Recession talk + jump in sealed booster box prices

[randox]

@smpratte

@randox

Anything that doesn’t have cash flow won’t hold up well in a severe recession like 2008. Pokémon cards provide no way to support your family when unemployment is 10-20%… apart from selling them. I think anyone thinking high end Pokémon cards will hold up is extremely wishful thinking.

Wouldn’t that be a reason for people not to sell? They already have the reason of nostalgia not to sell. So if it’s also not easy to sell or drops in value, that would be another reason to keep.

High end is the lowest probability of dropping. They have the least supply and the buyers have the most discretionary income. It’s a win win for anyone who owns the items. Either they hold value, or prices drop and you can buy more of the best stuff if it appears.

I know a lot of overextended collectors in the hobby that have expensive cards (maybe not your definition of high end) and would not be able to withstand losing their job and holding onto their cards. I.e there is collectors that don’t have significant additional savings and instead most their money in Pokémon.

[sherotcg]

I can imagine higher end things will be okay. If people really need to sell and they own higher end stuff they will just sell off their lower end stuff first, then middle end if needs be. This stuff is more replaceable than higher end cards and any informed collector knows this.

[smpratte]

@randox

@smpratte

Wouldn’t that be a reason for people not to sell? They already have the reason of nostalgia not to sell. So if it’s also not easy to sell or drops in value, that would be another reason to keep.

High end is the lowest probability of dropping. They have the least supply and the buyers have the most discretionary income. It’s a win win for anyone who owns the items. Either they hold value, or prices drop and you can buy more of the best stuff if it appears.

I know a lot of overextended collectors in the hobby that have expensive cards (maybe not your definition of high end) and would not be able to withstand losing their job and holding onto their cards. I.e there is collectors that don’t have significant additional savings and instead most their money in Pokémon.

I agree, that is definitely a thing. I think that demograph is more abundant in the couple thousand dollar bracket. Typically 10k+ are going to be more specialized buyers. Where below can be a mixture of buyers; some in college spending everything, some just spending their disposable income.

I am a wait and see type person. It will be interesting to experience a modern recession. But if I had to draw a general line in the sand, I would say 10k is a price point where most of the drop will occur on sub 10k items.

[randox]

@smpratte

@randox

I know a lot of overextended collectors in the hobby that have expensive cards (maybe not your definition of high end) and would not be able to withstand losing their job and holding onto their cards. I.e there is collectors that don’t have significant additional savings and instead most their money in Pokémon.

I agree, that is definitely a thing. I think that demograph is more abundant in the couple thousand dollar bracket. Typically 10k+ are going to be more specialized buyers. Where below can be a mixture of buyers; some in college spending everything, some just spending their disposable income.

I am a wait and see type person. It will be interesting to experience a modern recession. But if I had to draw a general line in the sand, I would say 10k is a price point where most of the drop will occur on sub 10k items.

Yeah this a good point

[gottaketchumall]

@smpratte

I agree, that is definitely a thing. I think that demograph is more abundant in the couple thousand dollar bracket. Typically 10k+ are going to be more specialized buyers. Where below can be a mixture of buyers; some in college spending everything, some just spending their disposable income.

I am a wait and see type person. It will be interesting to experience a modern recession. But if I had to draw a general line in the sand, I would say 10k is a price point where most of the drop will occur on sub 10k items.

It will be interesting to see though awarded cards coming to market that weren’t previously available and to see what effect it has on that market. I hope we see some Full Art Pika auctions on eBay. I don’t think many of the super over extended collectors are straight up buying $5-$10k+ cards but I would imagine several if not a couple dozen of the previous winners of those such cards and likely other trophy type cards in Japan are people who in a good market don’t care to sell, but if unemployment rises and things get tougher I would imagine more of them spontaneously becoming sellers.

Definitely those staying liquid and having cash on hand will have buying opportunities of some kind during whatever recession we see next.

[KingPokemon]

The hobby experienced growth, as is the norm, during the last recession and subsequent horribly slow recovery by a dimwitted government. Now for three years of nice growth the hobby has outperformed expectations actually reaching record heights.

I will make this offer though. Anybody afraid of a drop due to an upcoming recession, hit me up. We’ll make a deal and make sure you don’t lose everything.

[smpratte]

@gottaketchumall, That is good point! Some winners cards definitely surfaced during the housing crash, nothing too crazy, but certainly a few appeared.

[pokecollectoramy]

Interesting to see how many people in here just KNOW the end of the world is coming. I’ve had tons of clients walk through my office claiming the same since the end of the recession/market downturn in 2011.

If you cannot afford to hold or add during a recession or any type of short term downturn you are OVERINVESTED and not diversified. Same as Gary, if you want to make a nice deal to get out before the apocalypse I would be a willing buyer (and I’m not even a huge Pokemon collector like Scott, Gary and others)

[KingPokemon]

@pokecollectoramy

Interesting to see how many people in here just KNOW the end of the world is coming. I’ve had tons of clients walk through my office claiming the same since the end of the recession/market downturn in 2011.

If you cannot afford to hold or add during a recession or any type of short term downturn you are OVERINVESTED and not diversified. Same as Gary, if you want to make a nice deal to get out before the apocalypse I would be a willing buyer (and I’m not even a huge Pokemon collector like Scott, Gary and others)

You may not be as big a collector but you waaaay more business savvy than most here:)

[pierce]

Recessions happen, I was in the MTG market in 2008 in a far less comfortable economic position than I am at the moment and for a ‘once in a lifetime’ event it wasn’t that bad, people still bought things, prices didn’t crater. I honestly barely noticed a recession was even happening, but I was already in a position where if I had no job I could live my life unchanged for years.

There was more availability on some things but to be honest, the things that suffered most were the slave cards that people wanted to play with, not the expensive ‘collectibles’ like power, graded, old sealed product etc.

People that are living paycheck to paycheck, are buying on credit or turning over inventory to stay afloat might suffer or find it hard in a recession, but if you’ve set yourself up responsibly and have good cash reserves I’d say there will be little affect. If anything more opportunities to buy higher end/rarer things will pop up due to more potential opportunity from people that can’t stay afloat.

I would expect to see heaps of PSA 9s and lower enter the market in a recession as well as a lot of sub $1000 PSA 10s and maybe some higher end stuff that people bought irresponsibly. Are you going to see high net worth individuals dump their positions though? No. Even less chance of that happening if the price is going down, why would someone that doesn’t need to sell, sell during the worst period of time to sell, it’s a ridiculous idea.

[qwachansey]

One look at my Instagram and seeing the people in college dropping their paycheck on $500 cards (no offense if you’re reading this lol) makes me think that if unemployment goes way up and it’s harder for college grads/entry level people to find jobs, there’s going to be a lot of people dumping these kind of cards.

[mtajaj32]

I think everyone on this thread is just talking past each other at this point lol. Seems we all agree on the core concept that a recession would trigger some low- and mid-tier collectors with low and mid-tier collectibles to sell off their collection to make ends meet thus causing market prices on low/mid-tier cards to dip, but the big kahunas wouldn’t be scared off by a recession and their top-tier collectibles would stay stable if not continue to progressively rise.

Seems to be the consensus:)

[pierce]

@mtajaj32

I think everyone on this thread is just talking past each other at this point lol. Seems we all agree on the core concept that a recession would trigger some low- and mid-tier collectors with low and mid-tier collectibles to sell off their collection to make ends meet thus causing market prices on low/mid-tier cards to dip, but the big kahunas wouldn’t be scared off by a recession and their top-tier collectibles would stay stable if not continue to progressively rise.

Seems to be the consensus:)

Good summary

[nppokemon]

Yeah even at these prices they are going fast. Seems like the singles market has calmed from the 2016/17 era. Now the same new found interest has shifted to more sealed product. First comes the surge of collector who want specific card and then a surge of sealed product comes after the fact. We will have these periods of ups and downs, I would always think that the singles or set market moves before sealed product when going up. May be the opposite when there is a bear market. Mostly because, from my experience, people will dump off the sealed product first.

[randox]

@qwachansey

One look at my Instagram and seeing the people in college dropping their paycheck on $500 cards (no offense if you’re reading this lol) makes me think that if unemployment goes way up and it’s harder for college grads/entry level people to find jobs, there’s going to be a lot of people dumping these kind of cards.

Correct.

[clubberlangx420x]

@nppokemon

Yeah even at these prices they are going fast. Seems like the singles market has calmed from the 2016/17 era. Now the same new found interest has shifted to more sealed product. First comes the surge of collector who want specific card and then a surge of sealed product comes after the fact. We will have these periods of ups and downs, I would always think that the singles or set market moves before sealed product when going up. May be the opposite when there is a bear market. Mostly because, from my experience, people will dump off the sealed product first.

I hope you are right. I’ve got about 12 grand for sealed boxes. I only have a few that I want for collection purposes, mainly Deoxys atm. Always on the look out for deals for singles and sealed product however.

[dok]

@pokecollectoramy

@randox

Anything that doesn’t have cash flow won’t hold up well in a severe recession like 2008. Pokémon cards provide no way to support your family when unemployment is 10-20%… apart from selling them. I think anyone thinking high end Pokémon cards will hold up is extremely wishful thinking.

2008 was once in a generation. 20% unemployment is an insane number lol If you cannot survive a run of the mill recession then you are over invested in collectibles and alternative investments. Recessions are buying opportunities.

Once in a generation? Thats naive thinking. Things are much much worse than 2008.

[kpod]

@dok

@pokecollectoramy

2008 was once in a generation. 20% unemployment is an insane number lol If you cannot survive a run of the mill recession then you are over invested in collectibles and alternative investments. Recessions are buying opportunities.

Once in a generation? Thats naive thinking. Things are much much worse than 2008.

Not for 99% of Americans

[Gotta_trade_em_all]

IMO, I don’t think a bear market will happen as long as Trumps in office.

[pokecollectoramy]

@dok

@pokecollectoramy

2008 was once in a generation. 20% unemployment is an insane number lol If you cannot survive a run of the mill recession then you are over invested in collectibles and alternative investments. Recessions are buying opportunities.

Once in a generation? Thats naive thinking. Things are much much worse than 2008.

Lol