to grade due to its packaging is holding strong and it appears the majority of PSA 10 worthy cards were sent for grading over a year ago. This is evident with the percentage of new PSA 10’s being drastically lower than the average. This again is in sharp contrast to Charizard v which came in the ETB that has a 57% chance of being PSA 10. Overall, the card is seeing more grades than ever but PSA 10s are at an all time low. Price wise, PSA 10 price is reflecting the scarcity of the grade and the 9s keep decreasing as supply increases. There doesn’t seem to be any sharp declines that reflect the current state of the American economy. Let me know what y’all think!
Before school gets too busy for me I wanted to do another short analysis. Pop. report is still steadily climbing and there appear to be even more 7s and 8s being graded. Prices are seeing a nice decrease and I think they will hold this trend for a bit longer. If there was any thought that the SD charizard release would have any impact on this card that theory has been proven wrong. I still hold the belief that this card will stabilize and bounce back one day eventually and that right now and the coming months will be a good tie to add this card to your collection if you have not yet.
10/24/22
2 Month Update
Crazy 2 months for me personally in a good way and I haven’t really done much with the hobby. I still check the board regularly but there isn’t much catching my eye at this moment. An interesting note is there aren’t nearly as many psa 10s for sale. There are only 25 and the number of ones that are low priced are dwindling with a handful being in this $600 range. It appears while the PSA 10 supply is dwindling in both new grades and for sale, the psa 9 and overall pop is still readily available. We are seeing an even larger divide between the grade disparity which is what makes this card. I still don’t know exactly why a psa 10 hit is so low but the disparity is pretty apparent.
1/24/23
3 month update from the last time we(I) talked! The card is being graded at an even higher rate than it has before and while I haven’t gone back to check exactly, I believe this is in contention for the most grades in a 3 month period. Perhaps the backlog is being cleared or people are finding them and sending them. regardless, the initial theory 2 years ago of the card being a tough 10 still reigns supreme with the PSA 9 slightly taking a greater share and the PSA 10 staying at exactly 11.32% of the overall graded share. To put that number into perspective the Masaki promos have an overall 6.2% PSA 10 rate and 1997 carddass overall has a 14% PSA 10 rate. We talk about these sets as being nearly impossible to get a 10 and this card falls in between them! Very Interesting! In terms of sales the PSA 10 has stabilized at around $600 but the PSA 9 has still gone down in price. I don’t know or think the 9 will go below $100 but if it does, I may have to pick up a few. Looking back on this cards life over the past 2 years really puts the hobby into perspective and where it has gone from the top to where it is now. This card is long from dead and I’m happy to see it’s found its place in the hobby. I really couldn’t tell where it was going to go especially since it was released right in that 2020 boom that jumbled everything up. I still love this card and the journey it’s been on and as of right now, I’ll pull a @smpratte and label the PSA 10 as underrated and ungraded/PSA 9 as overrated for the reasons I have stated. I hope everyone has a nice winter/Spring and I’ll see y’all again in a few months!
Edit: 2 time periods had 1000 cards added and this is ranked 3rd in most cards added in a 3 month period!
The copy i got from pokemon center graded a 9, which im happy with, but i definitely want to pick up a 10 at some point. Looking like buying the 10 straight up is the best option. Its difficult to rationalize spending $600 USD on a modern card tho thanks for the updates
9/12/23
So I guess its been 8 months??? I hope everyone on here has been doing good. Honestly I’ve gotten away from the hobby a bit just doing some small stuff on the side but nothing crazy. Planning to finish graduate school, make the big bucks, and go in on some cards I’ve always wanted. It seems prices all across the board have come down cough cough (Trophy Kangaskhan). So lets see how our little buddy is doing…
Well it seems after further research that this card is pretty indicative of the overall hobby. As many of the people on here suggested 2-3 years ago, prices are steadily decreasing to their realistic numbers. I’m kinda surprised there aren’t more cards graded but at the same time, we’re probably getting to the end of the cycle where most people who have the card have graded it.
3/17/24
6 month update. Time just flies by. When I started this thread, I was in my 2nd year of undergrad. I’ve now graduated with my masters, gotten married, and found a nice job. I am finally getting back into the hobby with real money and there is no better time than right now. The card is still going down and people are still attempting to grade this card. I do genuinely believe there will be a time and place for this card in the mid to long range future. What the future looks like is uncertain right now; however, I do think it will be relevant again. I personally love this card and when it was released and how it was released. From happening during Covid to its sloppy packaging resulting in an 11% modern PSA 10 grading, this card has a story. I am not in the business of speculating, I am just making an observation that this card has the all thee qualities to be a sought-after card in the future. Get while the getting is good as the boomers say.
POP.
thanks for the updates 
